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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 35 at Arkansas State 30

ARST
2017 · Raycom Media Camellia Bowl · Dec 16, 2017 · Cramton Bowl
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:22 · Matt Bonadies punt for 53 yds, downed at the ArkSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense−17.1Pregame prior+2.8Score differential−8.6Garbage-time factor−6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:16: Tavares Thomas 2 Yd Run (Canon Rooker Kick) — MTSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:19: Justin McInnis 20 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +14.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:24: Warren Wand 2 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ARST win probability +17.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 12:08: Shane Tucker 30 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Canon Rooker Kick) — MTSU win probability +17.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:03: Christian Booker 41 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +20.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:52ARST 4th & 3 at MTSU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:27ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:49ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:18MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:20ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:34MTSU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:07ARST 4th & 6 at MTSU 41, down 4
    Close callPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−1.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:52MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:18ARST 4th & 1 at MTSU 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−2.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:54ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:22MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 5, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−4.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:54ARST 4th & 14 at MTSU 34, down 11
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:14ARST 4th & 5 at MTSU 5, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−7.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:51MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 7, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:27MTSU 4th & 8 at ARST 42, up 5
    Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:25MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:41MTSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:59ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:45MTSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:16MTSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:19ARST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:24ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    38.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:08MTSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:03ARST Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0640% → 40%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
59.8%
Terelle West run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
59.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ja'Von Rolland-Jones) to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+19
59.7%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted B.J. Edmonds return for 19 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:4860% → 60%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
60.0%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+6
60.0%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+25
60.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 25 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
60.2%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
60.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 0
OPP 6
+3
60.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Darius Harris) to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
60.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 11:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
60.3%
Sawyer Williams 20 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:2040% → 42%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
60.1%
Tavares Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+5
60.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 5 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-5
60.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Carlos Johnson) to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+10
60.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+15
60.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Justin McInnis) to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
58.4%
Terelle West 45 Yd Run (Canon Rooker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4859% → 58%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
59.0%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
58.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
58.0%
Cody Grace punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5INT
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:0642% → 44%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
58.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to CJ Windham for 15 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
57.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
57.6%
Terelle West run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
57.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavonn SalterSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+8
57.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for 8 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
57.1%
Tavares Thomas run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+4
56.9%
Tavares Thomas run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
56.4%
Tavares Thomas run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
56.1%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted Justin Clifton return for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:5657% → 56%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
57.2%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
57.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mike Minter) to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
57.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 2 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-10
57.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Still) to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 18
OWN 10
0
56.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 18
OWN 10
0
56.3%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 18
OWN 10
0
55.9%
Cody Grace punt for 61 yds, downed at the MTnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2443% → 42%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
56.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
57.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Terelle WestSimilar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
57.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+11
57.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 46 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 11 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4057% → 56%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
57.3%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
57.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
56.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Christian BookerSimilar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
56.1%
Cody Grace punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:4043% → 44%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+28
56.6%
Tavares Thomas run for 28 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
55.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
54.4%
Terelle West run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-2
54.5%
Tavares Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 8
50
0
55.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:1856% → 56%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
55.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 11 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
56.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
56.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+12
55.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 12 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
57.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
56.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
57.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 8 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
57.7%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
57.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
57.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
55.9%
Cody Grace punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0645% → 45%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
54.9%
Tavares Thomas run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-6
54.7%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Darreon Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+1
54.5%
Tavares Thomas run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+22
55.1%
Matt Bonadies punt for 46 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 22 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -9 yds · 1:0456% → 46%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
56.4%
Warren Wand run for 2 yd to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+13
56.3%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-54
45.8%
D.J. Sanders 54 Yd Fumble Return (Canon Rooker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 3:2342% → 57%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
42.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 14 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
42.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 16 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
42.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+20
43.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 20 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
45.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 7 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+4
45.5%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
45.4%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
45.3%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
44.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+4
42.9%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
44.8%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.5%
Johnston White run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.6%
Justice Hansen 1 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:0052% → 62%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
50
-1
48.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ruben Garnett for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+15
49.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ronheen Bingham) to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
47.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+31
36.4%
Ruben Garnett 31 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Canon Rooker Kick)Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-15
38.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Shane Tucker) to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15INT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:2540% → 40%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
39.5%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+11
40.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 11 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
40.3%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
39.7%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Jovante Moffatt return for 9 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:3637% → 35%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
36.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 13 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
37.3%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
37.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justice HansenSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
35.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
35.0%
Cody Grace punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:2164% → 85%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
36.4%
Terelle West run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+18
35.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ruben Garnett for 18 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
34.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ruben GarnettSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
34.0%
Brent Stockstill run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
33.2%
Tavares Thomas run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
32.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Darrius LigginsSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+17
33.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 17 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
32.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
31.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+22
31.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for 22 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
28.9%
Tavares Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.5%
Tavares Thomas 2 Yd Run (Canon Rooker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 2:4621% → 30%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
20.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
20.2%
Justice Hansen run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
21.1%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
20.7%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+8
20.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 8 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
20.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
19.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 1 yd to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+11
19.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 11 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
20.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
34.3%
Justin McInnis 20 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
30.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Peter Bailey) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1771% → 70%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
29.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ruben GarnettSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
29.7%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted B.J. Edmonds return for no gain to the MTnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:2132% → 29%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
32.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 9 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+4
33.7%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
33.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
33.5%
Warren Wand run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-4
33.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Jacob Still) to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 15
OPP 17
0
31.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 15
OPP 17
0
31.1%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 15
OPP 17
+11
28.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 11 yds Omar Bayless fumbled, forced by Jovante Moffatt, recovered by MTnSt O.J. JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3372% → 72%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
27.7%
Tavares Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 11
OWN 5
0
27.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ruben GarnettSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 11
OWN 5
0
28.0%
Tavares Thomas run for no gain to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 11
OWN 5
0
28.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 53 yds, downed at the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:3627% → 48%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
26.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+15
25.4%
Justice Hansen run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
28.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 15 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
29.0%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
29.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-6
26.4%
Justice Hansen sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+21
21.8%
Cody Grace pass complete to Chris Murray for 21 yds to the MTnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
28.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q4 14:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
28.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Colby Sigears) to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.3%
Warren Wand 2 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 0
OPP 2
+1
48.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Offside (TEAM) to the MTnSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1164% → 87%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+34
35.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to CJ Windham for 34 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
31.0%
Terelle West run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
30.2%
Terelle West run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
30.2%
Brent Stockstill run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
13.2%
Shane Tucker 30 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Canon Rooker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:3119% → 17%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
19.1%
Justice Hansen sacked by D.J. Sanders and Tyshun Render for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+7
17.8%
Justice Hansen run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+9
17.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 9 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+32
16.8%
Justice Hansen run for 32 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
19.7%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
19.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
17.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+15
16.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Charvarius Ward) to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 0
OPP 9
+4
21.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Charvarius Ward) to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
19.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
19.2%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
17.5%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
16.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:0990% → 92%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
10.2%
Terelle West run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+8
9.2%
Terelle West run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 1
OWN 14
-2
9.1%
Terelle West run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 3
OWN 12
-5
8.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Daniel Sargent) to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 8
OWN 7
0
7.8%
Matt Bonadies punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 0:3210% → 32%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
10.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 9 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
10.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+1
10.9%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
31.7%
Christian Booker 41 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 3:1781% → 92%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
17.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for 3 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
16.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ruben Garnett for 9 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
12.6%
Tavares Thomas run for no gain to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
12.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to CJ Windham for 14 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
10.1%
Tavares Thomas run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
9.7%
Tavares Thomas run for no gain to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
6.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Shane TuckerSimilar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
8.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:1513% → 9%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-6
13.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Khalil Brooks for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 16
OWN 3
+11
10.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 11 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+28
10.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 28 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
11.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-4
10.0%
Justice Hansen sacked by D.J. Sanders and Jahmal Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 38
-5
9.2%
Justice Hansen sacked by Darrius Liggins for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 33 Justice Hansen fumbled, forced by Darrius Liggins, recovered by ArkSt Lanard Bonner , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:03
Christian Booker 41 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)
+20.8
TD · Q4 14:24
Warren Wand 2 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+17.8
TD · Q4 12:08
Shane Tucker 30 Yd pass from Brent Stockstill (Canon Rooker Kick)
-17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com