Try the model
FLA

Florida 13 at Mississippi State 6

MSST
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.9MSST 68.1%Jace Christmann 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 6 · Q2 3:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:30 · Jace Christmann 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Pregame prior+10.5Home team on offense+3.2Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:26: Kadarius Toney pass complete to Moral Stephens for 20 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +16.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:09: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lucas Krull for 6 yds to the MisSt 34 — FLA win probability +6.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 5:22: Evan McPherson 21 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +8.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:11: Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 20 — MSST win probability +5.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:54: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 47 — FLA win probability +8.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:22MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:37FLA 4th & 19 at FLA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:28MSST 4th & 2 at FLA 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:24FLA 4th & 11 at MSST 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:30MSST 4th & 8 at FLA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:48FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.9%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:14MSST 4th & 7 at FLA 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:39MSST 4th & 11 at FLA 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%−2.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:50FLA 4th & 9 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:21MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−1.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:54FLA 4th & 7 at MSST 34, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−0.8
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:35MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:25FLA 4th & 1 at MSST 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−5.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−20.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:22FLA 4th & 2 at MSST 4, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%−4.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−21.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:33MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 20, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:19FLA 4th & 8 at MSST 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:02MSST 4th & 10 at FLA 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−3.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 8:26FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2669% → 68%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
68.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+1
68.7%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
68.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
68.4%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:4532% → 32%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
68.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jawaan Taylor) to the Fla 26Similar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+18
68.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 18 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
68.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 4 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+9
68.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 9 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
67.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Fred Johnson) to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 15
OPP 48
-10
67.9%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Gerri Green for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 42Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 25
OWN 42
0
68.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Jordan ScarlettSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 25
OWN 42
+6
68.1%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 19
OWN 48
+28
68.2%
Tommy Townsend punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MISSSTATE 9 FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Trey Dean III) to the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 6:0268% → 69%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
68.1%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
67.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 8 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
67.9%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
68.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
50
+5
68.3%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+9
68.4%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
68.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+4
68.5%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
68.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Fla 24Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
68.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
68.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Fla 17Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
68.5%
Jace Christmann 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FG
19 plays · 68 yds · 7:5632% → 35%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
68.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Fred Johnson) to the Fla 5Similar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+5
68.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+9
68.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 9 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+3
68.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
67.9%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 23Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+11
68.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 11 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
67.6%
Kadarius Toney run for 4 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+12
66.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
50
-10
66.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
66.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
50
+9
66.2%
Lamical Perine run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+4
66.0%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
66.1%
Kadarius Toney run for 16 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
65.2%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+1
65.1%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-5
65.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Fred Johnson) to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+1
66.2%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+39
64.8%
Evan McPherson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:3966% → 68%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
65.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+15
65.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 15 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
66.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
65.8%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
66.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
67.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
67.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 3
OPP 32
-3
68.2%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by CJ Henderson for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+11
67.3%
Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
68.2%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
68.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 3
OPP 17
-5
67.2%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
68.1%
Jace Christmann 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:3033% → 32%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
67.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
67.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+18
68.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 18 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
64.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
66.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-2
66.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
67.8%
Tommy Townsend punt for 50 yds, downed at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3366% → 66%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
66.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
66.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 8 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 2
OWN 31
-5
68.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-11
66.6%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+17
64.8%
Aeris Williams run for 17 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
65.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2833% → 35%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
65.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
64.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kyree Campbell) to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+9
67.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 9 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+3
65.2%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+7
65.5%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Cameron Dantzler return for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5671% → 68%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
50
0
70.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
50
0
70.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 10
50
+3
68.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 3 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 7
OPP 47
+11
67.6%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 31 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 11 yds to the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:2934% → 53%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
66.4%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+8
66.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 8 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+6
65.1%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
64.2%
Lamical Perine run for 22 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
63.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 16 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
46.9%
Kadarius Toney pass complete to Moral Stephens for 20 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3653% → 47%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
52.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
55.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
54.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+11
51.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 11 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
54.6%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
55.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
53.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
49.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
47.4%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:3755% → 59%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
45.4%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 13Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+10
45.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 10 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
43.9%
Feleipe Franks run for 4 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
41.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 1 yd to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+9
43.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kyle Pitts for 9 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
40.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 12 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
38.0%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
36.9%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
37.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 4
OPP 45
-5
39.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (Tommy Townsend) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 9
50
0
41.4%
Tommy Townsend punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0944% → 40%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
43.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 4 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
43.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
41.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 4
OWN 21
-2
40.4%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 34 yds , Freddie Swain returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1664% → 63%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
36.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 20 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
35.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
35.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
34.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
37.4%
Tommy Townsend punt for 28 yds, downed at the MisSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4741% → 37%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-4
41.3%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Vosean Joseph for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 2Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 14
OWN 2
0
40.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 14
OWN 2
+5
39.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jabari Zuniga) to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 7
0
38.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 9
OWN 7
0
37.3%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:4769% → 85%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
30.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lucas Krull for 6 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+12
29.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 12 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
28.5%
Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
27.6%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
27.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the MisSt 13Similar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+1
29.7%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
24.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
24.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+6
23.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 6 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+21
15.5%
Evan McPherson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3823% → 20%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
22.5%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
21.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
21.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
19.8%
Tucker Day punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5685% → 87%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
15.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 7 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+14
13.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 14 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
11.0%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 48 Feleipe Franks fumbled, recovered by Fla Feleipe FranksSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+6
11.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 6 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
10.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
12.7%
Tommy Townsend punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:5816% → 14%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
15.8%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 6Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+17
15.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Vosean Joseph) to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
15.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
16.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 17 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
20.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
18.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
16.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 10
OPP 45
-10
13.9%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Donovan Stiner for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20Uncategorized
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:3995% → 95%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-2
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:26
Kadarius Toney pass complete to Moral Stephens for 20 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
-16.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:54
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 47
-8.9
FG · Q4 5:22
Evan McPherson 21 yd FG GOOD
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com