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FLA

Florida 47 at Tennessee 21

TENN
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGSAFETYTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:00 · Tommy Townsend punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Home team on offense−36.5Score differential−17.7Garbage-time factor−9.5Pregame prior−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:52: Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +3.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:42: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 65 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +12.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:44: Jordan Scarlett run for 19 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +4.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:22: Madre London run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +3.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:04: Jeremy Banks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Keller Chryst pass to Jauan Jennings for Two-Point Conversion) — TENN win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:31FLA 4th & 5 at TENN 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:27TENN 4th & 4 at FLA 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:13TENN 4th & 2 at FLA 15, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:37FLA 4th & 5 at TENN 44, up 11
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:04TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.0%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:37FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 17, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:15FLA 4th & 4 at TENN 8, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.7
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:00FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 9, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:42FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 20, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:14TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 35, down 27
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:01FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 23, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:48TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 23, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:53FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 32, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:08TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 13, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 6:50FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:52FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:42FLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:44FLA Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:22TENN Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:17FLA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:04TENN Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:54FLA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2461% → 60%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 12 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
39.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Moral Stephens for 11 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
39.3%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Alexis Johnson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+2
39.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 15
OWN 43
-5
39.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 20
OWN 38
+15
40.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 15 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
40.1%
Tommy Townsend punt for 38 yds, downed at the Tenn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:0440% → 41%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
40.3%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+2
40.4%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+15
40.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 15 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
41.1%
Tim Jordan run for 1 yd to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
41.1%
Tim Jordan run for 2 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+1
41.1%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 10 yards to the Tenn 21 Jarrett Guarantano fumbled, recovered by Fla David Reese II , return for 0 yards , return for 1 yd to the Tenn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:0060% → 62%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
40.3%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 24Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+23
40.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 23 yds to the Tenn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to R.J. Raymond for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4INT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:0739% → 38%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
38.7%
Jarrett Guarantano run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 23Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-11
38.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (Trey Smith) to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
38.5%
Jarrett Guarantano run for no gain to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+5
38.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted Luke Ancrum return for 5 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1063% → 66%
Q1 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
37.3%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.7%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:1335% → 34%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.2%
Tim Jordan run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
35.2%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 28Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+28
33.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 28 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
34.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Drew Richmond) to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+3
34.3%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
34.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+8
34.0%
Ty Chandler run for 8 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 1:27
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
34.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Dominick Wood-AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
32.0%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 34 Lamical Perine fumbled, forced by Alontae Taylor, recovered by Tenn Kyle Phillips , return for 2 yds to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5135% → 35%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
34.6%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 36Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+6
34.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 6 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+7
33.9%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 7 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
34.3%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
34.3%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-1
33.3%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
35.2%
Brent Cimaglia 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2767% → 67%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
33.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
32.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+1
32.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
33.2%
Tommy Townsend punt for 42 yds, downed at the Tenn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10SF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:1634% → 33%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
33.8%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the Tenn 2Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-2
32.7%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
21.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 65 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:1924% → 24%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
23.7%
Ty Chandler run for 13 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
24.0%
Madre London run for 7 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
24.3%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
23.7%
Madre London run for no gain to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+54
24.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Austin Pope for 54 yds Austin Pope fumbled, forced by CJ Henderson, recovered by FlaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1380% → 80%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
19.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 6 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-9
19.0%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 27 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (C'yontai Lewis) to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
19.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
19.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Kemore GambleSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
19.6%
Tommy Townsend punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14FUMBLE
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:1722% → 21%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
22.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+36
21.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 36 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
23.2%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+6
23.0%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+4
22.3%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Fla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-13
22.5%
Madre London run for 2 yds to the Fla 20 TENNESSEE Penalty, Personal Foul (Austin Pope) to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 23
OPP 35
0
21.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 23
OPP 35
+12
21.1%
Madre London run for 12 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 11
OPP 23
-3
20.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Fla Khairi ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:3084% → 88%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+34
16.4%
Kadarius Toney run for 34 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
15.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
15.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 9 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+17
14.0%
Feleipe Franks run for 17 yds to the Tenn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
12.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
12.6%
Feleipe Franks run for 6 yds to the Tenn 8Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
12.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
11.9%
Evan McPherson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
15.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
7.2%
Jordan Scarlett run for 19 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 1:528% → 7%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
8.1%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
8.0%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
7.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 17 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
8.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trey Dean III) to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
8.8%
Tim Jordan run for 3 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
9.0%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+15
8.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (CJ Henderson) to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
8.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-5
8.5%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 15
OPP 24
0
8.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 15
OPP 24
+41
6.9%
Brent Cimaglia 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2094% → 94%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
6.3%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 16Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
5.9%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 7
OWN 16
-7
5.9%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Kyle Phillips for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 9Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 14
OWN 9
0
6.1%
Tommy Townsend punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
50
0
6.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass intercepted Brad Stewart Jr. return for no gain to the Fla 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:1095% → 95%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
5.5%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
5.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
5.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to C'yontai LewisSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
5.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+6
5.5%
Tommy Townsend punt for 58 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for 6 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:065% → 5%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
5.4%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the Tenn 28Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
4.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 7 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
4.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
4.8%
Joe Doyle punt for 47 yds, downed at the Fla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5996% → 97%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
4.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+2
3.7%
Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+5
3.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 5 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 1
OWN 27
-4
2.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the Fla 23Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
3.3%
Tommy Townsend punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:335% → 8%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
4.7%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+4
4.3%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+5
4.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (James Houston IV) to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
4.5%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+43
4.2%
Madre London run for 43 yds to the Fla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
4.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 8 yds to the Fla 8Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+4
4.2%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.2%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Fla 4Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.5%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dominick Wood-AndersonSimilar
Q3 2:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
4.4%
Chryst, Keller pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Taylor, Jeawon) 0 yards to the FLORIDA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENNESSEE.Similar
Q3 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
4.9%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the Fla 1Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.5%
Madre London run for no gain to the Fla 1Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.3%
Madre London run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5096% → 99%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
3.6%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
3.5%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
3.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 7 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
3.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
3.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Moral Stephens for 16 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
0.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 38 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:132% → 1%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
1.8%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+3
0.7%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
0.7%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 8
OWN 23
-4
0.6%
Joe Doyle punt for 44 yds , Freddie Swain returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5599% → 100%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
0.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jawaan Taylor) to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+3
0.6%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+3
0.6%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+2
0.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
0.5%
Tommy Townsend punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:411% → 4%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
0.5%
Jeremy Banks run for 2 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
0.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+25
0.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 25 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
0.4%
Jeremy Banks run for 9 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+2
0.4%
Jeremy Banks run for 2 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
0.4%
Madre London run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+15
0.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (CJ Henderson) to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
0.4%
Madre London run for 1 yd to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
0.3%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+11
0.3%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 11 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+10
0.4%
Jeremy Banks run for 7 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (Kyree Campbell) to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.3%
Jeremy Banks run for 2 yds to the Fla 2Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.5%
Jeremy Banks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Keller Chryst pass to Jauan Jennings for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 29TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
0.3%
Dameon Pierce run for 47 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
0.2%
Jeremy Banks run for 5 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+4
0.2%
Keller Chryst run for 4 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 17
-4
0.2%
Jeremy Banks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 13Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
0.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 41 yds, downed at the Fla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
0.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
0.2%
Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+14
0.2%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 14 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
0.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
0.1%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:42
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 65 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
-12
TD · Q3 14:44
Jordan Scarlett run for 19 yds for a TD, (Evan McPherson KICK)
-4.9
TD · Q3 1:22
Madre London run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com