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TROY

Troy 32 at Arkansas State 25

ARST
2017 · Week 14 · Dec 2, 2017 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-5.3ARST 49.9%Tyler Sumpter 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 10 · Q3 9:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:59 · Tyler Sumpter 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense−3.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:36: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tray Eafford for 44 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +22.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:46: Justice Hansen pass intercepted for a TD Marcus Jones return for 100 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +30.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:56: Omar Bayless 11 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ARST win probability +17.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 1:28: Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 39 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARST win probability +53.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Deondre Douglas 14 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (John Johnson Pass to Brandon Silvers for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +50.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 10 at ARST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:45ARST 4th & 1 at TROY 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:56TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:37ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:27TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:36ARST 4th & 8 at TROY 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:14ARST 4th & 11 at TROY 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:31TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:53TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:18ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:02TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:58ARST 4th & 8 at TROY 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−5.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:59TROY 4th & 3 at ARST 20, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%−0.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−9.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:07ARST 4th & 11 at TROY 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−11.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:11ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−2.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:34TROY 4th & 2 at ARST 21, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%−1.9
    74% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−15.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:29ARST 4th & 6 at TROY 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−2.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−14.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:15TROY 4th & 12 at ARST 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:47TROY 4th & 8 at ARST 48, up 5
    Close callPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:23TROY 4th & 5 at ARST 38, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.3 ptsWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%−6.3
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%
    38% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−12.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 13:20TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:53ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:36TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:46TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:56ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:28ARST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    72.7%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:17TROY Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    83.9%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
50.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
50.0%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
50.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 12 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
50.0%
Josh Anderson run for 5 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
50.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+13
50.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 13 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
50.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John Johnson, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
50.0%
John Johnson run for no gain to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
50.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Josh AndersonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
50.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 29 yds, downed at the ArkSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
50.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 69 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
50.7%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+48
50.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 48 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
51.3%
Justice Hansen run for 7 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+3
51.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 3 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
51.4%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
51.4%
TROY Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
51.4%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
51.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
51.0%
Justice Hansen run for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
51.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 14 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
50.8%
Josh Anderson run for 1 yd to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+8
50.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Richard Hallman for 8 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-1
50.5%
Deondre Douglas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
50.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 32 yds, downed at the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
51.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 7 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
52.0%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
51.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
50.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 56 yds, downed at the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1249% → 47%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
51.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+4
51.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 2
OWN 19
0
52.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete, broken up by Dee LinerSimilar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
52.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 39 yds, downed at the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6INT
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
53.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+30
53.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 30 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
54.1%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
54.1%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 0
0
51.7%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Paschal, Dijon, PENALTY TROY pass interference off-setting, PENALTY A-ST HL off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+13
53.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 7 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the Troy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
54.1%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted, touchback. Blace Brown return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3548% → 47%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
51.7%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 13 TROY Penalty, HL ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+3
51.9%
Josh Anderson run for 3 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+5
52.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 5 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+47
53.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ARKST 47 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1955% → 55%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
54.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 15 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
55.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 12 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+2
53.2%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the Troy 9 TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
55.5%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
54.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
55.3%
Sawyer Williams 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
50.1%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
49.8%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+31
49.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 31 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
51.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Jawon McDowellSimilar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
51.9%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-2
51.5%
Justice Hansen sacked by Baron Poole for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
49.8%
Damon Foncham punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
50.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
49.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 1
OWN 18
-2
49.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Troy Brandon SilversSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 1
OWN 18
-5
50.6%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
50.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 42 yds, downed at the ArkSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:3551% → 61%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
51.4%
Warren Wand run for 11 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
52.1%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-4
51.7%
Justice Hansen sacked by Jamal Stadom for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+5
49.4%
TROY Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+20
50.4%
Justice Hansen run for 20 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
53.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 19 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.1%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
55.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
55.8%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
55.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
57.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 37 yds, downed at the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0557% → 56%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
57.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 1 yd to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
56.9%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+15
56.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 15 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
59.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-8
58.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Hunter Reese and Jamal Stadom for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 18
OWN 37
0
56.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
55.9%
Damon Foncham punt for 46 yds, downed at the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
56.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
57.2%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
58.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
59.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 28 yds, downed at the Troy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
61.4%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
61.2%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5361% → 60%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
61.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 6 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+10
61.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 10 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
61.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the Troy 31Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
61.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Christian Booker, broken up by Marcus JonesSimilar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+2
60.3%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
59.9%
Sawyer Williams 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:5942% → 50%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
57.9%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+14
58.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 14 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
55.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 3
50
-2
54.5%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+10
55.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 10 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
54.8%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Flakes, Andre, PENALTY A-ST pass interference 15 yards to the A-ST27, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
53.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
53.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+7
55.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 7 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
49.9%
Tyler Sumpter 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 4:4155% → 63%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.7%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
55.3%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+12
54.3%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
57.2%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
57.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 1
50
+2
57.9%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
58.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+27
56.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 27 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
59.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 7 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+9
59.9%
Justice Hansen run for 9 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
59.9%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the Troy 9Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
59.9%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
58.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 11Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
62.7%
Sawyer Williams 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:2640% → 64%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
59.6%
Tevaris McCormick run for 3 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
59.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+14
60.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tray Eafford for 14 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
56.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
56.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre Douglas, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+5
56.5%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete, PENALTY A-ST offside defense 5 yards to the A-ST44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+44
35.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tray Eafford for 44 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:2142% → 41%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
42.1%
Justice Hansen sacked by Hunter Reese and Baron Poole for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+4
41.6%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 13
OWN 20
0
40.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+5
39.4%
TROY Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
40.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 34 yds, downed at the Troy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:2965% → 66%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
35.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Richard Hallman for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 1
50
-2
34.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+5
35.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 5 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
34.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+10
32.6%
Silvers, B. pass incomplete to Flakes, Andre (Martin, Kyle), PENALTY A-ST HL 10 yards to the A-ST29, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
32.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
32.0%
Brandon Silvers run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
33.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
34.4%
Tyler Sumpter 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23MISSED FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:0542% → 43%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
42.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon Paschal, broken up by Jalen HarrisSimilar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-1
41.9%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+12
40.4%
Justice Hansen run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
42.9%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+8
45.8%
Justice Hansen run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+31
45.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 31 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
50.3%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
50.3%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+1
47.5%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
43.4%
Sawyer Williams 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
33.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+2
34.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Josh Anderson for 2 yds Josh Anderson fumbled, forced by Justin Clifton, recovered by ArkSt Michael JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25INT TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:0050% → 20%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
49.5%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+12
49.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 12 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+100
19.5%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted for a TD Marcus Jones return for 100 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.4%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Tyler Murray return for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2192% → 96%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
7.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-4
7.8%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
4.1%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
4.4%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 42 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 3:0710% → 34%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
10.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 4 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+33
10.3%
Johnston White run for 33 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
12.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
11.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 12 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
13.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 15 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
16.8%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+9
16.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 9 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
16.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
16.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 5 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
34.2%
Omar Bayless 11 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0891% → 89%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
50
-1
8.6%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+3
10.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
9.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 8
OPP 48
+12
10.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 27 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 12 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:0624% → 81%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
24.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 8 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+8
27.5%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
27.1%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
28.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+8
27.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chauncey Mason for 8 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
81.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 39 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 31TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 1:0633% → 95%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
67.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 7 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+10
63.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 10 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
63.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tray Eafford for 12 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
58.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
56.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
58.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Tevaris McCormickSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+19
61.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 19 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
54.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 5
OPP 14
0
54.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
4.2%
Deondre Douglas 14 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (John Johnson Pass to Brandon Silvers for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
5.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · 37 yds · 0:009% → 12%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
8.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 21 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
10.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 16 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
12.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 39 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+53.7
TD · Q4 0:17
Deondre Douglas 14 Yd pass from Brandon Silvers (John Johnson Pass to Brandon Silvers for Two-Point Conversion)
-50.2
TD · Q4 7:46
Justice Hansen pass intercepted for a TD Marcus Jones return for 100 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-30
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com