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APP

App State 31 at Georgia State 10

GAST
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Jalin Moore run for no gain to the GeoSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense−1.9Pregame prior−11.9Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:52: Jalin Moore run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) GEORGIA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — APP win probability +6.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:59: Conner Manning run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +9.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:55: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Collin Reed for 6 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +12.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:05: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 4 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +11.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:44: Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 8 — APP win probability +5.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 11:25GAST 4th & 1 at APP 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12GAST 4th & 3 at APP 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00APP 4th & 1 at GAST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−3.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:57GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:52GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 44, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:18APP 4th & 6 at GAST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:36GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03APP 4th & 4 at APP 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:05GAST 4th & 15 at GAST 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 21 at GAST 38, up 17
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:04GAST 4th & 9 at APP 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:44APP 4th & 4 at APP 10, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:46GAST 4th & 10 at APP 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:25APP 4th & 3 at GAST 14, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 11:52APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:59GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:55APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:05APP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:25APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:3535% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
34.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 13 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
34.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
34.5%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
34.5%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Smith, Glenn (Flory,Anthony), PENALTY APP pass interference (Flory,Anthony) 5 yards to the GSU47, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
34.5%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
34.5%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+10
34.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 10 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
36.1%
Brandon Wright punt blocked by Caleb Fuller blocked by Caleb FullerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
35.4%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Chandon Sullivan return for no gain to the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:0136% → 38%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
36.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 5 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
36.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 3 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+7
36.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 7 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
36.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 6 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+18
36.4%
Glenn Smith run for 18 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
36.5%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
36.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, IN ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-10
36.5%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Carter, Roger, PENALTY GSU holding (Paxton, Jamal) 10 yards to the APP45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+12
36.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tamir Jones for 12 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+5
36.4%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Carter, Roger, PENALTY APP offside defense (Townes,Rashaad) 5 yards to the APP28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
38.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny Hart, broken up by Clifton DuckSimilar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
37.8%
Brandon Wright 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 71 yds · 7:1262% → 62%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
37.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Levi Duffield for 11 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
37.3%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+13
37.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to T.J. Watkins for 13 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
36.9%
T.J. Watkins run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+4
36.8%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+25
36.7%
Jalin Moore run for 25 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
36.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
36.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+3
36.7%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
36.4%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
36.4%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
36.7%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.1%
Jalin Moore run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
40.0%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
39.9%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+5
39.3%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Hart, Penny, PENALTY APP offside defense (Fuller,Caleb) 5 yards to the GSU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
39.3%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
38.9%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the GeoSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:0262% → 69%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
37.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike LewisSimilar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
37.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Ike LewisSimilar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+14
38.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 14 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
37.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to T.J. Watkins for 4 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
37.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+20
37.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 20 yds to the GeoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.3%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) GEORGIA ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
33.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tra Barnett for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
34.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
34.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Devin Gentry for 6 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
34.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 3 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
34.6%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
33.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 7 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+3
32.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 3 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
32.6%
Taylor Lamb pass intercepted Antreal Allen return for no gain to the AppSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:3736% → 47%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
35.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 19 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
36.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the AppSt 16Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+13
36.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Roger Carter for 13 yds to the AppSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
36.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the AppSt 2Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.6%
Conner Manning run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:4160% → 63%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.2%
Jalin Moore run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
39.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to T.J. Watkins for 4 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
39.5%
Jalin Moore run for 8 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
38.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Jalin Moore) to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+5
40.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jalin Moore for 5 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
39.1%
Jalin Moore run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+20
38.0%
Jalin Moore run for 20 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
36.7%
Taylor Lamb run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
36.7%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
37.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
37.0%
Chandler Staton 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4238% → 38%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 6 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
39.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Devin GentrySimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
37.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tra Barnett for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
37.5%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 40 yds, downed at the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:2563% → 62%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
37.0%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+1
36.1%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+6
36.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Jones for 6 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
35.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jalin Moore for 4 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
36.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Dante Jones, broken up by Mackendy CheridorSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+2
36.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 2 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+18
38.2%
Jalin Moore run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0562% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
38.0%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
38.3%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+58
37.3%
Jalin Moore run for 58 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Collin Reed for 6 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
26.3%
Tra Barnett run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
26.6%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+30
26.1%
Tra Barnett run for 30 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
28.7%
Manning, Conner pass complete to Gentry, Devin for 7 yards to the APP38 (Howard,A.J.), PENALTY GSU holding (Carter, Roger) 10 yards to the GSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 20
OWN 45
0
27.2%
Tra Barnett run for no gain to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+61
26.8%
Conner Manning pass intercepted A.J. Howard return for 61 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3776% → 87%
Q3 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
24.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 4 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
15.4%
Glenn Smith run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
16.0%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
16.1%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
15.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tra Barnett for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 15
OWN 28
-10
15.2%
Manning, Conner rush for 6 yards to the GSU34, PENALTY GSU holding (Fareed, Jaylen) 10 yards to the GSU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 25
OWN 18
+4
15.2%
Glenn Smith run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 21
OWN 22
+6
15.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 6 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
15.1%
Brandon Wright punt for 49 yds, downed at the AppSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 39 yds · 4:5688% → 93%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
11.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 20 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
11.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
11.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to T.J. Watkins for 8 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
10.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
10.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+11
6.7%
Jalin Moore run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
6.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Ryan Neuzil) to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 15
OPP 32
-9
6.6%
Jalin Moore run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 26 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Noah Hannon) to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 24
OPP 41
-10
6.7%
Virgil,Jalen rush for 5 yards to the GSU36 (Heyward, Victor), PENALTY APP holding (Reed,Collin) 10 yards to the APP49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 34
OWN 49
+1
6.8%
Jalin Moore run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 33
50
+12
6.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 21
OPP 38
0
6.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 27 yds, downed at the GeoSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 41 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
9.0%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+30
9.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 30 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
10.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
10.1%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+7
9.8%
Conner Manning sacked by Eric Boggs for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Eric Boggs) to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
10.5%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
10.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 0
+3
8.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 18 yds to the GeoSt 30 GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Gabe Mobley) to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
9.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Devin Gentry for 3 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
10.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 8 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
10.5%
Tra Barnett run for 3 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
10.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-2
10.3%
Conner Manning sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
9.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 44 yds, downed at the AppSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
4.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+2
4.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 4
OWN 10
0
4.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
4.0%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:345% → 5%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
5.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd Boyd, broken up by Anthony FlorySimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
5.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn Smith, broken up by Tae HayesSimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+22
5.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 22 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
6.3%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-2
6.1%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 32 Glenn Smith fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Glenn SmithSimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+1
5.7%
Conner Manning run for 1 yd to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 4:46
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+50
5.3%
Brandon Wright 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:2197% → 100%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
3.4%
Jalin Moore run for 12 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
3.4%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+17
3.3%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, personal foul (Trey Payne) to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
3.2%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
3.2%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+14
2.1%
Jalin Moore run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
1.8%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
1.8%
Jalin Moore run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+3
1.9%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+14
0.3%
Taylor Lamb run for 14 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
0.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
0.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:55
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Collin Reed for 6 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q3 9:05
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Ike Lewis for 4 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q2 6:59
Conner Manning run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com