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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreIDHO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:50 · Tommy Townsend punt for 24 yds, downed at the Fla 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:30: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 52 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:44: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 3 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:29: Josh Hammond run for 21 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — IDHO win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:22: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 34 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IDHO made the numbers' call on 13 of 14
- Q1 14:50IDHO 4th & 7 at IDHO 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 12:46IDHO 4th & 9 at IDHO 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q1 11:11FLA 4th & 1 at IDHO 5, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%67% to convertField goal98.7%−0.292% to makePunt98.2%−0.6average punt
- Q1 7:14IDHO 4th & 13 at IDHO 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 5:30IDHO 4th & 4 at IDHO 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 4:08FLA 4th & 4 at IDHO 19, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%47% to convertField goal98.9%−<0.177% to makePunt98.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00IDHO 4th & 6 at FLA 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%40% to convertField goal0.7%−<0.154% to makePunt0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:36IDHO 4th & 3 at FLA 25, down 35Close callKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%52% to convertField goalTheir call0.5%−0.166% to makePunt0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 5:16IDHO 4th & 6 at IDHO 36, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q2 1:50IDHO 4th & 5 at IDHO 30, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 10:53IDHO 4th & 7 at IDHO 28, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 6:43IDHO 4th & 7 at IDHO 22, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 5:50FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 24, up 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q3 1:02IDHO 4th & 15 at FLA 21, down 56Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.116% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%74% to makePunt-0.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 15:00FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 41, up 53Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 14:06IDHO 4th & 2 at IDHO 37, down 53Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:51IDHO 4th & 15 at FLA 49, down 53Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:42FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 31, up 53Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt100.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:32IDHO 4th & 1 at FLA 25, down 60Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%71% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.166% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9IDHO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 14:54FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 12:46FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:30FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:44FLA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:29FLA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:22FLA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:50FLA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:50FLA Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:43FLA Touchdown, up 59 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:47IDHO Touchdown, down 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.0%97% to makeGo for two0.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIDHODrive 1INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
99.5%
Mason Petrino pass intercepted for a TD Chauncey Gardner-Johnson return for 26 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 2PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
99.5%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 1 yd to the Idaho 23Similar
Q1 14:50
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+9
99.5%
Cade Coffey punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Idaho 47 , Van Jefferson returns for 9 yds to the Idaho 32 IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (Kaden Elliss) to the Idaho 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD3 plays · 47 yds · 0:4299% → 99%
IDHODrive 4PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
FLADrive 5DOWNS11 plays · 49 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 9 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+5
99.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 5 yds to the Idaho 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 7 yds to the Idaho 20Similar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 3 yds to the Idaho 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 6PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
FLADrive 7TD2 plays · 52 yds · 0:1799% → 99%
IDHODrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
FLADrive 9TD10 plays · 73 yds · 2:2499% → 100%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon Grimes, broken up by Lloyd HightowerSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+14
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 14 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 21 yds to the Idaho 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Van Jefferson, broken up by Lloyd HightowerSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 6 yds to the Idaho 19Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon Grimes, broken up by Kaden EllissSimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+16
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 16 yds to the Idaho 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 3 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 10DOWNS13 plays · 44 yds · 1:440% → 1%
FLADrive 11TD6 plays · 69 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
99.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 12 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
99.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 5 yds to the Idaho 48 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (Dorian Clark) to the Idaho 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+16
99.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 16 yds to the Idaho 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 12MISSED FG10 plays · 50 yds · 3:530% → 0%
FLADrive 13TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 11 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
99.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 25 yds to the Idaho 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 5 yds to the Idaho 34Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+34
99.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 34 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.8%
Mason Petrino pass complete to David Ungerer for 3 yds to the Idaho 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD6 plays · 76 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
IDHODrive 16PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 1:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Cade Coffey punt for 40 yds , Van Jefferson returns for 5 yds to the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18FUMBLE11 plays · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-4
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for a loss of 4 yards to the Idaho 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+12
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 12 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 13 yds to the Idaho 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-5
99.9%
Emory Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the Idaho 25 Emory Jones fumbled, recovered by Idaho Ed HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 19PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Nikhil Nayar pass incomplete to David Ungerer, broken up by Zachary CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD6 plays · 50 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
50
+16
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 16 yds to the Idaho 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Lucas Krull for 20 yds to the Idaho 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 7 yds to the Idaho 5Similar
Q3 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 4 yds for a TD (Jorge Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 21PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+3
99.9%
Nikhil Nayar pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for 3 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:50
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-5
99.9%
Emory Jones sacked by Ben Taliulu for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 23FG7 plays · 27 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q3 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+27
99.9%
Mason Petrino run for 12 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Antonneous Clayton Sr.) to the Fla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 15
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Cutrell Haywood, broken up by C.J. McWilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 5 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Emory Jones pass complete to Daquon Green for 3 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+8
99.9%
Jacob Finn punt for 38 yds , David Ungerer returns for 8 yds to the Idaho 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 25PUNT13 plays · 22 yds · 4:150% → 0%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
100.0%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Jeff Cotton for 3 yds to the Idaho 32Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Mason Petrino pass complete to David Ungerer for no gain to the Idaho 32Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+5
100.0%
PETRINO, Mason sideline pass incomplete, PENALTY UF offside (Houston,J.) 5 yards to the IDAHO37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to Jeff Cotton, broken up by C.J. McWilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-5
100.0%
Mason Petrino sacked by Jeremiah Moon for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Cade Coffey punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Van Jefferson at the Fla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26DOWNS6 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
100.0%
Iverson Clement run for 1 yd to the Fla 13 Iverson Clement fumbled, forced by Ty Graham, recovered by Fla Daquon GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 27INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+82
100.0%
Mason Petrino pass intercepted for a TD Ventrell Miller return for 82 yds for a TD (Jorge Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 28TD12 plays · 79 yds · 4:480% → 0%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
100.0%
Mason Petrino run for a loss of 3 yards to the Idaho 18 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Ryan Farr) to the Idaho 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
100.0%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Cutrell Haywood for 15 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
100.0%
Mason Petrino pass incomplete to David Ungerer, broken up by Amari BurneySimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
100.0%
Mason Petrino pass complete to David Ungerer for 2 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
100.0%
Mason Petrino pass complete to Jeff Cotton for 12 yds for a TD (Cade Coffey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 29END OF GAME5 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:44
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 3 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 5:30
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 52 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 10:29
Josh Hammond run for 21 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
-0.1