2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadCHSO aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreCHSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:58 · Evan McPherson 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:40: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 34 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — CHSO win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- FG · Q1 8:10: Evan McPherson 21 yd FG GOOD — CHSO win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:19: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:51: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 6 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:49: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 3 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK) — FLA win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CHSO made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 15:00FLA 4th & 1 at CHSO 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%71% to convertField goal98.9%−0.242% to makePunt98.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 12:40CHSO 4th & 13 at CHSO 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 8:10FLA 4th & 4 at CHSO 4, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%−<0.193% to makePunt98.1%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:03CHSO 4th & 8 at CHSO 38, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 5:55FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 49, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.4%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q1 2:37CHSO 4th & 14 at CHSO 11, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q2 13:14CHSO 4th & 1 at CHSO 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:51CHSO 4th & 12 at CHSO 23, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q2 5:49CHSO 4th & 7 at CHSO 28, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 0:00CHSO 4th & 6 at FLA 6, down 38Close callKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%31% to convertField goalTheir call0.5%−<0.191% to makePunt0.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 10:58FLA 4th & 10 at CHSO 14, up 38Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%84% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 10:53CHSO 4th & 4 at CHSO 18, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 4:48FLA 4th & 10 at CHSO 22, up 48Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%72% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 15:00CHSO 4th & 1 at FLA 42, down 51Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goal-0.1%−0.230% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:38FLA 4th & 17 at FLA 28, up 47Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 11:38CHSO 4th & 14 at CHSO 34, down 47Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:39FLA 4th & 2 at CHSO 49, up 47Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:29CHSO 4th & 21 at FLA 35, down 47Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.19% to convertField goal0.0%45% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CHSO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:40FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:19FLA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:51FLA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:49FLA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:38FLA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:28FLA Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:40CHSO Touchdown, down 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFLADrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2099% → 99%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+15
99.4%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, personal foul (Edward King) to the ChaSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.4%
Franks,F. crossing pass incomplete, PENALTY CSU offside (BROWN, S.) 5 yards to the CSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 34 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 2PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.3%
London Johnson sacked by Chauncey Gardner-Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the ChaSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3FG8 plays · 64 yds · 2:4999% → 99%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+46
99.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 46 yds to the ChaSo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
FLADrive 5PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+8
99.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Malik Davis for 8 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
99.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Trevon Grimes, broken up by James AllenSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
98.9%
Tommy Townsend punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Taz Lindsey at the ChaSo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 6PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 2:37
4TH & 14
OWN 11
+7
98.8%
Kyle Reighard punt for 39 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 7 yds to the ChaSo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD6 plays · 43 yds · 2:3199% → 99%
Q1 0:50
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+13
98.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 13 yds to the ChaSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+7
98.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 7 yds to the ChaSo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
98.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 7 yds to the ChaSo 6Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
99.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 8DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
CHSODrive 10PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 9:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.2%
London Johnson pass complete to Kameron Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the ChaSo 23Similar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+10
99.2%
Kyle Reighard punt for 47 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 10 yds to the Fla 33 FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD8 plays · 70 yds · 2:1799% → 100%
Q2 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 12 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 11 yds to the ChaSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lucas Krull for 3 yds to the ChaSo 33Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+30
99.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lucas Krull for 30 yds to the ChaSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 3 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 12PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13TD5 plays · 65 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
99.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 12 yds to the ChaSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
99.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Dre Massey for 18 yds to the ChaSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 3 yds for a TD CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Evan McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 14MISSED FG9 plays · 77 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
99.8%
London Johnson pass complete to Taz Lindsey for 5 yds to the ChaSo 22Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.8%
London Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie Harris, broken up by Jachai PoliteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.8%
London Johnson pass incomplete to Kameron Brown, broken up by CJ HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 15FUMBLE5 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
99.8%
London Johnson sacked by Chauncey Gardner-Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the ChaSo 27Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
99.8%
London Johnson run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 14 London Johnson fumbled, forced by Jachai Polite, recovered by Fla Tedarrell Slaton , return for 22 yds to the ChaSo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16FG4 plays · 0 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-16
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the ChaSo 30 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Fla Kyle TraskSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 26
OPP 30
+4
99.8%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 4 yds to the ChaSo 26Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 22
OPP 26
+12
99.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Trevon Grimes for 12 yds to the ChaSo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 17PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18TD5 plays · 57 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q3 9:23
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+6
99.9%
Kyle Trask pass complete to Rick Wells for 6 yds to the ChaSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 19FUMBLE3 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
FLADrive 20FG4 plays · 0 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 21TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:080% → 0%
FLADrive 22PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:38
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-6
99.9%
Emory Jones sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 33 Emory Jones fumbled, recovered by Fla Emory Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 23PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-10
100.0%
JOHNSON, L. rush over right end for 1 yard to the CSU22, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CSU holding (SMITH, B.) 10 yards to the CSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-9
100.0%
London Johnson sacked by Ventrell Miller for a loss of 9 yards to the ChaSo 34Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Kyle Reighard punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24DOWNS7 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 12 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Fla Emory Jones , return for no gain to the Fla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 25INT11 plays · 14 yds · 3:590% → 0%
Q4 4:28
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-7
100.0%
Geoffrey Wall run for 3 yds to the Fla 31 CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+5
100.0%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Geoffrey Wall for 5 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
100.0%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Chanin Hamilton for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 28Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 14
OPP 28
-7
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ChaSo Jack ChambersSimilar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 21
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Jack Chambers pass intercepted John Huggins return for no gain to the Fla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26END OF GAME1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:19
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 9:51
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 6 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q2 5:49
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 3 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
+0.3