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CSU

Colorado State 10 at Florida 48

FLA
2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:16 · Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:49: Jordan Scarlett run for 30 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +2.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:24: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 18 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +2.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Wyatt Bryan 53 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:27: K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Trey McBride for 48 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:21: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 38 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:59CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 24, tied
    Close callWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:48FLA 4th & 6 at CSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:48CSU 4th & 1 at FLA 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:26CSU 4th & 1 at FLA 23, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:14FLA 4th & 12 at CSU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:33CSU 4th & 12 at FLA 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:08CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:02CSU 4th & 24 at CSU 28, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00CSU 4th & 21 at FLA 35, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:27FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:58CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:08FLA 4th & 6 at CSU 48, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:25CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:21CSU 4th & 1 at FLA 35, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:21CSU 4th & 8 at FLA 32, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:17CSU 4th & 4 at FLA 18, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:49FLA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:24FLA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:27CSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:21FLA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:17FLA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
94.1%
Feleipe Franks run for 2 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Jordan ScarlettSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Tommy Townsend punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
93.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 21Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
93.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Izzy Matthews, broken up by Kylan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+3
93.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 3 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 6
OWN 24
-13
93.9%
Ryan Stonehouse run for a loss of 13 yards to the ColSt 11 Ryan Stonehouse fumbled, forced by James Houston IV, recovered by Fla Josh HammondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3794% → 93%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
93.6%
Feleipe Franks run for 5 yds to the ColSt 6Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-5
93.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 11Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 0
+4
93.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 4 yds to the ColSt 7 COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the ColSt 7Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
93.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
93.3%
Evan McPherson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 6:227% → 9%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
93.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 21 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
93.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
93.1%
Rashaad Boddie run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 6
50
+8
93.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 8 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
93.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 4 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+5
93.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 5 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
93.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
93.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for no gain to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
93.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
93.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 2 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+41
91.5%
Wyatt Bryan 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
91.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
91.6%
Feleipe Franks run for 11 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
91.6%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
91.7%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted V.J. Banks return for no gain to the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
91.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Fla Elijah ConliffeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5692% → 92%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
91.7%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
91.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
91.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
91.6%
Evan McPherson 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:419% → 9%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
91.5%
CARTA-SAMUELS rush up middle for no gain to the CSU25 (Polite,J.), PENALTY UF personal foul (Dunlap,M.) 15 yards to the CSU40, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
91.3%
Preston Williams run for 7 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
91.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
91.1%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
91.2%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Adam Prentice for 9 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
90.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
90.2%
Marcus McElroy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
90.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
90.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+53
91.4%
Wyatt Bryan 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:4492% → 94%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
91.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Jordan Scarlett for 8 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
91.8%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
91.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 24 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
91.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for no gain to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
94.3%
Jordan Scarlett run for 30 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 0:417% → 7%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
93.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-13
93.3%
CARTA-SAMUELS DL pass complete to JOHNSON, O. for 14 yards to the CSU40 (Stiner,D.), PENALTY CSU pass interference (WISE, D.) 13 yards to the CSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+12
93.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 12 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.4%
STONEHOUSE, R. punt 60 yards to the UF15, Swain,F. return to the UF20 (FRANCIS, T.;WATSON, J.), PENALTY CSU illegal shift 5 yards to the CSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+22
93.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 46 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 22 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 3:1394% → 97%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
93.9%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+8
93.9%
Lamical Perine run for 8 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
93.9%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
93.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+9
93.6%
Kadarius Toney run for 9 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
96.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 18 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT TD
9 plays · 3 yds · 2:204% → 1%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.5%
Rashaad Boddie run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
96.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
96.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 16 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
96.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Jeremiah Moon and Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 17
OWN 35
0
96.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Rashaad BoddieSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 17
OWN 35
-7
96.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 24
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt blocked by blocked by Tyrie Cleveland return for no gain for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 13 yds · 3:531% → 2%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 7 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+3
99.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+6
99.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 6 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
99.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 6 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
99.6%
Preston Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 25Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-15
99.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 15 yards to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 26
OPP 40
0
99.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, intentional grounding (K.J. Carta-Samuels) to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 26
OPP 40
+5
99.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Trey McBride for 5 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 21
OPP 35
+53
98.2%
Wyatt Bryan 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:333% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+1
96.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
96.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
96.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Trey McBride for 7 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
96.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Tyler Bjorklund) to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+2
97.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+9
97.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 9 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+8
96.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 8 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
94.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Trey McBride for 48 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 6 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
94.9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 14 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
95.2%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Rashad Ajayi for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+5
95.0%
Jordan Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Fla 47Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
94.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 8
OWN 47
-5
94.6%
FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
94.6%
Tommy Townsend punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
94.8%
Marcus McElroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-11
94.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by CJ Henderson for a loss of 11 yards to the ColSt 17 K.J. Carta-Samuels fumbled, recovered by ColSt Marcus McElroy , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 17
OWN 17
+9
95.1%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 9 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
95.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
96.0%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-10
96.0%
Perine,L. rush left for 10 yards to the UF29, out-of-bounds (BANKS, V.J.), PENALTY UF personal foul (Stephens,M.) 10 yards to the UF9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+17
95.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 17 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
96.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
96.1%
Lamical Perine run for 8 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-1
96.3%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+10
96.2%
Lamical Perine run for 10 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
96.3%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-10
96.3%
Franks,F. rush over left end for 5 yards to the CSU42, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UF holding (Buchanan,N.) 10 yards to the UF43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+3
96.1%
Jordan Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+6
96.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Jordan Scarlett for 6 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
95.9%
Tommy Townsend punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT RETURN TD
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:414% → 1%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
96.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+10
96.3%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 10 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.3%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
96.4%
K.J. Carta-Samuels run for 3 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+10
96.8%
CARTA-SAMUELS sideline pass intercepted by Stewart,B. at the CSU35, Stewart,B. return to the CSU0, clock 13:58, PENALTY UF holding (Dean,T.) 10 yards to the CSU36, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.5%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
96.6%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Trey McBride, broken up by Vosean JosephSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
96.7%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 10
OWN 36
-5
96.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Ross Reiter) to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+85
99.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 54 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 85 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Darius Wise for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+12
99.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 12 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+20
99.0%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Preston Williams for 20 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
98.8%
K.J. Carta-Samuels sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 46 K.J. Carta-Samuels fumbled, recovered by Fla Vosean Joseph , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds to the Fla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:4799% → 100%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
99.2%
Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+8
99.2%
Feleipe Franks run for 8 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
99.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 38 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+31
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Preston Williams for 16 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Trey Dean III) to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
99.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 7 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Marcus McElroy run for no gain to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Collin Hill run for 1 yd to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Marcus McElroy run for 2 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston Williams, broken up by Trey Dean IIISimilar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Preston WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
99.9%
Dameon Pierce run for 68 yds for a TD (Jorge Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 57 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
99.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 28 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
99.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
99.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 12 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
99.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to EJ Scott for 7 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 3
OPP 17
-1
99.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 18Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 4
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to EJ Scott, broken up by Brian EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
100.0%
Dameon Pierce run for 8 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Dameon Pierce run for 3 yds to the Fla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:24
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 18 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q3 11:27
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to Trey McBride for 48 yds for a TD (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-2.6
TD · Q2 11:49
Jordan Scarlett run for 30 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com