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GAST

Georgia State 47 at UL Monroe 37

ULM
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Harrison Heim punt for 51 yds , Taz Bateman returns for 5 yds to the GeoSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior+11.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:42: Devin Gentry run for 15 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +11.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:29: Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +13.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:11: Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 80 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +14.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:07: Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK) — GAST win probability +13.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:19: Kayin White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +13.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42ULM 4th & 3 at GAST 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:25GAST 4th & 2 at ULM 42, up 6
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:19ULM 4th & 3 at GAST 20, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:17GAST 4th & 6 at ULM 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:17ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 40, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:05GAST 4th & 24 at GAST 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−2.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:04ULM 4th & 16 at ULM 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:17ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00GAST 4th & 14 at midfield, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−2.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:39GAST 4th & 1 at ULM 41, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−5.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:24ULM 4th & 4 at GAST 34, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:06ULM 4th & 14 at GAST 14, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:20GAST 4th & 5 at ULM 47, up 10
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:09ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 11, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:59GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:45ULM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:42GAST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:42GAST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:29GAST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:11ULM Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:07GAST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:19ULM Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:24GAST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:06ULM Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:34ULM Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
61.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
61.6%
Derrick Gore run for 8 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
61.6%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+5
61.6%
Harrison Heim punt for 51 yds , Taz Bateman returns for 5 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:2938% → 40%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
61.6%
Taz Bateman run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
61.6%
Taz Bateman run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
61.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
61.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 14 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
61.4%
Glenn Smith run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 9
50
+50
60.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 50 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0338% → 40%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
61.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 4 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
60.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Devin Gentry for 69 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
61.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
61.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+2
61.1%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 3
OPP 33
-17
60.8%
Caleb Evans sacked by Trey Payne and Terry Thomas for a loss of 17 yards to the 50 yard line UL MONROE Penalty, intentional grounding (Caleb Evans) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
50
+1
59.6%
Taz Bateman run for 1 yd to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
59.6%
Taz Bateman run for 7 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
59.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
60.0%
Brandon Wright punt for 41 yds, downed at the LaMon 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7FG
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:4860% → 60%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
59.6%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
59.6%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the LaMon 3Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+16
59.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Darius Rodrigue for 16 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
59.7%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+11
59.7%
Marcus Green run for 11 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
59.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 9 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+8
60.4%
Ben Luckett run for 8 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
60.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to RJ Turner for 9 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+16
60.7%
Duke Carter IV run for 16 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
61.1%
Duke Carter IV run for no gain to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-3
61.1%
Caleb Evans sacked by Malik Ricks for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+10
60.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 10 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
59.8%
Craig Ford 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:0241% → 46%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
59.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Taz Bateman for 13 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
58.4%
Taz Bateman run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+7
58.2%
Taz Bateman run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
58.2%
Taz Bateman run for 6 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+32
57.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 32 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
56.6%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
56.6%
Kyler Neal run for no gain to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
57.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
54.5%
Brandon Wright 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
56.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 1 yd to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
56.3%
Derrick Gore run for 5 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
56.8%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
56.5%
Harrison Heim punt for 51 yds, downed at the GeoSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
54.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Taz Bateman for 16 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.7%
Taz Bateman run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
53.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 8 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
53.2%
Bateman, Taz rush for 3 yards to the GSU38 (Veasley, Jalen;Husmann, Mason), PENALTY GSU holding (Werts, Ari) 10 yards to the GSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-5
54.1%
Conner Manning sacked by Donald Louis Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 25
OWN 20
+1
54.2%
Taz Bateman run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 24
OWN 21
0
54.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 24
OWN 21
0
55.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 71 yds, downed at the LaMon 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+18
52.0%
Caleb Evans run for 18 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
52.6%
Ben Luckett run for 7 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
53.8%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
53.2%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-14
53.0%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 38 UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 24
OWN 23
+8
52.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Darius Rodrigue for 8 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 16
OWN 31
0
51.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
51.0%
Harrison Heim punt for 47 yds , Taz Bateman returns for no gain to the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:0851% → 66%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
49.1%
Conner Manning run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
48.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 14 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
47.0%
Kyler Neal run for 12 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
46.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kyler Neal for 10 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
46.3%
Penny Hart run for 2 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+15
46.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tamir Jones for 15 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
46.2%
Conner Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
34.5%
Devin Gentry run for 15 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:2539% → 39%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
38.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-8
38.5%
Caleb Evans sacked by Marterious Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 18
OWN 10
+13
37.8%
Caleb Evans run for 13 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 5
OWN 23
-3
38.6%
Harrison Heim punt for 56 yds , Taz Bateman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:0665% → 77%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
34.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 5 yds to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+18
34.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tamir Jones for 18 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
33.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Ari Werts for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+19
32.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Taz Bateman for 19 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
32.1%
Conner Manning pass complete to Taz Bateman for 7 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
28.9%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+46
22.9%
Brandon Wright 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.2%
Taz Bateman run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
27.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
27.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny Hart, broken up by Donald Louis Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
27.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 9 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
27.3%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
26.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 7 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-10
26.4%
Neal, Kyler rush for 2 yards to the ULM37 (Louis, Donald;Day, Chase), PENALTY GSU holding (Gilmore, Shamarious) 10 yards to the ULM49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 49
-1
26.9%
Demarcus Kirk run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
50
0
27.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
50
0
28.9%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0027% → 30%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
27.1%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 16Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
26.9%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the LaMon 16Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+13
26.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brian Williams for 13 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
27.6%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
27.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+18
26.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 18 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
29.6%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-2
30.0%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line Caleb Evans fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Marterious Allen , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:1080% → 94%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
50
+3
19.7%
Penny Hart run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
19.8%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Kyler NealSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+6
20.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Roger Carter for 6 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+3
21.3%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
19.7%
Demarcus Kirk run for 13 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
5.8%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
21.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 80 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0481% → 95%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
19.3%
Aaron Winchester run for 20 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
17.9%
Manning, Conner pass complete to Werts, Ari for 7 yards to the ULM48 (Thompson, Wesley), PENALTY GSU clipping (Johnson, Lucas) 15 yards to the GSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+40
19.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 40 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
17.6%
Conner Manning run for 8 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+22
4.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:487% → 21%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
6.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to RJ Turner for 8 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+32
7.2%
Garrett Smith run for 32 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
7.8%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
7.7%
Derrick Gore run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+4
7.6%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
7.8%
Kayin White run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.4%
Kayin White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
19 plays · 95 yds · 7:5588% → 99%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
12.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (Conner Manning) to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+3
12.3%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+19
12.4%
Kyler Neal run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Hunter Atkinson) to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
11.3%
Conner Manning run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
11.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kyler Neal for 19 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
10.4%
Kyler Neal run for 9 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-10
10.0%
Kirk, Demarcus rush for 4 yards to the ULM42 (Marbles, Kenderick), PENALTY GSU holding (Werts, Ari) 10 yards to the GSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+13
10.6%
Demarcus Kirk run for 13 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
10.3%
Demarcus Kirk run for 6 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+4
10.0%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
10.1%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Tamir JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
10.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for 11 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
9.8%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+2
9.8%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+13
10.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 13 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
9.7%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.5%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22TD
18 plays · 54 yds · 5:182% → 4%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
2.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
2.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Josh Pederson) to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+6
2.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Brian Williams for 6 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+13
2.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 13 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
2.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-4
2.5%
Garrett Smith sacked by Marterious Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+10
2.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 10 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+8
2.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Josh Pederson for 8 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
2.8%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Derrick Gore, broken up by Michael ShawSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
2.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Eastwood Thomas) to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+9
2.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Brian Williams for 9 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
2.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Bryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+15
2.5%
Smith, Garrett pass incomplete to Brown, Xavier, PENALTY GSU pass interference (Sullivan, Chandon) 15 yards to the GSU7, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.8%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
2.8%
Garrett Smith sacked by Dontae Wilson and Michael Shaw for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
2.6%
Garrett Smith sacked by Michael Shaw for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
4.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 14 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 1:324% → 8%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
4.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+19
4.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 19 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
4.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to RJ Turner for 9 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+3
5.0%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
5.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 11 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
5.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
5.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to RJ TurnerSimilar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
7.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:1495% → 96%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
5.5%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 8
50
+1
4.5%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+2
4.6%
Kyler Neal run for 2 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
4.5%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 43 yds, downed at the LaMon 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
2.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 4
-2
2.6%
Garrett Smith sacked by Marterious Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 2Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 12
OWN 2
+9
2.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Brian Williams for 9 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+17
2.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to RJ Turner for 17 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:11
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 80 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+14.8
TD · Q3 6:29
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Wright KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q3 1:19
Kayin White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com