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ARST

Arkansas State 21 at SMU 44

SMU
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:38 · Jamie Sackville punt for 33 yds, downed at the ArkSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense+0.7Score differential−0.1Pregame prior+7.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:19: Courtland Sutton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +4.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:32: Ke'Mon Freeman run for 35 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +11.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:04: Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 49 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams PAT MISSED) — SMU win probability +11.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:49: Ke'Mon Freeman run for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +9.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:32: Warren Wand run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK) — ARST win probability +9.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:46SMU 4th & 2 at ARST 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:38ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:38SMU 4th & 5 at ARST 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:19ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:08SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:13SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:53ARST 4th & 13 at SMU 37, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:26ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 29, down 10
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:25SMU 4th & 7 at ARST 24, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−5.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:28SMU 4th & 1 at ARST 12, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−2.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−8.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:43ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 16, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:15SMU 4th & 17 at ARST 42, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:19ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 44, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:13SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 7, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:44ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 43, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:05SMU 4th & 28 at ARST 45, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:28ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:37SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:09ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:19SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:32SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:04SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:49SMU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:32ARST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:52SMU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.0%
Justice Hansen run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
59.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
59.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren Wand, broken up by Jordan WyattSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+6
59.0%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
59.0%
Cody Grace punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2FG
17 plays · 86 yds · 4:2759% → 60%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
59.1%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+16
59.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 16 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
59.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 12 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
59.1%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 35 Xavier Jones fumbled, forced by Kyle Wilson,Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
59.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
50
+7
59.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 7 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
59.4%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
59.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
59.3%
Ben Hicks run for no gain to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
59.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
59.4%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
59.4%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+11
59.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 5 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
59.4%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
59.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
59.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q1 8:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
60.0%
Josh Williams 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
60.0%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+3
60.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 3 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
60.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
60.4%
Cody Grace punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
60.0%
Xavier Jones run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
60.6%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
60.6%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
60.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by Nehemiah WagnerSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
60.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 33 yds, downed at the ArkSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 2:3540% → 44%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
60.4%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
60.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 5 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
60.6%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
60.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 12 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
60.1%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
60.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 10 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
59.6%
Chris Murray sacked by Rodney Clemons for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 16
OWN 38
0
60.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Chris Murray) to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+30
60.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 30 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
55.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 32 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5157% → 60%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.9%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
57.7%
Braeden West run for 12 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
58.0%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
58.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for no gain to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+55
60.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 55 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2840% → 46%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.4%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
60.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 11 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
59.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 29 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
58.5%
Justice Hansen run for 11 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
54.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 19 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:4156% → 63%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
56.3%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+13
56.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 13 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
57.5%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+13
57.7%
Xavier Jones run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
58.0%
Xavier Jones run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
58.6%
Xavier Jones run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
58.6%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
57.9%
Trey Quinn run for no gain to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
56.4%
WILLIAMS, Josh field goal attempt from 21 GOOD, clock 11:00, PENALTY A-ST roughing the kicker (Wagner, Nehemia) 2 yards to the A-ST2, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.1%
Courtland Sutton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.0%
Justice Hansen run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
59.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Eric SuttonSimilar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
61.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
62.0%
Cody Grace punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
61.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-10
61.8%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to WEST, Braeden, PENALTY SMU holding (NATOUR, Nick) 10 yards to the SMU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
60.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
59.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by Ja'Von Rolland-JonesSimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
59.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 72 yds · 0:0039% → 41%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.7%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+27
61.0%
Warren Wand run for 27 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
58.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Christian BookerSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
58.7%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+36
58.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 36 yds Blake Mack fumbled, forced by Jordan Wyatt, recovered by SMU Kyran MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
62.7%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
62.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by William Bradley-KingSimilar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
61.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 34 , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 34 Blaise Taylor fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:2139% → 35%
Q2 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+29
61.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 29 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
59.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Jordan WyattSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
61.9%
Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
59.1%
Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
60.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jamal JonesSimilar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 8
OPP 32
-5
63.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 13
OPP 37
-1
65.0%
Justice Hansen sacked by Dimarya Mixon for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:1265% → 76%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
64.7%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-11
65.7%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 48 SMU Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+5
63.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+27
64.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 27 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
75.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 35 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
74.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Warren Wand for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
73.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Christian Booker, broken up by Mason GentrySimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
74.3%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
75.1%
Cody Grace punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:2775% → 86%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
74.6%
Ben Hicks sacked by Clifford Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 13Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 20
OWN 8
+16
74.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 16 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+7
74.3%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
74.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 20 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
85.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 49 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5319% → 20%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
81.4%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+3
81.5%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-5
80.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:2483% → 84%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
82.7%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
83.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
83.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 11 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
83.3%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-1
83.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+15
82.7%
HICKS, Ben pass intercepted by Edmonds, BJ at the SMU2, Edmonds, BJ return to the SMU5 (SUTTON, C.), PENALTY A-ST pass interference (Gibson, J.) 15 yards to the A-ST27, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
83.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
83.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
82.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
83.9%
Josh Williams 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
82.8%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+11
82.9%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McInnis for 11 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
81.9%
Logan Bonner pass intercepted Jordan Wyatt return for 25 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:3987% → 96%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
86.5%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+11
86.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 11 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
86.6%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
86.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Raymond Epps, broken up by Trent Ellis-BrewerSimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-10
86.1%
HICKS, Ben pass complete to PROCHE, James for 8 yards to the A-ST9 (Wagner, Nehemia), PENALTY SMU holding (NATOUR, Nick) 10 yards to the A-ST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+15
85.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 15 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
85.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
86.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
95.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
95.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
95.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Blake Mack, broken up by Justin LawlerSimilar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
95.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
95.5%
Cody Grace punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
95.7%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
95.8%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
95.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
95.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
95.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
95.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 12
OPP 37
-5
95.3%
SMU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
95.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 24 yds, downed at the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
96.8%
Justice Hansen run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+3
96.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
96.7%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar (WYATT, Jordan), PENALTY A-ST holding (Brown, Marvis) 10 yards to the A-ST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+7
96.8%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+8
96.8%
Jamal Jones run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+11
96.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 11 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
96.6%
Justice Hansen sacked by Pono Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+6
96.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 6 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 11
OWN 44
0
96.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
96.9%
Cody Grace punt for 53 yds, downed at the SMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4798% → 99%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
98.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
98.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+2
98.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 6
OWN 7
+17
98.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 50 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 17 yds to the SMU 24 SMU Penalty, H0 (-10 Yards) to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:042% → 11%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
97.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 8 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+5
97.8%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
97.8%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 12 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.6%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:3295% → 99%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
95.1%
Xavier Jones run for 40 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
95.5%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+11
95.5%
Braeden West run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
95.5%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
99.2%
Ben Hicks run for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
98.6%
Logan Bonner run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+9
98.5%
Jefferie Gibson run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
98.5%
Warren Wand run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+7
98.5%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
98.5%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
98.6%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jamal Jones for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 10
OWN 48
-5
98.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Jaypee Philbert Jr.) to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
98.7%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Christian Booker, broken up by Rodney ClemonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
99.4%
D.J. Gillins run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+7
99.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
99.4%
FREEMAN, Ke'Mon rush for loss of 1 yard to the A-ST28 (Emory, Dajon), PENALTY SMU holding (HOPKINS, Will) 10 yards to the A-ST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 20
OPP 37
-1
99.4%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 21
OPP 38
+4
99.3%
D.J. Gillins run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 17
OPP 34
-6
99.3%
Braeden West run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 23
OPP 40
-5
99.2%
SMU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 28
OPP 45
+21
98.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 9 SMU Penalty, personal foul (Elijah McQueen) to the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.4%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
99.4%
Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+5
99.4%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.4%
Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
99.4%
Logan Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:32
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 35 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q2 1:04
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 49 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams PAT MISSED)
+11
TD · Q4 12:32
Warren Wand run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sawyer Williams KICK)
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com