2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:38 · Bailey Cate punt for 62 yds, downed at the VTech 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 3:40: Blake LaRussa run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +18.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:55: Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 25 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +22.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:57: Jeremy Cox run for 15 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +32.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:15: Ryan Willis pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 13 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +25.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:11: Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 29 yds for a TD VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined Brad Davis kickoff Steven Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 33 (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +34.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q1 13:36VT 4th & 6 at VT 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.9%average punt
- Q1 12:52ODU 4th & 6 at VT 43, tiedClose callPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.4%40% to convertField goal5.3%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call5.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:33VT 4th & 23 at ODU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.17% to convertField goal92.9%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q1 3:41ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.4%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q1 1:45VT 4th & 12 at VT 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.4%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%average punt
- Q2 15:00ODU 4th & 8 at VT 40, tiedClose callPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.6%34% to convertField goal10.6%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call10.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:18VT 4th & 4 at VT 37, tiedClose callPunted · 87.6% before the snapGo for it87.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:11ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it12.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.7%average punt
- Q2 3:50ODU 4th & 11 at VT 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snapGo for it11.0%−0.725% to convertField goalTheir call11.7%75% to makePunt8.9%−2.8average punt
- Q2 0:28ODU 4th & 1 at VT 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.7%71% to convertField goal13.3%−0.481% to makePunt9.7%−4.0average punt
- Q3 9:38ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snapGo for it12.4%−2.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.0%average punt
- Q3 7:58VT 4th & 4 at VT 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snapGo for it85.1%−0.447% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.5%average punt
- Q3 3:40VT 4th & 8 at VT 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snapGo for it68.0%−1.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.7%average punt
- Q3 1:56ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 38, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 34.4% before the snapGo for it35.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%−1.4average punt
- Q4 12:48VT 4th & 20 at VT 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snapGo for it54.3%−8.79% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.0%average punt
- Q4 7:15VT 4th & 3 at ODU 13, down 7Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 25.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.1%−1.250% to convertField goal25.3%85% to makePunt9.3%−16.0average punt
- Q4 5:11VT 4th & 4 at ODU 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.2%47% to convertField goal18.4%−0.774% to makePunt8.4%−10.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:14VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:38ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.2%97% to makeGo for two7.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:42VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:07ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.9%97% to makeGo for two18.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:38VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:40ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.0%97% to makeGo for two29.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:32VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.2%97% to makeGo for two80.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:55ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.7%97% to makeGo for two35.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:57ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.7%97% to makeGo for two68.3%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 7:15VT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.8%97% to makeGo for two50.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:11ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.9%97% to makeGo for two79.3%−1.645% to convert
- Q4 1:34ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%−0.597% to makeGo for two96.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+3
3.2%
Bailey Cate punt for 37 yds , Damon Hazelton returns for 3 yds to the VTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 56 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+30
3.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 30 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+22
3.6%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 22 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
3.7%
Bailey Cate punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Damon Hazelton at the VTech 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4TD1 play · 87 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:364% → 5%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for no gain to the ODU 25Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+37
4.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Hasaan Patterson for 37 yds to the VTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
5.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
5.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
50
+2
4.8%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Deshawn McClease for 2 yds to the ODU 48Similar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-9
4.8%
Josh Jackson sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 36Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 19
OPP 36
-4
5.0%
Josh Jackson sacked by Marcus Haynes for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-6
6.3%
Blake LaRussa sacked by Trevon Hill and Dylan Rivers for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 2Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 16
OWN 2
+12
6.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 12 yds to the ODU 14Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+38
6.1%
Bailey Cate punt for 38 yds , Damon Hazelton returns for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-7
6.6%
Josh Jackson sacked by Oshane Ximines for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 47 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+45
7.9%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 45 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 2:1692% → 91%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
8.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 8 yds to the VTech 10Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+14
8.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 14 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+3
9.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Phil Patterson for 3 yds to the VTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
VTDrive 12TD5 plays · 55 yds · 1:3291% → 93%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
6.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 28 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13MISSED FG13 plays · 55 yds · 3:528% → 9%
Q2 7:42
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+14
7.8%
Blake LaRussa sacked by Devon Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 41 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Devon Hunter) to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
8.6%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 25 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 14
OPP 23
+3
8.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 3 yds to the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14INT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0091% → 92%
ODUDrive 15TD13 plays · 79 yds · 1:329% → 20%
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+17
9.9%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 17 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
10.1%
LARUSSA, Blake pass incomplete to DUHART, J., PENALTY VT pass interference (Farley, C) 15 yards to the VT43, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
11.1%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 18 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
11.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 9 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
11.7%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Bryce WattsSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
11.7%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jonathan Duhart, broken up by Caleb FarleySimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+12
11.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 12 yds to the VTech 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17TD12 plays · 84 yds · 5:1784% → 90%
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+16
14.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 16 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
VTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 7:58
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
12.5%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric Kumah, broken up by Lawrence GarnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20TD9 plays · 65 yds · 3:3814% → 35%
Q3 7:18
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
15.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 5 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
14.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 5
50
+23
15.5%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Darrell Brown for 23 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+27
17.0%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 27 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
ODUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 1:56
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
31.8%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Lala Davis, broken up by Dylan RiversSimilar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+12
30.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 12 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
31.6%
Bailey Cate punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Damon Hazelton at the VTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23TD1 play · 72 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
14.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 72 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3716% → 43%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
15.7%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 8 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
17.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 7 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.7%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Bryce WattsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+26
16.8%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 26 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+25
42.6%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 25 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Q4 12:48
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
32.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Sean Savoy for no gain to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 5
OWN 38
-15
35.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 20
OWN 23
0
37.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Darrell Brown at the ODU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26TD6 plays · 67 yds · 1:1041% → 79%
Q4 11:07
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+15
39.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Houshun Gaines) to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
45.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 9 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+27
46.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 27 yds to the VTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4231% → 62%
ODUDrive 28TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0446% → 88%
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
45.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 19 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
50.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 8 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
52.0%
Blake LaRussa pass incomplete to Jeremy Cox, broken up by Rayshard AshbySimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
51.9%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Darrell Brown for 11 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+29
88.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 29 yds for a TD VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined Brad Davis kickoff Steven Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 33 (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29DOWNS11 plays · 44 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q4 5:11
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+17
82.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+16
74.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 16 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
72.8%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Sean Savoy, broken up by Justin NoyeSimilar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
75.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Eric Kumah, broken up by Joe Joe HeadenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 30TD10 plays · 79 yds · 0:5992% → 98%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
95.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jarrod Hewitt) to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 31END OF GAME12 plays · 50 yds · 1:132% → 2%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+19
98.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 19 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
98.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 11 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+16
98.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Eric Kumah for 16 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-3
98.3%
Ryan Willis sacked by Marcus Haynes for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:11
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 29 yds for a TD VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined Brad Davis kickoff Steven Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 33 (Nick Rice KICK)
+34.9
TD · Q4 9:57
Jeremy Cox run for 15 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)
+32.9
TD · Q4 7:15
Ryan Willis pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 13 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
-25.4