2017 · Postseason · Dec 29, 2017 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreNCSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:52 · Manny Wilkins 1 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:13: Nyheim Hines 5 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick) — NCSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:42: Nyheim Hines 5 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick) — NCSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:08: Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +8.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:00: Jakobi Meyers 25 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Kyle Bambard Kick) — NCSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:53: Kyle Williams 19 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Brandon Ruiz Kick) — ASU win probability +7.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 11:38NCSU 4th & 4 at ASU 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.5%40% to convertField goal60.5%−<0.193% to makePunt60.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:26ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 37, tiedClose callPunted · 40.3% before the snapGo for it40.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:27NCSU 4th & 2 at ASU 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.9%57% to convertField goal58.4%−0.536% to makePunt58.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 1:06ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snapGo for it35.8%−1.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.1%average punt
- Q2 8:06ASU 4th & 6 at NCSU 6, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snapGo for it28.6%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call28.7%91% to makePunt25.6%−3.1average punt
- Q3 12:16NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 45, up 18Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.1%−1.8average punt
- Q3 8:20NCSU 4th & 6 at ASU 9, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snapGo for it86.6%−0.333% to convertField goalTheir call86.9%89% to makePunt80.5%−6.5average punt
- Q3 7:16ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 29, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 2:40NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.3%97% to makeGo for two61.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:13NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.7%97% to makeGo for two66.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:42NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.2%97% to makeGo for two77.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:08ASU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.7%97% to makeGo for two29.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:00NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.6%97% to makeGo for two79.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54NCSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:52ASU Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.1%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.1%45% to convert
- Q4 8:53ASU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.8%97% to makeGo for two6.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:06NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two98.9%45% to convert
- Q4 2:13ASU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call3.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two3.2%45% to convert
- Q4 1:54NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartASUDrive 1FUMBLE2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2DOWNS7 plays · 49 yds · 2:3262% → 61%
Q1 13:20
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+50
38.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 50 yds to the ArzSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 2:0040% → 40%
NCSUDrive 4TD17 plays · 87 yds · 6:3060% → 64%
Q1 8:53
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+25
40.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 25 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
40.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+6
40.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+5
40.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
39.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 1
OPP 26
-1
39.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+9
40.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2437% → 36%
Q1 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-8
37.1%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jerod Fernandez for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD6 plays · 56 yds · 1:4864% → 70%
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+28
35.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 28 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7FG16 plays · 62 yds · 5:4431% → 32%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-13
31.3%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Kentavius Street and Ben Frazier for a loss of 13 yards to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 23
OWN 25
+6
29.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+9
28.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to John Humphrey for 9 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+10
29.4%
NC STATE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (10 Yards) to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
30.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 19 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1368% → 83%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
30.5%
Ryan Finley sacked by DJ Calhoun for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+8
29.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+40
29.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 40 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD8 plays · 72 yds · 2:2222% → 32%
Q2 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+14
21.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 14 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+37
22.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 37 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
22.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 8 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
31.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD7 plays · 49 yds · 1:0073% → 87%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
26.6%
Ryan Finley sacked by Khaylan Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 18
OPP 44
+7
28.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+12
26.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 12 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11DOWNS9 plays · 47 yds · 0:4719% → 27%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
19.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 10 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
19.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Kentavius Street for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+15
17.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 15 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3484% → 86%
Q3 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
15.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 2 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
15.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 5 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
15.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for no gain to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
14.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13INT6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5416% → 16%
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
15.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 2 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+34
15.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 34 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
16.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 2 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+53
16.4%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted Nick McCloud return for 53 yds to the ArzSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14FG4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4088% → 92%
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
11.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15FUMBLE5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4910% → 9%
Q3 7:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-6
9.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 38 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 27 Nyheim Hines fumbled, recovered by ArzStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
11.4%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted, touchback. Jarius Morehead return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17TD13 plays · 80 yds · 7:0694% → 99%
Q3 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-10
4.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 9 yds to the NCSt 30 NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (-19 Yards) to the NCSt 11Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+3
4.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 3 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+21
4.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 21 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+4
3.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+28
3.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 28 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD13 plays · 76 yds · 4:382% → 5%
ASUDrive 19TD5 plays · 45 yds · 0:373% → 10%
NCSUDrive 20TD11 plays · 38 yds · 4:2494% → 99%
Q4 6:50
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-10
5.1%
Gallaspy II, Reggie rush for no gain to the ARIZONAST33, PENALTY NCSTATE holding 10 yards to the ARIZONAST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+26
4.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 26 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
3.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD7 plays · 80 yds · 1:251% → 4%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
1.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+13
1.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 13 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
1.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 17 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0398% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:00
Jakobi Meyers 25 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Kyle Bambard Kick)
-13.1
TD · Q2 4:42
Nyheim Hines 5 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)
-11.8
TD · Q2 2:08
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+8.7