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ARST

Arkansas State 67 at UL Monroe 50

ULM
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:56 · Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 9 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:54: Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 27 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +15.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:30: Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 17 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK) — ARST win probability +13.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:25: Caleb Evans run for 6 yds for a TD, (Harrison Heim pass to Ty Shelby for Two-Point Conversion) — ULM win probability +23.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 12:45: Johnston White run for 34 yds for a TD, (Justice Hansen pass to Blake Mack for Two-Point Conversion) — ARST win probability +17.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:53: Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 35 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +14.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 9:12ARST 4th & 9 at ULM 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:44ARST 4th & 8 at ULM 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:13ULM 4th & 2 at ARST 43, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−2.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:16ARST 4th & 8 at ULM 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:30ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:34ARST 4th & 17 at ULM 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  7. Q4 4:45ULM 4th & 13 at ULM 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:42ARST 4th & 7 at ULM 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:58ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:32ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:28ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:57ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:29ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:15ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:13ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:30ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:47ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 9:34ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 4:54ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 1:30ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 13:25ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 12:45ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    85.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.8%
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 9:53ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 0:56ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:0229% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
28.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 14 yds to the LaMon 34 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 6
OWN 24
0
28.7%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
28.7%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+44
28.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 44 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
29.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 32 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:2671% → 70%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
29.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 13 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
29.4%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+35
29.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 35 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
29.4%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+13
29.4%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
29.4%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
29.4%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 4 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
30.4%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+4
30.5%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
30.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 4 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
30.6%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
30.5%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Kyle Martin return for no gain to the LaMon 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
30.8%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+9
30.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 9 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
30.8%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
30.7%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
30.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Christian BookerSimilar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
31.3%
Cody Grace punt for 34 yds, downed at the LaMon 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5TD
17 plays · 99 yds · 7:0232% → 42%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
32.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the LaMon 6Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+1
32.0%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 7Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+6
31.9%
Kayin White run for 6 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
32.0%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
32.0%
Kayin White run for 1 yd to the LaMon 14Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+16
31.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 16 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
32.1%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
32.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+17
31.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 17 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
32.7%
Marcus Green run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
33.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+6
33.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
33.0%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+14
33.0%
Caleb Evans run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
33.0%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.0%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.5%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 1:3160% → 67%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+71
40.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 71 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
37.9%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+10
38.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
38.2%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 5Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
33.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 5 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:2836% → 45%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
36.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 24 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
37.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Roland JenkinsSimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
37.5%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+15
36.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kyle Wilson) to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
38.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 9 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+29
45.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 29 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1457% → 63%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
42.7%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+2
43.0%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+11
43.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 11 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
42.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-15
42.5%
Hansen, Justice pass complete to Bayless, Omar for 25 yards to the ULM42, out-of-bounds (Marbles, Kenderick), PENALTY A-ST pass interference (Bayless, Omar) 15 yards to the A-ST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 24
OWN 18
+82
37.2%
Warren Wand run for 82 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9INT
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:0039% → 40%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
38.5%
Derrick Gore run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jefferie Gibson) to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
40.3%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Kyle Martin return for no gain to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
36.8%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
36.7%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+33
37.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 33 yds to the ULMONROE 39 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
34.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-3
35.0%
Kyle Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 42Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+5
36.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 5 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
36.6%
Cody Grace punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0039% → 40%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
39.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+16
39.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 16 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
39.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Derrick Gore for 10 yds to the LaMon 40 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (Xavier Brown) to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
39.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
39.5%
Kayin White run for 6 yds to the LaMon 36 Kayin White fumbled, forced by Ronheen Bingham, recovered by ArkSt Ronheen BinghamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:0065% → 73%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
35.0%
Christian Booker run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+15
35.7%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Offray, Juwan) 15 yards to the ULM24, 1ST DOWN A-ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
34.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 20 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
26.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 4 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
30.0%
Derrick Gore run for 9 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
31.7%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
31.7%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
31.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 9
50
+7
30.4%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
30.9%
Harrison Heim punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 2:2772% → 73%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.9%
Chauncey Mason run for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
28.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 16 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
26.8%
Justice Hansen sacked by Derion Ford for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+24
28.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 24 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
25.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
25.8%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+5
26.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside (Caleb Tucker) to the LaMon 39Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-6
25.6%
Justice Hansen sacked by Jaylen Veasley and Caleb Tucker for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
27.2%
Cody Grace punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
28.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3073% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
27.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 23 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
25.8%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
25.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon Paschal, broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+17
26.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 17 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
25.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 27 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
16.8%
Justice Hansen run for 8 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
19.6%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
19.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-2
19.4%
Caleb Evans sacked by Ronheen Bingham and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
19.0%
Harrison Heim punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:0983% → 94%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
17.5%
Kyle Wilson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-3
17.6%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+22
18.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 22 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
16.3%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
16.2%
Johnston White run for no gain to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+38
6.5%
Justice Hansen run for 38 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+49
15.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 49 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
13.9%
Omar Bayless run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
14.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
14.4%
Justice Hansen run for no gain to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 12
OPP 36
-5
15.5%
Grace, Cody punt 32 yards to the ULM4, out-of-bounds, PENALTY A-ST illegal formation (Jackson, Darreon) 5 yards to the ULM41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
15.7%
Cody Grace punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 2:2316% → 30%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
15.7%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 6Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+55
15.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 55 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
18.0%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+6
18.8%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
18.8%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
34.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 27 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
29.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (RJ Turner) to the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:2475% → 90%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
25.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
25.9%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Mack, Blake, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Jenkins, Roland) 15 yards to the A-ST44, 1ST DOWN A-ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
23.8%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
23.1%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
23.3%
Johnston White run for no gain to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+13
23.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 13 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
22.9%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
22.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 3 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+8
23.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
10.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 17 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:0515% → 39%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
15.1%
Kayin White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+22
14.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 22 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
15.9%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+6
15.5%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+4
15.1%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
15.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Sloan Spiller for 5 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
38.9%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds for a TD, (Harrison Heim pass to Ty Shelby for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:4074% → 92%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+39
25.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 39 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
7.7%
Johnston White run for 34 yds for a TD, (Justice Hansen pass to Blake Mack for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:5212% → 27%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
12.4%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+29
12.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 29 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
14.3%
Caleb Evans sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Kirk Louis for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
14.1%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-5
14.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Sloan Spiller) to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+5
13.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Dee Liner) to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+35
27.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 35 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26INT
12 plays · 38 yds · 0:0080% → 82%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+20
19.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 20 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
18.7%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
18.3%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
17.3%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
17.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Lee MarshallSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+22
17.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 22 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 0
-15
15.5%
Wand, Warren rush for 16 yards to the ULM22 (Thompson, Wesley), PENALTY A-ST holding (Philbert, Jaypee) 10 yards to the ULM48, NO PLAY, PENALTY A-ST unsportsmanlike conduct (Hill, Jonah) 15 yards to the A-ST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 35
OWN 37
+10
18.8%
Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 25
OWN 47
0
17.5%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 25
OWN 47
+2
18.2%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Lee Marshall return for 2 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:4021% → 17%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
21.1%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
20.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-5
18.8%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Bobby Reynolds) to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+2
18.2%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
17.3%
Harrison Heim punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:2886% → 96%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+30
13.7%
Warren Wand run for 30 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
11.6%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+4
11.5%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
11.3%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
6.4%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-2
4.5%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
4.2%
Sawyer Williams 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 29INT TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:464% → 1%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
3.5%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Carter, Duke, PENALTY A-ST roughing passer (Bingham, Ronheen) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
50
+26
4.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 26 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
5.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
5.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+85
1.0%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted for a TD Blaise Taylor return for 85 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 30Uncategorized
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
0.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 22 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
0.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 9 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+9
0.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 9 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:25
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds for a TD, (Harrison Heim pass to Ty Shelby for Two-Point Conversion)
+23.4
TD · Q4 12:45
Johnston White run for 34 yds for a TD, (Justice Hansen pass to Blake Mack for Two-Point Conversion)
-17.9
TD · Q3 4:54
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 27 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com