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LSU

LSU 19 at Florida 27

FLA
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2018 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:04 · Josh Growden punt for 37 yds, downed at the Fla 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Home team on offense−1.1Pregame prior+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−1.6Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:30: Lamical Perine 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +6.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:09: Moral Stephens 3 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +13.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:14: Nick Brossette 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — LSU win probability +27.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:48: Lamical Perine 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — FLA win probability +26.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:45: Brad Stewart Jr. 25 Yd Interception Return (Evan McPherson Kick) — FLA win probability +28.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 10:00FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:46FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:13LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:11LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 3, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:04LSU 4th & 7 at FLA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:33FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:10LSU 4th & 1 at FLA 15, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%−2.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−7.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:21LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:04LSU 4th & 3 at FLA 45, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−2.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:22FLA 4th & 18 at FLA 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−3.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:35LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:12FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 17, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:16LSU 4th & 6 at FLA 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−7.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:13FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−2.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:43LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−3.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:48FLA 4th & 10 at LSU 39, up 1
    Close callPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:24LSU 4th & 7 at FLA 45, down 1
    Close callPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−2.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:21FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:45LSU 4th & 19 at LSU 18, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−<0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:21LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:43LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:30FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:09FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:14LSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:48FLA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:45FLA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5245% → 46%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
55.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 38 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
55.3%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+13
55.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 13 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
55.2%
Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
55.2%
Nick Brossette run for 4 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
55.3%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the Fla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
55.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
55.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+7
55.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 7 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.0%
Nick Brossette 4 Yd Run (Cole Tracy Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3054% → 54%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
54.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
54.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
54.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
54.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
53.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:0146% → 48%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
53.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jonathan Giles for no gain to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
53.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 11 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
53.1%
Edwards-Helaire, Clyde rush for loss of 3 yards to the LSU32, PENALTY FLORIDA personal foul (Zuniga, Jabari) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
50
+6
52.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 6 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+16
52.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 16 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
52.0%
Joe Burrow sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 33 Joe Burrow fumbled, forced by Jachai Polite, recovered by Fla Kyree Campbell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5853% → 52%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
53.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Martez Ivey) to the Fla 28Similar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+1
52.9%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 14
OWN 29
0
52.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+13
52.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 13 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-5
52.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 37Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 6
OWN 37
-2
52.1%
Tommy Townsend punt for 48 yds , Jonathan Giles returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0748% → 48%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
52.1%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 12Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+9
52.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 21
-5
51.9%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
52.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 39 yds , Freddie Swain returns for no gain to the Fla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5253% → 52%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
53.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
52.6%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
52.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
52.1%
Tommy Townsend punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4948% → 48%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
52.1%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 6Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+5
51.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 11
-8
51.4%
Joe Burrow sacked by Vosean Joseph for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 3Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 12
OWN 3
-2
52.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 38 yds , Freddie Swain returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:3053% → 59%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
52.6%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+9
52.4%
Kadarius Toney run for 9 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
53.2%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+8
53.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Moral Stephens for 8 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
53.1%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+13
53.0%
Lamical Perine run for 13 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.9%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.9%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.3%
Lamical Perine 1 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:1644% → 44%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
56.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 13 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
55.0%
Stephen Sullivan run for 9 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
54.2%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
50
-1
53.9%
Chris Curry run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-6
54.7%
Joe Burrow sacked by Vosean Joseph for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+15
55.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Nick Brossette for 15 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 2
OPP 42
-5
55.1%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 47Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
56.1%
Josh Growden punt for 37 yds, downed at the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:2058% → 58%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
58.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 11 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
58.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 22Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
58.4%
Feleipe Franks run for 8 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
58.9%
Feleipe Franks run for no gain to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+1
57.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 49 yds , Jontre Kirklin returns for 1 yd to the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:5045% → 49%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
55.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 12 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
54.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 7 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
52.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
53.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
53.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 9 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+21
52.4%
Joe Burrow run for 21 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
51.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 5 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
51.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
52.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+33
50.7%
Cole Tracy 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3953% → 67%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+23
54.7%
Lamical Perine run for 23 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
55.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 11 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
57.1%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the LSU 31 FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jawaan Taylor) to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 17
OPP 41
+3
53.5%
Kadarius Toney run for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+35
53.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 35 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.3%
Moral Stephens 3 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:3434% → 32%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.1%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
66.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
67.0%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
67.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:1664% → 64%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
64.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
64.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15INT
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:1566% → 66%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+62
65.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 49 yds to the FLORIDA 26 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Divinity Jr.) to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
65.9%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted, touchback. Grant Delpit return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0638% → 40%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
61.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+23
60.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
58.7%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
50
+3
58.2%
Nick Brossette run for 3 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+2
58.8%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
60.2%
Josh Growden punt for 37 yds for a 1ST down , Freddie Swain returns for no gain to the Fla 45 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2263% → 64%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
62.5%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
65.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 1 yd to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+2
64.8%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 4
OWN 29
-14
64.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kadarius Toney) to the Fla 15Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 18
OWN 15
0
63.6%
Tommy Townsend punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2838% → 34%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
62.3%
Burrow, Joe pass complete to Moreau, Foster for 26 yards to the FLORIDA32, PENALTY LSU holding (Charles, Saahdiq) 10 yards to the LSU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 20
OWN 32
0
64.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Jonathan GilesSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 20
OWN 32
-1
65.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 21
OWN 31
+12
66.5%
Joe Burrow run for 12 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
66.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4866% → 65%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
66.2%
Feleipe Franks run for 6 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+2
66.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+1
65.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 1 yd to the Fla 17Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+14
64.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 39 yds , Jonathan Giles returns for 14 yds to the Fla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4439% → 42%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
61.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Foster Moreau for 14 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
59.3%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
59.8%
Derrick Dillon run for no gain to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+4
59.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 4 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
57.8%
Cole Tracy 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4361% → 58%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
60.7%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 20Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
60.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
58.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Lamical PerineSimilar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+22
57.7%
Tommy Townsend punt for 70 yds , Jonathan Giles returns for 22 yds to the LSU 42 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1740% → 37%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
59.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
60.2%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-5
61.6%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Austin Deculus) to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+6
62.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 6 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
63.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 61 yds, downed at the Fla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:4561% → 61%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
61.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 9 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+10
62.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 10 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
61.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+9
65.3%
Kadarius Toney run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
50
+6
66.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 46 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Fla Kadarius Toney Kadarius Toney run for 6 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+15
62.6%
Franks, Feleipe pass incomplete, PENALTY LSU pass interference 15 yards to the LSU39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
66.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
64.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+5
64.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 5 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
64.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Kadarius ToneySimilar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
60.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:2640% → 76%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
60.1%
Nick Brossette run for 31 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
54.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+47
55.2%
Nick Brossette run for 47 yds to the Fla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (1 Yards) to the Fla 1Similar
Q4 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.2%
Nick Brossette 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2034% → 69%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
33.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 26 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+17
38.3%
Lamical Perine run for 17 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
41.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon GrimesSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
42.0%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+12
39.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 12 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
42.0%
Lucas Krull pass complete to Feleipe Franks for 15 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.6%
Lamical Perine 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:1140% → 43%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
60.5%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
62.4%
Joe Burrow run for 13 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
57.6%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Jefferson, Justin, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Dean III, Trey) 15 yards to the FLORIDA48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
53.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
52.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the Fla 45Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
52.6%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
57.5%
Josh Growden punt for 41 yds, downed at the Fla 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:4461% → 69%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
61.0%
Kadarius Toney run for 4 yds to the Fla 8Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
60.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+5
60.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
62.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Fla 19Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+8
62.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
62.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
67.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 29Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
66.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+5
64.2%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+7
69.3%
Tommy Townsend punt for 61 yds , Jonathan Giles returns for 7 yds to the LSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 28INT TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:1534% → 6%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
66.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Dee Anderson for 6 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 18
0
66.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+25
94.2%
Brad Stewart Jr. 25 Yd Interception Return (Evan McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 29INT
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:087% → 5%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
93.5%
Joe Burrow sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-8
94.9%
Joe Burrow sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 19
OWN 18
0
95.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 19
OWN 18
+23
95.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 23 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.5%
Joe Burrow pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
94.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
95.1%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
95.5%
Joe Burrow pass intercepted Donovan Stiner return for no gain to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2197% → 97%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
97.2%
LSU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 5
OWN 39
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:45
Brad Stewart Jr. 25 Yd Interception Return (Evan McPherson Kick)
+28.1
TD · Q4 11:14
Nick Brossette 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-27.9
TD · Q4 8:48
Lamical Perine 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+26.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com