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ARST

Arkansas State 7 at Alabama 57

ALA
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:44 · Skyler DeLong punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALABAMA 37 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker ( Yards) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+36.3Home team on offense+24.4Score differential+21.9Blowout margin+9.9Garbage-time factor+7.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:30: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 31 yds for a TD (Austin Jones PAT MISSED) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:00: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 41 yds for a TD (Austin Jones PAT MISSED) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:52: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 10 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:43: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 7 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 11:42ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:54ARST 4th & 6 at ALA 42, down 13
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:53ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:44ARST 4th & 17 at ARST 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:28ARST 4th & 11 at midfield, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:32ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 7, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:25ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 15, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:20ARST 4th & 5 at ALA 35, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:44ARST 4th & 1 at ALA 19, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:44ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 24, up 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:46ALA 4th & 2 at ARST 22, up 33
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:31ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 36, down 36
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:40ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 31, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:35ARST 4th & 11 at ALA 11, down 50
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:38ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 29, up 50
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:00ARST 4th & 3 at ALA 28, down 50
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:41ARST 4th & 10 at ALA 23, down 50
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:02ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 21, up 50
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:19ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:30ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:00ALA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:52ALA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:43ALA Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:44ALA Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:28ARST Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:30ALA Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:06ALA Touchdown, up 49 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2699% → 98%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.5%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
98.4%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Damien HarrisSimilar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
98.4%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+58
98.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 58 yds for a TD (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:282% → 2%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
98.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.3%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
98.2%
Cody Grace punt for 7 yds, downed at the ArkSt 36 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:1098% → 98%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
98.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 31 yds for a TD (Austin Jones PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:262% → 2%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
98.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 9 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
98.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+8
98.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
98.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 15 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
98.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+4
98.3%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
98.1%
Cody Grace punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5798% → 98%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+22
98.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 22 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
98.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 9 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-1
98.2%
Josh Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 7:05
4TH & 2
OWN 41
-5
98.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
98.1%
Skyler DeLong punt for 32 yds, downed at the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:512% → 2%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-9
98.0%
Justice Hansen sacked by Dylan Moses for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 19
OWN 23
+2
98.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 2 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 17
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Armond Weh-WehSimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 17
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Cody Grace punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:4098% → 98%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.1%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Josh JacobsSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
98.1%
Tua Tagovailoa run for no gain to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+14
98.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 14 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
98.1%
Najee Harris run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
98.1%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-7
98.1%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Dajon Emory for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+41
98.2%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 41 yds for a TD (Austin Jones PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:172% → 2%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
98.2%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+20
98.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 20 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
98.1%
Justice Hansen sacked by Isaiah Buggs for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 11
50
0
98.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 11
50
0
98.1%
Cody Grace punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9FUMBLE
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:4598% → 98%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
98.2%
Harris, Damien rush for no gain to the ALABAMA16, PENALTY ARKST offside 5 yards to the ALABAMA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 5
OWN 21
+20
98.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 20 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
98.3%
Damien Harris run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
98.3%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+17
98.3%
Damien Harris run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
98.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 14 yds to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
98.3%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 1 Jalen Hurts fumbled, forced by Darreon Jackson, recovered by ArkSt Justin CliftonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:482% → 2%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
98.0%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+2
98.1%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+2
98.1%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 4
OWN 7
-4
98.1%
Cody Grace punt for 52 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 37 Jaylen Waddle fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:2398% → 99%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.3%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
98.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 6 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+10
98.3%
Josh Jacobs run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
98.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 4 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+30
98.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 30 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 10 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:181% → 1%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
98.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Marcel MurraySimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
98.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Javonis Isaac, broken up by Dylan MosesSimilar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
98.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Davis) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+37
98.9%
Cody Grace punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the ALABAMA 32 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-16 Yards) to the Alab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:2799% → 99%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
99.0%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+34
99.0%
Najee Harris run for 26 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ronheen Bingham) to the ArkSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 7 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14INT TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:410% → 1%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.4%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Adams Jr., Jonathan, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 15 yards to the ARKST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST.Similar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+38
99.5%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted for a TD Saivion Smith return for 38 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:001% → 1%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+40
99.5%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 40 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.6%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
99.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
99.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+7
99.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.7%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
99.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
99.7%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
99.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt, broken up by Xavier McKinneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.7%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-1
99.7%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+5
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 5 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+39
99.7%
Skyler DeLong punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALABAMA 37 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17END OF HALF
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
99.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 14 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.8%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
99.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 11 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.8%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+1
99.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 1 yd to the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:270% → 0%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.7%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
99.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 14 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.7%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+10
99.7%
Justice Hansen run for 10 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
99.7%
Darveon Brown pass complete to Justice Hansen for 25 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 23 yds for a TD (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.8%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+1
99.8%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+5
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 5 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+39
99.8%
Joseph Bulovas 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.8%
Armond Weh-Weh run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+6
99.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 6 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Cody Grace punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
17 plays · 89 yds · 6:45100% → 100%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.8%
Josh Jacobs run for no gain to the Alab 11Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+17
99.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 13 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 6 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+12
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 12 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
99.8%
Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete to Jeudy, Jerry, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Harris, Najee) 10 yards to the ALABAMA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+12
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+10
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 10 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
99.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+8
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 8 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+11
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 8
OPP 9
-5
99.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jonah Williams) to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Derek Kief for 14 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kirk MerrittSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 5
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
Cody Grace punt for 42 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:24100% → 100%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
99.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 15 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 8 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+19
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24MISSED FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Reed Tyler for 7 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
100.0%
Warren Wand run for 22 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
100.0%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+26
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Armond Weh-Weh for 26 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+15
100.0%
Warren Wand run for 15 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Reed TylerSimilar
Q4 8:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
99.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Nour-Eddine Seidnaly) to the Alab 6Similar
Q4 8:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
99.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Lanard Bonner) to the Alab 11Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+27
100.0%
Sawyer Williams 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Skyler DeLong punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Warren Wand at the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:490% → 0%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
100.0%
Logan Bonner run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 7 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+12
100.0%
Marcel Murray run for 12 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
100.0%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-2
100.0%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+5
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Marcel MurraySimilar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+9
100.0%
Logan Bonner run for 9 yds to the Alab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jaylen Waddle, broken up by Michael JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Skyler DeLong punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Warren Wand at the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
100.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+7
100.0%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+8
100.0%
Logan Bonner run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+1
100.0%
Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:52
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 10 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 3:00
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 41 yds for a TD (Austin Jones PAT MISSED)
+0.2
TD · Q2 7:43
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 7 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com