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NCSU

NC State 52 at Arizona State 31

ASU
2017 · Postseason · Dec 29, 2017 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:27 · Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.7Pregame prior−9.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:13: Nyheim Hines 5 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick) — NCSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:42: Nyheim Hines 5 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick) — NCSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:08: Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) — ASU win probability +8.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:00: Jakobi Meyers 25 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Kyle Bambard Kick) — NCSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:53: Kyle Williams 19 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Brandon Ruiz Kick) — ASU win probability +7.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:38NCSU 4th & 4 at ASU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:27NCSU 4th & 2 at ASU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:06ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:06ASU 4th & 6 at NCSU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:16NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 45, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:20NCSU 4th & 6 at ASU 9, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−6.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:16ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 2:40NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:13NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:42NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:08ASU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:00NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:54NCSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:52ASU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:53ASU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:06NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:13ASU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:54NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:3262% → 61%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
50
0
38.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
50
-2
38.6%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+50
38.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 50 yds to the ArzSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
38.8%
Ryan Finley run for no gain to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
38.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 11:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
39.3%
Kyle Bambard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:0040% → 40%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+18
39.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 18 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
39.7%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
39.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+9
39.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
40.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
40.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ryan NewsomeSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
40.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
40.2%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 50 yds, downed at the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
17 plays · 87 yds · 6:3060% → 64%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
40.4%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+25
40.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 25 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
40.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
40.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+6
40.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
40.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
40.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+5
40.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+4
40.8%
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
39.9%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
40.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 1
OPP 26
-1
39.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+9
40.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
40.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Cole CookSimilar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+13
40.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
35.8%
Nyheim Hines 5 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2437% → 36%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-8
37.1%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jerod Fernandez for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
36.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
36.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 37 yds, downed at the NCSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:4864% → 70%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
35.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+28
35.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 28 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
35.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+13
34.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
34.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
29.8%
Nyheim Hines 5 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 5:4431% → 32%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
31.0%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
31.2%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
31.3%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-13
31.3%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Kentavius Street and Ben Frazier for a loss of 13 yards to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 23
OWN 25
+6
29.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+9
28.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to John Humphrey for 9 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+10
29.4%
NC STATE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (10 Yards) to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
30.3%
Demario Richard run for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
30.6%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
30.4%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
30.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 19 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
29.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
29.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
28.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ryan NewsomeSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
31.8%
Brandon Ruiz 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1368% → 83%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
31.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 12 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
30.5%
Ryan Finley sacked by DJ Calhoun for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+10
31.1%
Ryan Finley run for 10 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+8
29.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
50
+5
29.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+40
29.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 40 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
17.3%
Nyheim Hines 5 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:2222% → 32%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
22.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
21.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tommy HudsonSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+14
21.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 14 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
22.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+37
22.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 37 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
22.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 8 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
31.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:0073% → 87%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
27.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
26.6%
Ryan Finley sacked by Khaylan Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 18
OPP 44
+7
28.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+12
26.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 12 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
13.5%
Jakobi Meyers 25 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:4719% → 27%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
19.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 10 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
19.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Kentavius Street for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+15
17.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 15 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
19.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to John HumphreySimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+43
27.2%
Brandon Ruiz 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3484% → 86%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
15.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
15.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 2 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
15.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 5 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
15.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for no gain to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
14.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
14.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 35 yds, downed at the ArzSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5416% → 16%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
15.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
15.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 2 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+34
15.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 34 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
17.1%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
16.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 2 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+53
16.4%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted Nick McCloud return for 53 yds to the ArzSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4088% → 92%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
11.6%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
11.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
11.5%
Ryan Finley run for no gain to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
7.9%
Kyle Bambard 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4910% → 9%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.6%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
9.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
9.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ryan NewsomeSimilar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-6
9.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 38 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 27 Nyheim Hines fumbled, recovered by ArzStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
11.4%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted, touchback. Jarius Morehead return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 7:0694% → 99%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
6.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-10
4.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 9 yds to the NCSt 30 NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (-19 Yards) to the NCSt 11Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+3
4.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 3 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+21
4.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 21 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
4.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
3.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
3.5%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
3.4%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+4
3.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+28
3.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 28 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
2.8%
Jakobi Meyers run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
2.6%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
0.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II 23 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 4:382% → 5%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
1.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
1.5%
Eno Benjamin run for 21 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
1.3%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+5
1.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+6
0.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
0.7%
Eno Benjamin run for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+12
0.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 12 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
0.7%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+9
0.6%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.5%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.5%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.5%
Manny Wilkins 1 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:373% → 10%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
2.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
2.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Eno BenjaminSimilar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+23
2.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Newsome for 23 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
9.9%
Kyle Williams 19 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Brandon Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:2494% → 99%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
5.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
5.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
5.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-10
5.1%
Gallaspy II, Reggie rush for no gain to the ARIZONAST33, PENALTY NCSTATE holding 10 yards to the ARIZONAST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
4.7%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+26
4.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 26 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
3.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
3.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.6%
Jaylen Samuels 2 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:251% → 4%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
1.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+13
1.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 13 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
1.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 17 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
1.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+21
1.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 21 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
4.3%
Frank Darby 20 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Brandon Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0398% → 100%
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II 1 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
0.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:00
Jakobi Meyers 25 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Kyle Bambard Kick)
-13.1
TD · Q2 4:42
Nyheim Hines 5 Yd Run (Kyle Bambard Kick)
-11.8
TD · Q2 2:08
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com