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JMU

James Madison 13 at NC State 24

NCSU
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Ben DiNucci pass incomplete to David Eldridge
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:18: Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 14 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 10:19: Ethan Ratke 19 yd FG GOOD — JMU win probability +4.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 6:59: Ethan Ratke 19 yd FG GOOD — JMU win probability +11.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:55: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 18 — NCSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:05: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5JMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00JMU 4th & 9 at NCSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:11NCSU 4th & 7 at JMU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−3.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:11JMU 4th & 11 at JMU 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00NCSU 4th & 22 at NCSU 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:19JMU 4th & 1 at NCSU 3, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%−2.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−9.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:13NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.3%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:59NCSU 4th & 10 at JMU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:59JMU 4th & 3 at NCSU 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−2.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 33, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:59JMU 4th & 3 at NCSU 3, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%−3.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−15.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3JMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:41JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:39NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:18NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:05NCSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
88.6%
Ben DiNucci run for 5 yds to the JMads 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-1
88.6%
Cardon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+24
88.6%
Ben DiNucci run for 24 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
88.6%
Cardon Johnson run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
88.6%
JMU Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-7
88.6%
Ben DiNucci run for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+4
88.6%
Ben DiNucci run for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
88.6%
Harry O'Kelly punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FUMBLE
13 plays · 60 yds · 0:0087% → 88%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
87.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 14 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
87.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 13 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.5%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
87.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+14
87.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 14 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
87.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+13
87.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 13 yds to the JMads 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
87.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
87.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the JMads 35Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+17
87.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 17 yds to the JMads 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
87.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 2 yds to the JMads 16Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-10
87.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the JMads 26Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 18
OPP 26
-5
87.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Tyler Baker-Williams for a loss of 5 yards Tyler Baker-Williams fumbled, forced by Dimitri Holloway, recovered by JMads Mike GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:5814% → 18%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
85.8%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Riley Stapleton for 5 yds to the JMads 37Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
85.7%
Marcus Marshall run for 6 yds to the JMads 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
85.6%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Kyndel Dean for 13 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
85.5%
Marcus Marshall run for 4 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+22
85.4%
Ben DiNucci run for 7 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Kishawn Miller) to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
85.3%
Marcus Marshall run for 6 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+7
85.3%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Mack Cullen for 7 yds to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.6%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Riley Stapleton for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Ratke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:2583% → 82%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
82.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for no gain to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-4
82.5%
Ryan Finley sacked by Ron'Dell Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+22
82.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 22 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
83.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+23
83.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 23 yds to the JMads 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
83.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+17
83.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 17 yds to the JMads 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
83.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the JMads 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
81.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the JMads 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
81.9%
Christopher Dunn 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.5%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Mack Cullen for 8 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
81.0%
Marcus Marshall run for 5 yds to the JMads 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
80.9%
JMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the JMads 33Similar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-5
81.5%
JMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the JMads 28Similar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
81.5%
Trai Sharp run for 5 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+2
81.5%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Josh Sims for 2 yds to the JMads 35Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+2
81.8%
Ben DiNucci run for 2 yds to the JMads 37Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+40
82.0%
Harry O'Kelly punt for 41 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 40 yds to the JMads 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:2981% → 84%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
81.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 11 yds to the JMads 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
81.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the JMads 26Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+10
81.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 10 yds to the JMads 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
81.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
84.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 16 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7FUMBLE
15 plays · 66 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
82.5%
Trai Sharp run for 1 yd to the JMads 25Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+7
82.6%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Riley Stapleton for 7 yds to the JMads 32Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
82.2%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to David Eldridge for 3 yds to the JMads 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
82.2%
JMU Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the JMads 30Similar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+10
82.5%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Clayton Cheatham for 10 yds to the JMads 40Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
81.5%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Josh Sims for 5 yds to the JMads 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
81.5%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Riley Stapleton for 6 yds to the NCSTATE 49 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Nick McCloud) to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
80.7%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Trai Sharp for no gain to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
80.7%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to David Eldridge for 13 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
80.6%
Trai Sharp run for 3 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
80.6%
Ben DiNucci run for 8 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
80.6%
Ben DiNucci sacked by Ibrahim Kante for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 15Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+9
80.9%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to David Eldridge for 9 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+20
81.1%
Ben DiNucci sacked by Ibrahim Kante for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 31 Ben DiNucci fumbled, recovered by NCSt Eurndraus Bryant , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds to the NCSt 31 Eurndraus Bryant fumbled, recovered by NCSt Isaiah Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 2:5081% → 87%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
80.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+7
80.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+10
80.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 10 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
82.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 12 yds to the JMads 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
82.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 7 yds to the JMads 37Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
82.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the JMads 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
82.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
82.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 8 yds to the JMads 25Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
81.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the JMads 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
82.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the JMads 14Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
82.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+14
87.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 14 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
86.4%
Cardon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.0%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Jakobi Meyers) to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
86.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Damien DardenSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-7
86.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
86.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
85.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 29 yds, downed at the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:3214% → 18%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
85.7%
Marcus Marshall run for 3 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
85.7%
Marcus Marshall run for 3 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+24
85.6%
Ben DiNucci run for 24 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
84.8%
Trai Sharp run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 15Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+4
85.1%
Trai Sharp run for 4 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+8
85.8%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Riley Stapleton for 8 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+19
81.8%
Ethan Ratke 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:1484% → 85%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
84.1%
Jakobi Meyers run for 3 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
84.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by D'Angelo AmosSimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+6
83.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+1
83.6%
Ryan Finley run for 1 yd to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
85.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 21 yds to the JMads 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
85.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the JMads 38Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+3
85.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the JMads 35Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+10
85.3%
JMU Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Wesley McCormick) to the JMads 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the JMads 25Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
85.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
85.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
85.2%
Christopher Dunn 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
82.3%
Ben DiNucci pass incomplete to Josh Sims, broken up by Tim Kidd-GlassSimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+13
82.6%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Josh Sims for 13 yds to the JMads 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
81.2%
Cardon Johnson run for 3 yds to the JMads 42Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
80.6%
Ben DiNucci pass incomplete to David EldridgeSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+11
81.9%
Ben DiNucci run for 11 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
79.9%
Cardon Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
79.9%
Cole Johnson pass complete to EJ Morgan for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
79.8%
Cole Johnson pass incomplete to Riley Stapleton, broken up by Alim McNeillSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
81.3%
Harry O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, downed at the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:5685% → 86%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
84.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
84.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+10
83.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 10 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
84.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
84.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+9
83.8%
Ryan Finley run for 9 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
85.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon, broken up by Matt TerrellSimilar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
86.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+8
86.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
86.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 44 yds, fair catch by D'Angelo Amos at the JMads 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15FG
15 plays · 74 yds · 7:1218% → 33%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
82.5%
Marcus Marshall run for 8 yds to the JMads 31Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
80.5%
Marcus Marshall run for 4 yds to the JMads 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
81.5%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Josh Sims for 12 yds to the JMads 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
79.7%
Marcus Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 45Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+4
81.4%
Ben DiNucci run for 4 yds to the JMads 49Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+9
80.5%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Riley Stapleton for 9 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
78.9%
Marcus Marshall run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
79.0%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+8
79.4%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Riley Stapleton for 8 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
77.2%
Marcus Marshall run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+26
77.4%
Marcus Marshall run for 26 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
76.7%
Cardon Johnson run for no gain to the NCSt 4Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
76.7%
Ben DiNucci pass incomplete to Josh SimsSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
78.5%
Ben DiNucci run for 1 yd to the NCSt 3Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+19
66.6%
Ethan Ratke 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 5:5080% → 97%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
80.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
80.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+8
79.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
80.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
80.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+39
79.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 39 yds to the JMads 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
84.0%
Trent Pennix run for no gain to the JMads 29Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
83.9%
Trent Pennix run for 1 yd to the JMads 28Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+10
89.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 10 yds to the JMads 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
90.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 12 yds to the JMads 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17END OF GAME
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:034% → 4%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.0%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Kyndel Dean for 2 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
95.8%
Ben DiNucci run for 5 yds to the JMads 32Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
95.5%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Marcus Marshall for 12 yds to the JMads 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
96.7%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Riley Stapleton for 26 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
95.4%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
95.6%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Riley Stapleton for 14 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
96.1%
Ben DiNucci pass incomplete to David EldridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 6:59
Ethan Ratke 19 yd FG GOOD
-11.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:55
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 18
+9.2
TD · Q4 1:05
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com