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FLA

Florida 41 at Florida State 14

FSU
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:49 · Logan Tyler punt for 38 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Home team on offense−43.5Pregame prior−2.6Score differential−24.2Garbage-time factor−14.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:25: Cam Akers 15 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 10:53: Josh Hammond 3 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +9.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:20: Trevon Grimes 22 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +12.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:16: Deondre Francois 4 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:53: Van Jefferson 38 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +7.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:26FSU 4th & 19 at FSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:14FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:36FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:31FLA 4th & 2 at FSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:47FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00FLA 4th & 2 at FSU 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:34FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 18, down 3
    Close callPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:43FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:49FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:55FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:35FLA 4th & 6 at FSU 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:56FLA 4th & 3 at FSU 44, up 6
    Close callPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:19FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:37FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:18FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 15, up 13
    Close callPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:44FSU 4th & 13 at FLA 36, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:49FSU 4th & 9 at FLA 26, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−3.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:22FLA 4th & 2 at FSU 7, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−3.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:49FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 7, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:33FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 25, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:00FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 31, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 13:24FLA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:25FSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:53FLA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:20FLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:16FSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:53FLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:56FLA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:3430% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
30.4%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Terry, Tamorrion, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Terry, Tamorrion) 12 yards to the FLORIDAST13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+1
30.5%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 21
OWN 14
-2
30.6%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 12 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+4
30.8%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
31.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 51 yds, downed at the Fla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1269% → 68%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
31.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+9
31.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 9 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
31.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
31.6%
Tommy Townsend punt for 54 yds, downed at the FlaSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3832% → 32%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
31.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 2 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+1
31.9%
Deondre Francois run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 7
OWN 8
-4
32.0%
Deondre Francois sacked by Adam Shuler II and Jachai Polite for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 11
OWN 4
+11
32.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 11 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:0568% → 67%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
31.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+7
32.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 7 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
32.2%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+8
32.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
32.2%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (Dontavious Jackson) to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
32.4%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
32.5%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
32.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.1%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the FlaSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 3:4434% → 35%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
33.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 6
-1
33.7%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+4
33.7%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Murray, Nyqwan, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Dean III, Trey) 4 yards to the FLORIDAST9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
34.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
34.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+3
34.7%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-5
34.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Brady Scott) to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 6
OWN 23
-5
34.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Brady Scott) to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+10
34.4%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Akers, Cam, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Joseph, Vosean) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
35.1%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
35.7%
D.J. Matthews pass incomplete to Gabe NabersSimilar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
35.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+11
34.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 54 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 11 yds to the Fla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:4765% → 66%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
35.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
35.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 6 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+9
35.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 9 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
34.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+39
34.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 39 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
33.9%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+7
34.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+2
34.7%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
34.2%
Evan McPherson 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2635% → 34%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
34.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+5
35.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+1
34.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
34.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 56 yds, downed at the Fla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
30.2%
Lamical Perine 74 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4129% → 28%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
29.3%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
28.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
28.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+10
27.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 52 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 10 yds to the Fla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5470% → 69%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
29.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
29.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-5
29.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jawaan Taylor) to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
30.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
30.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 48 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5428% → 27%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
28.4%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
28.6%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-4
27.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Brady Scott) to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
27.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
27.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:2071% → 74%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+54
29.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 54 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
28.6%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
26.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q2 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
27.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Brian Burns) to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
27.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
25.8%
Evan McPherson 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1027% → 37%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
27.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
27.1%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.0%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
26.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Naseir UpshurSimilar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
25.2%
Deondre Francois run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
26.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Naseir Upshur for 14 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
27.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 25 yds to the Fla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
37.4%
Cam Akers 15 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 4:2968% → 71%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
31.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
30.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
30.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
30.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-1
29.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+8
29.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 8 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
29.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
29.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-2
28.6%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+22
29.1%
Tommy Townsend punt for 37 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Ryan Farr) to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:3732% → 30%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
31.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 11 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
31.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
31.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-4
29.8%
Deondre Francois sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 14
OWN 29
-3
29.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 51 yds , Freddie Swain returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
30.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0770% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 14:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
30.0%
Lamical Perine run for 7 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
29.6%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
28.8%
Feleipe Franks run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
50
+6
28.3%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+12
28.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
27.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 16 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
27.6%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
27.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+8
26.8%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Stanford Samuels III) to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
26.2%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.4%
Josh Hammond 3 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1621% → 20%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.9%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
20.9%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
20.5%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
20.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 61 yds, downed at the Fla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1982% → 82%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
18.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 12
-5
18.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (C'yontai Lewis) to the Fla 7Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
18.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+2
17.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
18.3%
Tommy Townsend punt for 65 yds, downed at the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5019% → 18%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
19.1%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-1
19.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-2
18.0%
Deondre Francois sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 22 Deondre Francois fumbled, forced by Jachai Polite, recovered by Fla Cece Jefferson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
5.2%
Trevon Grimes 22 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:047% → 20%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.4%
Deondre Francois run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+36
7.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 36 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
8.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
8.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-3
8.1%
Deondre Francois sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 13
OPP 36
+32
7.2%
Deondre Francois run for 32 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.2%
Deondre Francois 4 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2386% → 97%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
12.9%
Lamical Perine run for 9 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
12.0%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Jaiden Woodbey for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+15
12.7%
Lamical Perine run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
11.5%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+1
11.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+14
10.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 14 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
10.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Martez Ivey) to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+38
2.7%
Van Jefferson 38 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24INT
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:044% → 3%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
3.7%
D.J. Matthews run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+31
3.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 31 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
3.6%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-5
3.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+4
3.4%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
3.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
3.0%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Trey Dean III return for 44 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:2098% → 98%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
2.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
2.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
2.4%
Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+20
2.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 20 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
2.0%
Kadarius Toney run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
1.8%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+3
1.8%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 2
OPP 7
0
1.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Dameon PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:332% → 2%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
2.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-3
1.9%
Deondre Francois sacked by Khairi Clark for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 13
OWN 4
+3
1.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 3 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 10
OWN 7
+1
1.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 38 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 3:5399% → 100%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
1.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+18
1.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
1.2%
Jordan Scarlett run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
1.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 2 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
0.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
0.1%
Jordan Scarlett 9 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
0.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
0.1%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Donovan Stiner return for no gain to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
0.1%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the Fla 23Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
0.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Nick Sproles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Tommy Townsend punt for 53 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 30Uncategorized
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
0.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 2 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
0.1%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+7
0.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+4
0.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:16
Deondre Francois 4 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)
+13.1
TD · Q3 6:20
Trevon Grimes 22 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick)
-12.9
TD · Q2 5:25
Cam Akers 15 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)
+10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com