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UL

Louisiana 3 at Arkansas State 47

ARST
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2017 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:29 · Cody Grace punt for 32 yds, downed at the LaLaf 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense+3.8Pregame prior+29.4Score differential+1.9Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:39: Johnston White 1 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +1.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 2:10: Stevie Artigue 51 Yd Field Goal — UL win probability +1.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:07: Justin McInnis 44 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +4.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:59: Justice Hansen 20 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams PAT failed) — ARST win probability +4.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:01: Justin McInnis 6 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 10:42UL 4th & 28 at UL 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:18UL 4th & 12 at ARST 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:29ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:10UL 4th & 8 at ARST 34, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:25UL 4th & 7 at UL 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:37ARST 4th & 7 at UL 16, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:21UL 4th & 4 at UL 40, down 18
    Close callPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:23UL 4th & 5 at ARST 32, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.0%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:21ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 37, up 24
    Close callPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:59UL 4th & 3 at ARST 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:17ARST 4th & 7 at UL 19, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:21UL 4th & 5 at UL 24, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:46ARST 4th & 6 at UL 7, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:41UL 4th & 4 at ARST 44, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:52ARST 4th & 10 at UL 39, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:00UL 4th & 12 at UL 43, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:45ARST 4th & 3 at UL 11, up 34
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:40UL 4th & 8 at UL 25, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:17UL 4th & 6 at ARST 46, down 44
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:42ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 14, up 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:05UL 4th & 9 at UL 34, down 44
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:17ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:39ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:07ARST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:59ARST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:01ARST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:10ARST Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3316% → 16%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
84.0%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+13
83.9%
Andre Nunez run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-24
83.9%
Caleb Caston 24 Yd Fumble Return (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:2316% → 16%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
83.9%
Nunez, Andre pass incomplete to Barnes, Keenan, PENALTY ARKST pass interference 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULLAFAYTTE.Similar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.9%
Andre Nunez run for no gain to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
83.8%
Trey Ragas run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
83.7%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 11
OWN 43
-8
83.7%
Andre Nunez sacked by Hunter Moreton for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 19
OWN 35
-9
83.8%
Andre Nunez sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 28
OWN 26
0
83.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 47 yds, downed at the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:5084% → 85%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
83.7%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+33
83.7%
Justice Hansen run for 33 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+34
84.0%
Chauncey Mason pass complete to Justice Hansen for 34 yds to the LaLaf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.9%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.1%
Johnston White 1 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:0015% → 15%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
84.7%
Darius Hoggins run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
84.9%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+25
85.0%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ryheem Malone for 25 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
84.7%
Darius Hoggins run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
84.7%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-2
84.8%
Darius Hoggins run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 12
OPP 39
0
85.0%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 12
OPP 39
+13
85.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 10 LOUISIANA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-16 Yards) to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3786% → 85%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.7%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
85.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
85.6%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
85.4%
Cody Grace punt for 32 yds, downed at the LaLaf 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:0915% → 16%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
85.1%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-1
85.2%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+15
85.4%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Darius Hoggins for 15 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
85.1%
Andre Nunez pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 12 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.1%
Ja'Marcus Bradley pass incomplete to Chase RogersSimilar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
84.9%
Darius Hoggins run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
84.9%
Andre Nunez pass incomplete to Michael JacquetSimilar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
83.7%
Stevie Artigue 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
83.7%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 21 Jamal Jones fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Jarvis JeffriesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:0817% → 17%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
82.6%
Andre Nunez sacked by Javier Carbonell for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 14
OPP 25
0
82.9%
Jordan Wright run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 14
OPP 25
0
83.4%
Andre Nunez pass intercepted, touchback. Michael Johnson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:2684% → 89%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
83.7%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
83.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
83.6%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
83.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 16 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
84.3%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
84.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+44
88.5%
Justin McInnis 44 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1512% → 11%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
88.3%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 13
OWN 11
-3
88.5%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Michael Jacquet for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 16
OWN 8
+9
88.8%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
88.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:3789% → 89%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
89.3%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
89.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 6 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+6
89.1%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
89.5%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
89.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
89.7%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
89.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chauncey MasonSimilar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 7
OPP 16
-18
89.1%
Damon Foncham run for a loss of 18 yards to the LaLaf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0611% → 11%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
88.9%
Jordan Davis run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+1
88.7%
Darius Hoggins run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
89.0%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
89.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:0790% → 95%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
89.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 9 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+9
90.0%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
90.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
90.3%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
89.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 4 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+18
90.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 18 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-13
90.5%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 25 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 23
OPP 40
+6
90.7%
Justice Hansen run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 17
OPP 34
+9
90.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 9 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+11
90.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 11 yds to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
90.8%
Justice Hansen sacked by Joe Dillon and Taboris Lee for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+5
90.9%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-5
91.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+20
95.1%
Justice Hansen 20 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:256% → 6%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+25
93.9%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 25 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
93.6%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Keenan Barnes for 23 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.5%
Jordan Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
93.6%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
93.6%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Keenan BarnesSimilar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+49
93.8%
Stevie Artigue 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5596% → 96%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
95.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-4
95.6%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+2
95.5%
Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+29
95.5%
Cody Grace punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Earnest Patterson at the ARKST 29 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:186% → 6%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
94.5%
Jordan Davis run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+19
94.2%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Jordan Wright for 19 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
93.9%
Jordan Davis run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
93.4%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+1
93.8%
Jordan Wright run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
94.2%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Keenan Barnes for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 0:5397% → 99%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
96.5%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
96.6%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
96.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+6
96.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 6 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+32
96.6%
Justice Hansen run for 32 yds to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.9%
Justin McInnis 6 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 2:3599% → 99%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
98.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
50
+8
99.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 8 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
98.9%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 15 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.1%
Justin McInnis run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
99.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Johnston White for 6 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-6
99.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 4 yds to the LaLaf 9 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
99.0%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
99.0%
Sawyer Williams 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.2%
Jordan Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.2%
Jordan Davis run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
99.3%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Keenan BarnesSimilar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
99.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2399% → 99%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.1%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+16
99.2%
Johnston White run for 16 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
99.3%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Edwards, Kendrick, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference 13 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST.Similar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
99.4%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+17
99.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 17 yds to the LaLaf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.5%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
99.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
99.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
99.4%
Sawyer Williams 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:561% → 0%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Jordan Davis run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.4%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
99.5%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 11 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Michael JacquetSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.5%
Jordan Davis run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.6%
Jordan Davis run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
99.5%
Trey Ragas run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-3
99.7%
Trey Ragas run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 44 Trey Ragas fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Andre NunezSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
99.7%
Andre Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
99.7%
Justice Hansen run for 17 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Cody Grace punt for 36 yds, downed at the LaLaf 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:390% → 0%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
99.8%
Darius Hoggins run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+12
99.8%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 12 yds to the LaLaf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.8%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
99.8%
Jordan Davis run for no gain to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+17
99.8%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 17 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.8%
Darius Hoggins run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+9
99.8%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 9 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
99.8%
Darius Hoggins run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Michael JacquetSimilar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Devin ScottSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
99.8%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+23
99.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 23 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
99.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+25
99.8%
Chauncey Mason run for 25 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.8%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE personal foul 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST.Similar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
99.9%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
99.9%
Sawyer Williams 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.9%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Michael Jacquet for 1 yd to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-7
99.9%
Jordan Davis sacked by Caleb Caston for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 16
OWN 17
+8
99.9%
Jordan Wright run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.9%
Justice Hansen run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Chauncey Mason run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Chauncey Mason run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
Chauncey Mason run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+10
99.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Javonis Isaac for 10 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
99.9%
Jamal Jones run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+7
99.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jamal Jones for 7 yds to the LaLaf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Chauncey Mason 10 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 28PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+4
100.0%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
100.0%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
100.0%
Jordan Davis pass complete to Raymond Calais for 9 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
100.0%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
50
0
100.0%
Jordan Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
50
+4
100.0%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Jordan Davis pass incomplete to Keenan BarnesSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
100.0%
Armond Weh-Weh run for no gain to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
100.0%
Logan Bonner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+4
100.0%
Logan Bonner run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
100.0%
Cody Grace punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Earnest Patterson at the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-11
100.0%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Illegal Block (-11 Yards) to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 21
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Dion Ray run for no gain to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 21
OWN 22
-4
100.0%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 25
OWN 18
+16
100.0%
Raymond Calais run for 16 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:07
Justin McInnis 44 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)
+4.2
TD · Q2 4:59
Justice Hansen 20 Yd Run (Sawyer Williams PAT failed)
+4.1
TD · Q2 0:01
Justin McInnis 6 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com