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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreFLA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:29 · D'Andre Swift run for 33 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:57: Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +6.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:35: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 36 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +13.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:33: Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 12 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +11.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:12: Evan McPherson 42 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +6.5 pts (now 22%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:39: Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UGA win probability +5.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 8:11UGA 4th & 4 at FLA 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snapGo for it68.6%40% to convertField goalTheir call68.5%−0.193% to makePunt67.6%−1.1average punt
- Q1 2:01UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 35, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snapGo for it71.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.0%average punt
- Q2 9:06UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 31, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it65.6%−1.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.8%average punt
- Q2 5:47FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 49, down 3Close callPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it33.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 3:59UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 20, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it66.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%−1.6average punt
- Q2 0:50FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snapGo for it28.7%−1.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%average punt
- Q3 7:22FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 38, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snapGo for it26.1%−1.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.3%average punt
- Q3 4:11UGA 4th & 9 at FLA 37, up 6Close callPunted · 74.9% before the snapGo for it75.0%32% to convertField goal74.6%−0.440% to makePuntTheir call74.2%−0.8average punt
- Q3 0:07UGA 4th & 1 at FLA 1, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snapGo for it78.1%59% to convertField goalTheir call73.7%−4.494% to makePunt62.2%−15.9average punt
- Q4 11:12FLA 4th & 3 at UGA 25, down 9Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snapGo for it15.7%52% to convertField goalTheir call14.2%−1.566% to makePunt5.6%−10.1average punt
- Q4 8:13FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 20, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it5.9%−0.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q4 1:50FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 45, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.9%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:07UGA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.2%97% to makeGo for two71.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:57FLA Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.4%97% to makeGo for two32.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:35FLA Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.6%97% to makeGo for two37.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:33UGA Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.0%97% to makeGo for two71.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:39UGA Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick93.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call93.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:29UGA Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%−0.497% to makeGo for two98.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1FG14 plays · 71 yds · 6:4472% → 72%
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
71.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 5 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+5
71.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
71.7%
Jake Fromm sacked by Vosean Joseph for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2FUMBLE4 plays · 20 yds · 0:3929% → 29%
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+32
71.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 12 yds to the Fla 13 Jordan Scarlett fumbled, recovered by Geo Richard LeCounte , return for 32 yds to the Fla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD3 plays · 13 yds · 0:5372% → 74%
Q1 6:07
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+16
73.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 16 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4INT7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2627% → 27%
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
72.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 2 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+13
72.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 13 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
73.1%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Tyrique McGhee return for 2 yds to the Geo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2374% → 74%
Q1 2:01
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
73.6%
Jake Camarda punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6TD16 plays · 76 yds · 6:5826% → 33%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
73.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 7 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
74.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon Grimes, broken up by J.R. ReedSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+10
74.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 10 yds to the Geo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+8
74.6%
Franks, Feleipe pass incomplete to Stephens, Moral, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Taylor, Juwan) 8 yards to the GEORGIA15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4070% → 68%
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
69.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 1 yd to the Geo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 2:5831% → 31%
Q2 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+5
68.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 5 yds to the Fla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2670% → 68%
Q2 3:59
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+3
67.7%
Jake Camarda punt for 57 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 3 yds to the Fla 23 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (11 Yards) to the Fla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5531% → 29%
UGADrive 11DOWNS9 plays · 75 yds · 0:4369% → 79%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
68.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 27 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+23
71.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 23 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+9
73.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 9 yds to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.6%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley Ridley, broken up by C.J. McWilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13TD4 plays · 48 yds · 1:1030% → 43%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
56.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 36 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD8 plays · 72 yds · 2:5762% → 77%
Q3 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+35
63.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 35 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
65.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 4 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+12
76.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 12 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 3:0327% → 26%
UGADrive 16PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 3:0478% → 77%
FLADrive 17FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
78.3%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the Fla 1 Feleipe Franks fumbled, forced by Tyrique McGhee, recovered by Geo Tae CrowderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18FG9 plays · 0 yds · 3:5381% → 86%
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.2%
Holyfield, Elijah rush for no gain to the FLORIDA1, PENALTY FLORIDA offside 0 yards to the FLORIDA1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
81.6%
Fromm, Jake pass incomplete to Holloman, Jeremiah, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (McWilliams, C.J.) 1 yards to the FLORIDA1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19FG10 plays · 50 yds · 3:4916% → 20%
Q4 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+15
82.1%
Jones, Emory pass incomplete to Jefferson, Van, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Campbell, Tyson) 15 yards to the GEORGIA32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
81.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for no gain to the Geo 32Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+15
80.4%
GEORGIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tyler Clark) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2186% → 95%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 15 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+15
85.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 15 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
88.0%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Jeremiah Holloman, broken up by C.J. McWilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
94.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:226% → 5%
Q4 8:13
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
94.6%
Tommy Townsend punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mecole Hardman at the Geo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22TD6 plays · 66 yds · 3:3195% → 99%
Q4 6:41
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+22
95.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 22 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23DOWNS7 plays · 20 yds · 2:102% → 2%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Moral Stephens for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
98.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 10 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-6
98.2%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Julian Rochester for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lucas Krull for 6 yds to the Fla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · 15 yds · 1:0599% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:35
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 36 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
-13
TD · Q3 10:33
Jake Fromm pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 12 yds for a TD (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
+11.1
FG · Q4 11:12
Evan McPherson 42 yd FG GOOD
-6.5