2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:36 · Ryan Tuiasoa run for 3 yds to the Hawa 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:32: Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 10 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +3.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:01: Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 49 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +6.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- INT · Q2 1:57: Jordan Love pass intercepted Trayvon Henderson return for no gain to the UthSt 38 — USU win probability +5.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:05: Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the UthSt 4 — USU win probability +3.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:25: LaJuan Hunt run for 48 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +5.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6HAW made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 12:12USU 4th & 2 at HAW 28, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.1%57% to convertField goalTheir call76.1%−0.160% to makePunt75.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 12:12HAW 4th & 22 at HAW 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it23.7%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.9%average punt
- Q1 9:26HAW 4th & 17 at HAW 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.7%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%average punt
- Q2 14:55HAW 4th & 10 at USU 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snapGo for it18.7%−0.628% to convertField goalTheir call19.3%68% to makePunt15.8%−3.4average punt
- Q2 13:54HAW 4th & 4 at HAW 38, down 21Close callPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:46USU 4th & 5 at USU 34, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snapGo for it88.7%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.0%average punt
- Q2 9:54HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 49, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.6%−1.2average punt
- Q2 9:54HAW 4th & 9 at USU 15, down 21Close callWent for it · 10.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.0%−0.529% to convertField goal10.5%83% to makePunt7.1%−3.4average punt
- Q3 14:54HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 17, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it5.9%−0.632% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q3 13:25HAW 4th & 5 at USU 28, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.9%41% to convertField goal1.8%−<0.160% to makePunt0.4%−1.5average punt
- Q3 10:34USU 4th & 9 at HAW 44, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.132% to convertField goal98.8%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q3 6:47HAW 4th & 5 at USU 40, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%42% to convertField goal0.5%−0.234% to makePunt0.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:29HAW 4th & 3 at HAW 32, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 13:10USU 4th & 3 at HAW 3, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%44% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%−0.193% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 13:05HAW 4th & 5 at HAW 32, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 11:11USU 4th & 3 at USU 36, up 38Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:44HAW 4th & 7 at USU 31, down 38Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goal0.1%54% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:46USU 4th & 11 at HAW 46, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.127% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 9:33USU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:32USU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.4%97% to makeGo for two79.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:01USU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:25USU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:29USU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSUDrive 1MISSED FG11 plays · 37 yds · 2:4877% → 76%
HAWDrive 2PUNT7 plays · -12 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
76.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 5 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-12
76.3%
Dru Brown sacked by Jalen Davis for a loss of 12 yards to the Hawa 17Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 22
OWN 17
+5
76.4%
GAUDION, Stan punt 27 yards to the UH44, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USU roughing the kicker 5 yards to the UH22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 22
OWN 17
0
76.4%
Stan Gaudion punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3TD3 plays · 66 yds · 0:3876% → 77%
HAWDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
USUDrive 5TD8 plays · 67 yds · 2:1777% → 81%
HAWDrive 6MISSED FG16 plays · 52 yds · 5:2920% → 19%
Q1 5:24
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+13
79.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 13 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
78.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Kalakaua Timoteo for 5 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-4
80.2%
Dru Brown sacked by David Woodward for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5482% → 89%
HAWDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
87.5%
SAINT JUSTE, D. rush for 12 yards to the UH44 (LATU, Ofa), PENALTY UH holding 10 yards to the UH22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+5
87.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 5 yds to the Hawa 27Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+8
87.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 8 yds to the Hawa 38Similar
Q2 13:54
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+6
87.7%
Stan Gaudion punt for 39 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 6 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
HAWDrive 10DOWNS21 plays · 55 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 9:54
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
89.4%
Cole McDonald run for 2 yds to the UthSt 49 Cole McDonald fumbled, forced by Adewale Adeoye, recovered by Hawa Cole McDonald for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.2%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Chase ChristiansenSimilar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+10
89.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 10 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+9
89.2%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Dylan Collie for 9 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+5
89.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
88.5%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
94.7%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Trayvon Henderson return for no gain to the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12FUMBLE8 plays · 37 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
92.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 4 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+6
92.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 6 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
92.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 18 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
91.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 21 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.2%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Kalakaua Timoteo, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for no gain to the UthSt 1 Diocemy Saint Juste fumbled, forced by Gaje Ferguson, recovered by UthSt Justus Te'iSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 14:54
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+14
93.6%
Stan Gaudion punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Hawa 48 , Zach Van Leeuwen returns for 14 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15TD1 play · 48 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16DOWNS10 plays · 47 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 11 yds to the Hawa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+9
98.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 9 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+12
98.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dakota Torres for 12 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
98.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 15 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
98.5%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Dylan Collie, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
HAWDrive 18DOWNS6 plays · 33 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
99.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Diocemy Saint Juste for 19 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
99.4%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 16 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 5
OPP 40
-7
99.4%
Dru Brown sacked by Logan Lee and Maika Magalei for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19TD3 plays · 53 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
HAWDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21FG10 plays · 63 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q3 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+15
99.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 15 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:05
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Stan Gaudion punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Zach Van Leeuwen at the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
HAWDrive 24DOWNS11 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:44
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+1
99.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Diocemy Saint Juste for 1 yd to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+8
99.9%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Kalakaua Timoteo for 8 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 7
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Cole McDonald pass incomplete to Kalakaua Timoteo, broken up by Wesley BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 26END OF GAME1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:01
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 49 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
+6.6
INT · Q2 1:57
Jordan Love pass intercepted Trayvon Henderson return for no gain to the UthSt 38
+5.4
TD · Q3 13:25
LaJuan Hunt run for 48 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
+5.2