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ARST

Arkansas State 19 at South Alabama 24

USA
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:32 · Sawyer Williams 32 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior−15.3Home team on offense+2.3Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score differential+0.5Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:15: Tra Minter run for 5 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +4.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:36: Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 39 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +19.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:23: Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARST win probability +22.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:08: Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 16 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +22.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:13: Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 14 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK) — ARST win probability +16.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:06USA 4th & 1 at USA 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:46USA 4th & 13 at ARST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:15USA 4th & 1 at ARST 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:52USA 4th & 16 at ARST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:20ARST 4th & 5 at USA 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−5.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:42ARST 4th & 19 at USA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.9
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    54.9%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:42USA 4th & 23 at USA 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−1.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:17ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 47, down 4
    Close callPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:26USA 4th & 10 at USA 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:30ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:23USA 4th & 3 at USA 32, up 4
    Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:32ARST 4th & 7 at USA 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−7.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:32USA 4th & 6 at USA 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:15ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−2.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:12USA 4th & 6 at USA 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:35ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−4.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:13USA 4th & 8 at USA 16, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−3.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:10ARST 4th & 1 at USA 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−6.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−18.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:12USA 4th & 15 at USA 27, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−4.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:15USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:36USA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:23ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:08USA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:13ARST Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 1:5419% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
19.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 5 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+5
19.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Maaseiah Francis for 5 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
19.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 5 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
19.1%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
19.1%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 5
OWN 0
0
19.8%
Waitman,Corliss punt 55 yards to the A-ST24, downed, PENALTY A-ST personal foul (Ellis-Brewer, T) 0 yards to the USA21, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY, PENALTY USA unsportsmanlike conduct (McDonald,Khalil) 0 yards to the USA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
20.0%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 16
OWN 15
-3
20.0%
Cole Garvin run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 12Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 19
OWN 12
+18
19.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 18 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
19.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 35 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 37 Blaise Taylor fumbled, recovered by SAlab Finesse Middleton ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
21.5%
Cole Garvin sacked by Ronheen Bingham for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 41 Cole Garvin fumbled, recovered by SAlab Cole Garvin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+1
21.3%
Carlos Robinson II run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
21.2%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jordan McCray, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
21.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 27 yds, downed at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
21.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 8 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+4
21.7%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.9%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Tobias Moss return for no gain to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:0423% → 27%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
23.1%
Cole Garvin sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+22
22.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 22 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
23.1%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Khameron TaylorSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
23.1%
Garvin, Cole pass complete to Harris, Sam for 5 yards to the A-ST9 (Taylor, Blaise), PENALTY A-ST offside defense (Bingham, R.) 5 yards to the A-ST9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
23.1%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
22.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 4 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
27.0%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0074% → 75%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
25.8%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+10
25.7%
Justice Hansen run for 10 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
25.3%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Sean Grayer return for no gain to the SAlab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:2228% → 31%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-15
27.7%
Garvin, Cole pass complete to Gardner, David for 8 yards to the USA37 (Bonner, Caleb), PENALTY USA illegal block (Louden,Harrison) 15 yards to the USA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 25
OWN 14
+21
27.6%
Carlos Robinson II run for 6 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (B.J. Edmonds) to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
27.8%
Carlos Robinson II run for 3 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
28.3%
Carlos Robinson II run for 2 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+37
28.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 37 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-9
28.7%
Cole Garvin sacked by Ronheen Bingham for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 19
OPP 32
+3
28.3%
Cole Garvin run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 16
OPP 29
0
27.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 16
OPP 29
+46
30.6%
Gavin Patterson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:3269% → 67%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
31.1%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
31.0%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+2
31.8%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
31.6%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+18
31.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 18 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
30.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 3 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+9
30.9%
Justice Hansen run for 9 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
30.1%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+15
30.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 15 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
30.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
30.1%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+7
34.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 7 yds to the SAlab 7 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
33.0%
Sawyer Williams 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
34.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 8 yds Malik Stanley fumbled, forced by Blaise Taylor, recovered by ArkSt Blaise TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2569% → 68%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
31.4%
Darveon Brown pass complete to Justice Hansen for 14 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
31.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 5 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-14
31.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the SAlab 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Justice HansenSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 19
OPP 23
0
33.5%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 19
OPP 23
+40
32.1%
Sawyer Williams 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
33.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 5 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-7
33.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-8
32.2%
Garvin, Cole pass complete to Minter, Tra for 11 yards to the USA30 (Edmonds, BJ), PENALTY USA illegal block (Taylor,D'Tvieus) 8 yards to the USA11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 20
OWN 11
-3
32.2%
Carlos Robinson II run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 8Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 23
OWN 8
0
31.3%
Corliss Waitman punt for 51 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
32.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+2
33.8%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+3
33.6%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+6
33.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 6 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
33.2%
Cody Grace punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
37.6%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+22
37.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to David Gardner for 22 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
38.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
37.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
36.9%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
36.0%
TEAM punt, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:2364% → 60%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
35.7%
Justice Hansen sacked by Zach Befort for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-5
36.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+1
37.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jamal Jones for 1 yd to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+3
37.8%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
40.3%
Cody Grace punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 7 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
40.0%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jordan McCray, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+3
38.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 45 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
39.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 7 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
37.4%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
38.7%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Darrell Songy return for no gain to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:2043% → 47%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
43.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
43.0%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+17
41.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 17 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
44.0%
TEAM pass incomplete, PENALTY A-ST substitution infraction 5 yards to the A-ST25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 5
OWN 0
+24
40.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 24 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
46.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 8 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SAlabSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17MISSED FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 4:2859% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
41.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
40.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+18
40.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 18 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
37.8%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
37.5%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+11
37.8%
Johnston White run for 11 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
36.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
36.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 3 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+8
38.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
36.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
36.8%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
46.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Malcolm BuggsSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
48.3%
Sawyer Williams 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
50.0%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 21Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
49.8%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
48.7%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Tra MinterSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
48.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0050% → 46%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
50.5%
Justice Hansen sacked by Sean Grayer for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
51.9%
Warren Wand run for no gain to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
53.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
53.9%
Cody Grace punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Sam Harris at the SAlab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
52.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sam Harris, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
52.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 5 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 0
+5
51.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Andrew Reinkemeyer for 5 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
53.1%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 30Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
52.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 4 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
52.0%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+34
51.5%
Corliss Waitman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the SOUTHALA 17 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, kick catching interference (Quinton Lane) to the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0046% → 43%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
54.1%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Taji Stewart) to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
51.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
52.2%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 9
50
-9
53.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Wade Forde for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
57.1%
Cody Grace punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Sam Harris at the SAlab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:1658% → 81%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
57.5%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+5
58.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 5 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
58.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 12 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
59.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 17 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
61.5%
Carlos Robinson II run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+39
80.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 39 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:1321% → 44%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
79.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
78.6%
Justice Hansen run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+50
78.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 50 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
56.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1562% → 91%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
62.0%
Minter, Tra rush for 6 yards to the USA31 (Ransom, Donovan), PENALTY USA holding (Reinkemeyer, A) 10 yards to the USA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
61.9%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
61.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+20
60.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 20 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
63.7%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
63.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (Christian Howard) to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
65.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+41
63.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 41 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
68.3%
Carlos Robinson II run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
68.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jordan McCray, broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+16
90.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 16 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 2:5514% → 33%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
85.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+11
85.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 11 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Tobias MossSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
85.6%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+10
85.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 10 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
83.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 15 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
83.5%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to White, Johnston, PENALTY USA pass interference (Songy, Darrell) 8 yards to the USA8, 1ST DOWN A-ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
83.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q4 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
83.5%
Justice Hansen sacked by Tre Alford for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
67.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 14 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0073% → 70%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
72.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Andrew Reinkemeyer for 7 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-5
73.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Andrew Reinkemeyer) to the SAlab 16Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
72.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sam Harris, broken up by Darreon JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
70.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 8
OWN 16
0
70.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27FUMBLE
10 plays · 55 yds · 0:0031% → 33%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
69.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 8 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+9
66.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
67.1%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
67.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+7
67.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 7 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
69.1%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+23
64.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 23 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Malcolm BuggsSimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.5%
Johnston White run for no gain to the SAlab 4Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
67.1%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds Justice Hansen fumbled, forced by Bull Barge, recovered by SAlab Malcolm BuggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:5384% → 89%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
83.8%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
84.1%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
83.4%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
84.2%
Carlos Robinson II run for 8 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 2
OWN 40
-2
85.9%
Carlos Robinson II run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-11
89.4%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 11 yards to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
89.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 40 yds, downed at the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
90.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 4 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+9
89.6%
Justice Hansen run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Darrell SongySimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
89.8%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Jeremy Reaves return for 7 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
94.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 12
50
-2
93.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 14
OWN 48
-2
92.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:08
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 16 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
+22.7
TD · Q3 0:23
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-22
TD · Q3 1:36
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 39 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
+19.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com