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ARST

Arkansas State 43 at Georgia Southern 25

GASO
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2017 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:57 · Cody Grace punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Myles Campbell at the GeoSo 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior−11.4Home team on offense−30.4Score differential−16.9Garbage-time factor−6.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:13: Monteo Garrett run for 74 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +9.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:17: Warren Wand run for 25 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams PAT MISSED) — ARST win probability +11.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:03: Wesley Fields run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +13.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:20: Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 57 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK) — ARST win probability +13.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:08: Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 50 yds for a TD, (S. Werts Run For Two-point Conversion) — GASO win probability +13.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 9ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:59GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:43GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:59ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:41GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:06ARST 4th & 6 at GASO 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:21GASO 4th & 4 at ARST 9, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:48GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 44, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:53GASO 4th & 4 at ARST 40, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−1.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:57ARST 4th & 24 at ARST 26, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−3.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:52GASO 4th & 17 at ARST 19, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:51GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 32, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:16ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 15, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:23ARST 4th & 9 at GASO 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:11GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 42, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 10:10ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:13GASO Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:17ARST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:03GASO Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:20ARST Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:15ARST Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:42ARST Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:08GASO Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:37ARST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5622% → 23%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.2%
L.A. Ramsby run for no gain to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.5%
Shai Werts run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
22.8%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
23.1%
Matt Flynn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2INT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:5977% → 75%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
23.2%
Justice Hansen sacked by Ty Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+17
23.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 17 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
23.5%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
23.6%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+8
23.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
23.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-3
23.9%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+3
24.6%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Chris DeLaRosa return for 3 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0625% → 26%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
24.9%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-4
25.6%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+7
25.4%
Myles Campbell run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
25.8%
Matt Flynn punt for 33 yds, downed at the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:3974% → 73%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
25.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
25.9%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+7
26.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
26.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
26.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
26.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Christian BookerSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
27.1%
Cody Grace punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Myles Campbell at the GeoSo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:1127% → 28%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
27.0%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Personal Foul (-9 Yards) to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 19
OWN 8
+9
27.1%
Shai Werts run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-1
27.4%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+3
27.6%
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 3 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+4
27.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 39 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:2173% → 72%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
27.2%
Johnston White run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
27.2%
Johnston White run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
27.3%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
27.1%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
27.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
27.1%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-1
27.1%
Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
27.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
27.8%
Sawyer Williams 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:2028% → 33%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
28.3%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+12
28.9%
Shai Werts run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
29.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
30.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+14
30.6%
Wesley Fields run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
30.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
31.0%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
31.4%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
31.0%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
32.9%
Tyler Bass 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0169% → 75%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.1%
Justice Hansen run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
30.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
30.3%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+56
25.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 56 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 1:4526% → 36%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
26.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 16 L.A. Ramsby fumbled, recovered by GeoSoSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+9
26.3%
Wesley Fields run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
26.5%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+74
36.3%
Monteo Garrett run for 74 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:1465% → 65%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.4%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
35.0%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Kindle Vildor return for no gain to the GeoSo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 1:0637% → 38%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
37.1%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 30 Shai Werts fumbled, recovered by GeoSoSimilar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+6
37.1%
Shai Werts run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-3
37.5%
Shai Werts sacked by Caleb Caston for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 25 Shai Werts fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Hunter Moreton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
26.0%
Warren Wand run for 25 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:0728% → 28%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
28.0%
Wesley Fields run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
27.6%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+9
27.7%
L.A. Ramsby run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
28.3%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
29.3%
Monteo Garrett run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+2
29.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
28.3%
Matt Flynn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:1172% → 72%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
28.1%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
28.4%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Monquavion Brinson return for 4 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:0432% → 46%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
32.2%
Shai Werts run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+6
32.6%
Shai Werts run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
45.6%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3360% → 75%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
40.2%
Jamal Jones run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
38.7%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+57
25.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 57 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17END OF HALF
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:1429% → 30%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
29.0%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
31.2%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
30.2%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:4473% → 82%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+5
26.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
26.9%
Justice Hansen run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
25.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 29 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
24.7%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-5
25.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+29
18.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 29 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:0220% → 19%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
19.8%
Wesley Fields run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
20.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
21.4%
L.A. Ramsby run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 14
OPP 49
-1
20.3%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+15
18.9%
Shai Werts pass intercepted Michael Johnson return for 30 yds to the GeoSo 20 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:0883% → 93%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
17.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 17 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
7.5%
Warren Wand run for 12 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4012% → 12%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
11.9%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+20
11.7%
L.A. Ramsby run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
12.8%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
12.5%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+1
12.4%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
12.0%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 2:4893% → 93%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
7.4%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
6.8%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-10
6.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Ty Phillips for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 26 Justice Hansen fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Jaypee Philbert Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 24
OWN 26
0
6.8%
Cody Grace punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Myles Campbell at the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:5411% → 9%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
10.5%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
10.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+17
10.1%
Shai Werts run for 17 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+39
10.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 39 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
11.2%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-5
11.1%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 20 Shai Werts fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Wesley FieldsSimilar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 18
OPP 20
+1
9.3%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+37
8.6%
Tyler Bass 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24INT
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:4196% → 97%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
4.2%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+1
4.2%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+51
4.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 51 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
3.6%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+2
3.4%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Darrell Baker Jr. return for 2 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:447% → 5%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
7.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+13
6.7%
Shai Werts run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
6.8%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-1
5.8%
Shai Werts sacked by Christian Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-4
5.6%
Shai Werts sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 14
OWN 32
-3
4.8%
Matt Flynn punt for 50 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3597% → 97%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
3.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+2
3.2%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 13
OWN 12
0
3.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+3
3.2%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
3.0%
Cody Grace punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Myles Campbell at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
50
+50
16.7%
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 50 yds for a TD, (S. Werts Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0789% → 89%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
10.8%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+2
10.6%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
10.3%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
11.1%
Cody Grace punt for 39 yds, downed at the GeoSo 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 29DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:0612% → 9%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
11.8%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
11.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Fields for 3 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+17
10.7%
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 17 yds to the GeoSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
11.8%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+14
11.6%
Shai Werts pass complete to D'Ondre Glenn for 14 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
12.8%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to D'Ondre GlennSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
12.0%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Obe FortuneSimilar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+2
11.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
9.1%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30TD
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:1892% → 98%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
7.9%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+37
2.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 37 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 31FUMBLE
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:122% → 3%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
2.3%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+12
2.3%
Shai Werts run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
2.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Ellis Richardson for 13 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
2.4%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
2.4%
Shai Werts pass complete to Mark Michaud for 7 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
2.5%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
2.7%
Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 9 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
2.7%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+36
2.6%
Shai Werts sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSo 38 Shai Werts fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Caleb Caston , return for 0 yards , return for 36 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 32FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1399% → 99%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
1.1%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 13
OPP 21
-2
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 15
OPP 23
-7
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Raymond Johnson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 33INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:172% → 2%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
1.9%
Shai Werts run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
2.2%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
2.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Fields for 5 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+3
1.7%
Shai Werts pass intercepted Trent Ellis-Brewer return for 3 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 34END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:08
Shai Werts pass complete to Obe Fortune for 50 yds for a TD, (S. Werts Run For Two-point Conversion)
+13.7
TD · Q2 0:20
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 57 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q2 1:03
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)
+13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com