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USA

South Alabama 13 at Georgia State 21

GAST
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2017 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:20 · Brandon Wright 50 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense+14.2Garbage-time factor+7.3Score differential+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Pregame prior+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:58: Gavin Patterson 28 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +3.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 1:43: Kyler Neal run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +11.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:55: Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 8 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +7.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:11: Dallas Davis pass complete to Jamarius Way for 75 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +3.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:29: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 40 — GAST win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 8:53USA 4th & 4 at GAST 25, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:44GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:30USA 4th & 8 at USA 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:29USA 4th & 6 at GAST 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:14GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:58USA 4th & 7 at GAST 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:52GAST 4th & 5 at midfield, up 4
    Close callPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:14USA 4th & 7 at USA 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:05USA 4th & 2 at USA 48, down 11
    Close callPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:28GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:59USA 4th & 4 at USA 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:20GAST 4th & 13 at USA 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:08USA 4th & 9 at GAST 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:13GAST 4th & 6 at USA 34, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    94.2%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:55USA 4th & 3 at GAST 36, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:41USA 4th & 7 at GAST 7, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:45GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 26, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:32USA 4th & 3 at GAST 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−2.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 13:09GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:43GAST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:55GAST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:11USA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2145% → 45%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
54.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+30
54.9%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted Bryan Williams return for 30 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:1155% → 56%
Q1 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
55.1%
Glenn Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 7Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
55.2%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:0744% → 43%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
55.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jamarius Way for 7 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+9
56.1%
Jamarius Way run for 9 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
56.2%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
56.3%
Malik Stanley run for 3 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+24
56.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jordan McCray for 24 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
56.3%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+8
56.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Malik Stanley for 8 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
56.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
57.4%
Gavin Patterson 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0458% → 58%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.8%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
58.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 10 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Kyler NealSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
58.7%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
58.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
58.3%
Brandon Wright punt for 53 yds, downed at the SAlab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0541% → 40%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
58.8%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 4Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 12
OWN 4
-1
59.3%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 3Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 13
OWN 3
+5
59.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Malik Stanley for 5 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
60.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:4261% → 61%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
60.8%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+9
61.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 9 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
61.4%
Penny Hart run for 1 yd to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+3
61.4%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the SAlab 36 Kyler Neal fumbled, forced by Jeremy Reaves, recovered by SAlab Darian MillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3140% → 39%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
59.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sam Harris for 7 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
59.2%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jamarius Way for 6 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
59.3%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
59.7%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+4
60.1%
Dallas Davis run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
60.7%
Corliss Waitman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0761% → 60%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
61.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jawan NoblesSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
61.3%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+6
60.8%
Conner Manning run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 4
OWN 17
-9
60.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Sideline Interference (TEAM) to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 13
OWN 8
+4
60.4%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 38 yds , Sa'Mory Collier returns for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:0240% → 42%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
59.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jordan McCray for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+11
59.8%
Denzel Foster run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
59.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Denzel Foster for 6 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-1
59.3%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+8
60.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jamarius Way for 8 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
59.5%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
59.7%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
60.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
57.7%
Gavin Patterson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:5359% → 59%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
59.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 21 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
60.6%
Glenn Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 5
50
0
60.9%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Ari WertsSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 5
50
0
60.3%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 5
50
0
59.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1641% → 40%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
58.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sam Harris for 3 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
59.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 3 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+12
59.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 12 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.3%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
58.5%
Dallas Davis run for 2 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+1
59.0%
Dallas Davis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+54
60.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 50 yds, downed at the GEORGIAST 9 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (4 Yards) to the GeoSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
9 plays · 95 yds · 3:1960% → 76%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
60.4%
Manning, Conner pass complete to Smith, Glenn for 9 yards to the GEORGIAST14, PENALTY SOUTHALA holding (Moss, Tobias) 10 yards to the GEORGIAST15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
60.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 11 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
61.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
60.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 7 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+4
60.7%
Devin Gentry run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
62.2%
Glenn Smith run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+16
63.6%
Glenn Smith run for 16 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+34
64.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 34 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.9%
Kyler Neal run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 1:2026% → 25%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
73.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jamarius Way for 8 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+12
73.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sam Harris for 12 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
73.5%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
73.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sam Harris for 12 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
74.6%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
75.0%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
75.5%
Dallas Davis run for 8 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
74.8%
Corliss Waitman punt for 50 yds, downed at the GeoSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
75.4%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1276% → 75%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
75.6%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
76.3%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+4
75.4%
Conner Manning run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+14
74.9%
Brandon Wright punt for 45 yds , Sam Harris returns for 14 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2425% → 23%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
74.8%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Maaseiah FrancisSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
75.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+3
76.1%
Dallas Davis run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
76.6%
Corliss Waitman punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Penny Hart at the GeoSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17MISSED FG
17 plays · 51 yds · 7:1377% → 81%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
77.0%
Kyler Neal run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+10
77.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tamir Jones for 10 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
77.5%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
78.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
78.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tamir Jones for 5 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
80.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
79.8%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+15
79.0%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Hart, Penny, PENALTY SOUTHALA roughing passer 15 yards to the SOUTHALA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
80.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
80.7%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+10
80.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kyler Neal for 10 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
81.1%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-10
81.7%
Smith, Glenn rush for 8 yards to the SOUTHALA19, PENALTY GEORGIAST holding (Mobley, Gabe) 10 yards to the SOUTHALA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+2
81.2%
Glenn Smith run for 2 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 16
OPP 35
0
81.7%
Manning, Conner pass complete to Hart, Penny for 17 yards to the SOUTHALA18, PENALTY GEORGIAST holding 0 yards to the SOUTHALA35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+3
81.9%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+50
80.7%
Brandon Wright 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0420% → 20%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
80.1%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
81.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Andrew Reinkemeyer for 6 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+15
81.0%
Davis, Dallas pass incomplete to Way, Jamarius, PENALTY GEORGIAST pass interference (Smith, Jerome) 15 yards to the GEORGIAST46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUTHALA.Similar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
79.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sam Harris for 16 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
78.8%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+8
78.6%
Dallas Davis run for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 29 Dallas Davis fumbled, recovered by SAlab Dallas Davis Dallas Davis run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
80.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
80.4%
Gavin Patterson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:5783% → 94%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
83.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 5 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
83.3%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+9
82.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 9 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+45
83.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 45 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
86.4%
Glenn Smith run for 10 yds to the SAlab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
86.6%
Conner Manning run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 12Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
86.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tamir Jones for 4 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 8 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:088% → 7%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tra MinterSimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.1%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Malik Stanley for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
92.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tra Minter for 2 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+41
92.6%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted Cedric Stone return for 26 yds to the GEORGIAST 39 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the SAlab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5495% → 95%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
95.1%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
95.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kyler Neal for 3 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
95.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
94.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:237% → 4%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
93.5%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
93.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sam Harris for 9 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+14
93.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jamarius Way for 14 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.5%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
94.0%
Deonta Moore run for no gain to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+7
94.4%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jordan McCray for 7 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+7
94.7%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Deonta Moore for 7 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
93.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Andrew Reinkemeyer for 7 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+14
94.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Sam Harris for 14 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
94.2%
Deonta Moore run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.5%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.8%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.3%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 1:5097% → 98%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
96.8%
Glenn Smith run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+8
97.1%
Glenn Smith run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.4%
Glenn Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
97.9%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+1
98.1%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
98.2%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 44 yds, downed at the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:091% → 4%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
99.1%
Dallas Davis sacked by Dontae Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 25Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+75
95.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Jamarius Way for 75 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:287% → 6%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
92.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Deonta Moore for 7 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
92.1%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
92.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
93.6%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 1:2997% → 97%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:43
Kyler Neal run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q4 12:55
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 8 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
+7.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:29
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 40
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com