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TXST

Texas State 12 at Arkansas State 30

ARST
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:38 · Marcus Ripley punt for 38 yds, downed at the TexSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior+32.4Home team on offense+6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:42: Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn PAT MISSED) — TXST win probability +0.9 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:51: Anthony D. Taylor 18 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Foster Hilborn PAT blocked) — TXST win probability +5.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:54: Justice Hansen 1 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +4.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:13: Kendrick Edwards 12 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:54: Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 32 — TXST win probability +1.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 1 at ARST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35ARST 4th & 8 at TXST 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:24ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 7 at TXST 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:30TXST 4th & 27 at TXST 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:05ARST 4th & 2 at TXST 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:38TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:15ARST 4th & 3 at TXST 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:38TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:55ARST 4th & 4 at TXST 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    91.0%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:44ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:48TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 24, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:40TXST 4th & 20 at TXST 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 19 at TXST 16, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−1.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:57ARST 4th & 3 at TXST 33, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:54TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:55ARST 4th & 4 at TXST 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:07TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:24ARST 4th & 1 at TXST 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:42TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:40ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:37ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:51TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:54ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:13ARST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:185% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
95.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 17 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
95.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
95.3%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+5
95.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+3
95.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.3%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
95.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 6 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+3
95.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
95.3%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
95.3%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 19 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
95.3%
Aaron Brewer run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.3%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds for a TD, (Foster Hilborn PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:0795% → 94%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.5%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
94.5%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+33
94.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 33 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
94.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 2 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
94.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
94.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
94.0%
Sawyer Williams 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:4494% → 94%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
94.1%
Warren Wand run for 15 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
94.1%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the TexSt 8Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.2%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Chris French for 13 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
94.0%
Anthony Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-2
93.9%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
94.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
94.0%
Marcus Ripley punt for 9 yds, downed at the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 3:1394% → 94%
Q1 6:50
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+12
93.8%
Johnston White run for 12 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
93.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 12 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
93.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 5 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
93.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+6
93.8%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY TXST OF 6 yards to the TXST31, 1ST DOWN A-ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
93.9%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
93.9%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
93.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 9 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
93.9%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.1%
Justice Hansen 1 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
93.8%
Anthony Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 5Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 13
OWN 5
-4
93.8%
Anthony Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 1Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 17
OWN 1
+11
93.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 11 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:2494% → 93%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
93.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 1
50
-1
93.7%
Warren Wand run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 2:24
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+3
93.5%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
93.8%
Justice Hansen sacked by Jordan Mittie and Hal Vinson for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
93.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+13
93.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 13 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-5
93.2%
Hansen, Justice pass complete to Mack, Blake for 40 yards to the TXST0, clock 15:00, PENALTY A-ST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TXST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
93.1%
Damon Foncham punt for 17 yds, downed at the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+29
93.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Hutch White for 29 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
92.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-1
92.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 13
OPP 46
-8
93.0%
Damian Williams sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 40 Damian Williams fumbled, recovered by TexSt Anthony D. Taylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 27
OWN 40
0
93.3%
Marcus Ripley punt for 51 yds, downed at the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10DOWNS
18 plays · 82 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
92.6%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+13
92.6%
Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
92.7%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
92.7%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+6
92.7%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
92.9%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+10
92.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 10 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
93.0%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+6
93.0%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
93.0%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+7
92.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 7 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
93.1%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+9
93.1%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
93.1%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 2
OPP 9
0
93.1%
Chauncey Mason run for no gain to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
92.9%
Justice Hansen run for no gain to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 9
0
92.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Easy AnyamaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
91.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
91.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
92.1%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
92.3%
Marcus Ripley punt for 38 yds, downed at the TexSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
92.2%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
92.3%
Chauncey Mason run for no gain to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-1
92.0%
Chauncey Mason run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
91.6%
Damon Foncham punt for 28 yds, downed at the TexSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:158% → 7%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
91.7%
Anthony Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
91.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Dennis Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-10
92.1%
Damian Williams sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 17
OWN 5
+9
92.7%
Marcus Ripley punt for 46 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 9 yds to the ArkSt 14 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (12 Yards) to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
92.6%
Justice Hansen run for no gain to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
92.4%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon Paschal, broken up by Frankie GriffinSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
91.6%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+34
91.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 34 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
92.2%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+4
92.2%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
91.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+3
91.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 3 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:449% → 15%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+71
91.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 71 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
89.5%
Kieston Roach run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
89.5%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-10
90.1%
Williams, D. pass incomplete to Schrade,Gabe, PENALTY TXST holding 10 yards to the A-ST18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 16
OPP 18
+18
84.8%
Anthony D. Taylor 18 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Foster Hilborn PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
86.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 18 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
87.5%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
87.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
86.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
86.0%
Cody Grace punt for 43 yds, downed at the TexSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
85.6%
Anthony Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+10
85.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 10 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
85.2%
Anthony Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
85.3%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+4
86.0%
Anthony Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 4
OWN 24
-3
86.3%
Marcus Ripley run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:0987% → 92%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
87.2%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+6
87.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 6 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
87.2%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
87.2%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.1%
Justice Hansen 1 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 1 yds · 2:149% → 8%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.2%
Willie Jones III run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
90.8%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
91.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 6 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
90.7%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
91.3%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 13
OWN 33
-5
91.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 18
OWN 28
-2
91.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
92.3%
Marcus Ripley punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:2193% → 98%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
92.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 23 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
92.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 4 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
92.6%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
92.2%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
92.6%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
97.5%
Kendrick Edwards 12 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:133% → 3%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
96.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
96.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
96.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
96.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+2
96.7%
Marcus Ripley punt for 40 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:4598% → 99%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
97.5%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
97.5%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
97.4%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
97.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chauncey Mason for 7 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
97.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
97.5%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
98.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
97.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
97.3%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
97.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Dennis Johnson Jr., broken up by Kyle MartinSimilar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
97.4%
Marcus Ripley punt for 55 yds, downed at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25DOWNS
14 plays · 62 yds · 2:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
99.0%
Wand, Warren rush for 15 yards to the A-ST28, PENALTY A-ST holding 7 yards to the A-ST6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 17
OWN 6
+12
98.8%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+2
98.9%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+8
98.9%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
99.4%
Chauncey Mason run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+3
99.5%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.5%
Chauncey Mason run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
99.5%
Chauncey Mason run for 6 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
99.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 18 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.5%
Chauncey Mason run for 1 yd to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+1
99.5%
Chauncey Mason run for 1 yd to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+4
99.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 4
OPP 25
0
99.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
98.1%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Dennis Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
98.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
98.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
98.1%
Marcus Ripley punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.6%
Chauncey Mason run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
99.5%
Chauncey Mason run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
99.5%
Chauncey Mason run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+9
99.5%
Chauncey Mason run for 9 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:51
Anthony D. Taylor 18 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Foster Hilborn PAT blocked)
-5.3
TD · Q3 0:13
Kendrick Edwards 12 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)
+5
TD · Q3 4:54
Justice Hansen 1 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams Kick)
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com