Try the model
UVA

Virginia 21 at NC State 35

NCSU
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+14.8Score differential+7.3Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Time remaining+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:52: Ryan Finley pass complete to Cary Angeline for 14 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Christopher Dunn 44 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:48: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:11: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK) — UVA win probability +8.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:25: Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 16 yds for a TD (Ryan Finley pass to Emeka Emezie for Two-Point Conversion) — NCSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:07NCSU 4th & 4 at UVA 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:19NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:52UVA 4th & 1 at NCSU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:43UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:04NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:52UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:51NCSU 4th & 1 at UVA 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−1.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−6.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:55UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:11NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 49, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 4 at NCSU 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:25UVA 4th & 1 at NCSU 19, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:51UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:50NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:52NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:48NCSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:11UVA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:25NCSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:08UVA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:5372% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
72.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 10 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+39
72.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 39 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
72.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+5
72.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
72.1%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
72.0%
Christopher Dunn 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
71.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+7
71.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 7 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
71.9%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
71.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-2
72.0%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
72.1%
Lester Coleman punt for 41 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for no gain to the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
71.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
71.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+13
71.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 13 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
72.0%
C.J. Riley run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 13
OWN 41
0
71.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 13
OWN 41
0
71.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 13
OWN 41
+14
71.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 40 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 14 yds to the Virg 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:0129% → 33%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
71.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-3
71.0%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-5
71.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+23
71.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 23 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
70.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
70.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
70.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+1
71.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
66.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 35 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:0168% → 71%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.7%
Brady Bodine run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
68.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
68.1%
Brady Bodine run for 2 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
68.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
68.9%
Brady Bodine run for 2 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
68.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. Riley, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
68.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 8 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+3
68.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
68.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 6 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+17
68.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 17 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
68.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 29
-5
68.4%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 34
+7
68.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 27
+11
67.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 11 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+16
71.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 16 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
68.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+14
69.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 14 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-3
68.4%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
69.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Chris IngramSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
70.3%
Lester Coleman punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
69.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+16
69.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 16 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
70.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-7
70.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 46 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Kelvin Harmon) to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+2
69.5%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
69.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
68.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 45 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for no gain to the Virg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
69.6%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 14 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
69.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
69.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 14 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
67.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
67.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
68.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
69.8%
Lester Coleman punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:5070% → 81%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
69.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 12 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
70.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 16 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
71.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 27 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
72.4%
Brady Bodine run for 2 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
72.4%
Brady Bodine run for 7 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
72.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the Virg 16Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+1
70.1%
Ryan Finley run for 1 yd to the Virg 15 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ryan Finley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
72.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
81.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Cary Angeline for 14 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0622% → 21%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
78.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
78.7%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Nick McCloud return for no gain to the Virg 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:3582% → 86%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
81.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 5 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
81.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 6 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
80.8%
Ryan Finley run for 4 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+7
80.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+44
85.7%
Christopher Dunn 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
82.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-11
82.7%
Bryce Perkins sacked by James Smith-Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 17
OWN 14
+12
83.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 12 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
83.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:5186% → 96%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
85.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+29
85.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 29 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
86.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
86.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+15
85.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Bryce Hall) to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
86.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
86.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+14
85.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 14 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
86.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+5
86.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the Virg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 4:325% → 14%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
95.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
95.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Isaiah MooreSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+11
95.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+25
95.4%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 25 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+32
95.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 32 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
94.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the NCSt 6Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
94.6%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
86.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+17
90.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
90.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 48Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-3
90.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
90.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 12
OWN 49
+7
89.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 40 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 7 yds to the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 61 yds · 0:4010% → 11%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
89.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 14 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
88.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+17
88.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 17 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
88.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 16 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
86.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
86.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
87.8%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the NCSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 21
0
88.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares KellySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:4894% → 99%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
93.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+2
93.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+12
93.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 12 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
94.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 8 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-9
94.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+12
93.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Darrius Bratton) to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
94.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+38
94.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 38 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
94.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Terronne Prescod) to the Virg 16Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
99.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 16 yds for a TD (Ryan Finley pass to Emeka Emezie for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:171% → 5%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+26
99.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 11 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, roughing passer (Louis Acceus) to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
98.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 8 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+11
98.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 11 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
98.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+4
98.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
98.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Jordan Ellis, broken up by Larrell MurchisonSimilar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+8
98.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-9
98.7%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Larrell Murchison for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 19
OPP 20
+13
98.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 13 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
94.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19INT
15 plays · 43 yds · 1:225% → 3%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
50
+20
95.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 20 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-7
94.5%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Larrell Murchison for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+3
97.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 14
OPP 34
-5
97.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Jake Fieler) to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 19
OPP 39
-3
97.4%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Larrell Murchison for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 22
OPP 42
+15
97.6%
NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Deonte Holden) to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
96.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Jarius MoreheadSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
97.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Stephen GriffinSimilar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+15
97.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Tanner Ingle) to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
96.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 5 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
96.7%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Dexter Wright return for 1 yd to the NCSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 2Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 12
OWN 2
0
98.3%
TEAM run for no gain to the NCSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:48
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q2 0:52
Ryan Finley pass complete to Cary Angeline for 14 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q3 3:11
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds for a TD (Hunter Pearson KICK)
-8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com