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ARST

Arkansas State 37 at New Mexico State 21

NMSU
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:50 · Peyton Theisler punt for 38 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 13 yds to the NMxSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 187Home team on offense−33.9Pregame prior−0.9Score differential−14.9Garbage-time factor−13.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:24: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:55: Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 23 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK) — ARST win probability +18.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:56: Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +22.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:15: Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 12 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK) — ARST win probability +24.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:16: Chris Murray 37 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Damon Foncham PAT failed) — ARST win probability +18.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:04NMSU 4th & 8 at ARST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:58ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:46NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:41ARST 4th & 7 at NMSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:10NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:20ARST 4th & 10 at NMSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:40NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:26NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 13:30NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:46ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:12NMSU 4th & 21 at ARST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:18ARST 4th & 28 at ARST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00ARST 4th & 14 at NMSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    36.3%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:32NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:12ARST 4th & 10 at NMSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−7.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 9:12NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:38NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:36ARST 4th & 13 at NMSU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−4.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−13.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:15NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:50NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 22, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:24ARST 4th & 5 at NMSU 42, up 16
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−0.2
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:14NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 8, down 16
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 1:25ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:46NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:24NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:55ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:56NMSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:15ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:16ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:02ARST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5641% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
41.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
41.4%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
41.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 10 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
41.4%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-5
41.4%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Christian Howard for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+5
41.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
42.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
42.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 10 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
42.2%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 21
OWN 34
+7
42.6%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
42.6%
Cody Grace punt for 39 yds, downed at the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+4
42.5%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 16
OWN 39
-5
42.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Chris Murray) to the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
43.3%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
43.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
43.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+7
42.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 52 yds for a 1ST down , Blaise Taylor returns for 7 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
43.3%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+21
43.3%
Justice Hansen run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Javahn Fergurson) to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
42.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
42.6%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
42.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Dalton HerringtonSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
43.3%
Cody Grace punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
44.0%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+8
44.0%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
44.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
44.0%
Jason Huntley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
43.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
43.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
44.2%
Justice Hansen run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
43.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Roy Lopez for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+5
44.0%
Justice Hansen run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
43.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
44.5%
Cody Grace punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
45.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-4
45.1%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 14
OWN 13
0
44.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 14
OWN 13
+19
44.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 46 yds for a 1ST down , Blaise Taylor returns for 19 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:0757% → 61%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
50
+12
43.4%
Justice Hansen run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
43.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 8 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+9
43.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 9 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
38.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 21 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4741% → 39%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
41.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
40.9%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
41.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
39.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 40 yds, downed at the ArkSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1760% → 60%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
39.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, SUB (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+8
39.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-1
39.6%
Justice Hansen sacked by Malik Demby for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+4
40.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 4 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
40.4%
Cody Grace punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
39.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 1 yd to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
39.2%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Hunter Moreton for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+12
38.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
38.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
39.0%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+11
39.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 11 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
38.6%
Justice Hansen sacked by Malik Demby for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 24 Justice Hansen fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Jeremy Hodge , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:0742% → 51%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
41.7%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
41.7%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+15
40.8%
Larry Rose III run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.8%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.0%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -22 yds · 0:0057% → 52%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 0
-7
42.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Trent Ellis-Brewer) to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
46.4%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-4
46.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Jacob Still) to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 11
OWN 5
-2
46.7%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 13
OWN 3
0
47.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Malik DembySimilar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 13
OWN 3
0
48.1%
Cody Grace punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
50.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
49.6%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+13
48.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 13 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+8
49.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Caleb Bonner) to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.9%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
50.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for no gain to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-11
49.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Caleb Caston for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 21
OPP 49
+5
47.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 26 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 5 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
50.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Christian Howard and Griffin Riggs for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 2:4855% → 51%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
45.3%
Chauncey Mason run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+11
45.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to A.J. Cayetano for 11 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
43.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 7 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+8
42.9%
Kyle Wilson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
42.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-4
43.0%
Justice Hansen sacked by Dalton Herrington for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-15
45.5%
Hansen, Justice pass complete to McInnis, Justin for 9 yards to the NMSU38 (Owens, DeMarcus), PENALTY A-ST pass interference (Murray, Chris) 15 yards to the A-ST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 29
OWN 38
+1
47.6%
Chauncey Mason run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 28
OWN 39
0
48.6%
Cody Grace punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 0:4750% → 67%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
49.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 5 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+17
49.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 17 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
51.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
50.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+18
49.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 18 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+41
54.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 41 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.2%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
61.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+26
59.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 11 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Terrill Hanks) to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
58.3%
Justice Hansen run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-7
56.4%
Justice Hansen sacked by Javahn Fergurson for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-5
58.9%
Justice Hansen sacked by Billy Nipp for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
62.5%
Cody Grace punt for 43 yds, downed at the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
63.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 9 yds to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+1
63.7%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
63.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for no gain to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
63.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+1
62.3%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
61.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 32 yds, downed at the NMxSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0839% → 41%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
61.0%
Omar Bayless run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+18
62.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 18 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
58.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
59.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
61.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
58.9%
Sawyer Williams 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.8%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
59.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose III, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+17
58.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 17 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:2643% → 63%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
57.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 6 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+19
55.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 19 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
54.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
54.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 10 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
53.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
54.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick Edwards, broken up by DeMarcus OwensSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
36.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 23 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24INT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
41.3%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-3
40.6%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Ronheen Bingham and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
39.1%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted B.J. Edmonds return for no gain to the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
36.1%
Jamal Jones run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
34.2%
Jamal Jones run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-9
34.2%
Justice Hansen sacked by Dalton Herrington for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
37.6%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Shamad Lomax return for no gain to the NMxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
40.5%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
40.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 5 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 2
OWN 25
-3
39.8%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+54
37.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 19 , Blaise Taylor returns for 54 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27MISSED FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0067% → 61%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
32.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-3
33.2%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 13
OPP 22
0
36.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Dalton HerringtonSimilar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+39
39.3%
Sawyer Williams 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 28TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:4040% → 71%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
40.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 5 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+15
41.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 15 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+55
44.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 55 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
48.4%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:4139% → 71%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
60.6%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
60.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 6 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+6
57.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 6 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
57.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 17 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
54.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick Edwards, broken up by Shamad LomaxSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+20
54.9%
Justice Hansen run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
54.1%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
29.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 12 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
39.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
40.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
37.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 38 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:4965% → 86%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
34.7%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
34.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 4 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+6
33.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 6 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
32.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 21 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
13.9%
Chris Murray 37 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Damon Foncham PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 32INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0016% → 18%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jarrod Chandler) to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+61
18.2%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Jefferie Gibson return for 61 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 33TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:5288% → 95%
Q4 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
11.8%
Justice Hansen run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
4.7%
Johnston White run for 8 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 34PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:126% → 5%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.9%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
5.8%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-9
4.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-9 Yards) to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+13
4.6%
Jason Huntley run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+13
4.7%
Peyton Theisler punt for 38 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 13 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 35PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1696% → 99%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
3.7%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
3.6%
Jamal Jones run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
2.1%
Chauncey Mason run for no gain to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
1.5%
Cody Grace punt for 41 yds, downed at the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 36PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
2.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Jaleel Scott) to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
2.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
2.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+7
2.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 7 yds to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 3
OWN 8
+54
2.5%
Peyton Theisler punt for 54 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 37END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
1.4%
Chauncey Mason run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
1.3%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:15
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 12 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)
-24.6
TD · Q4 14:56
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
+22.4
TD · Q3 6:55
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 23 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)
-18.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com