Try the model
HAW

Hawai'i 38 at Massachusetts 35

MASS
2017 · Week 1 · Aug 26, 2017 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreHAW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 3 yds to the UMass 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:02: Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK) — MASS win probability +12.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:09: Ryan Tuiasoa run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK) — HAW win probability +14.7 pts (now 32%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:34: Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK) — HAW win probability +23.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:41: Marquis Young run for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK) — MASS win probability +25.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:48: Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK) — HAW win probability +66.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 9 of 9HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:05HAW 4th & 4 at MASS 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:49MASS 4th & 16 at MASS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00HAW 4th & 25 at MASS 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:19MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:36HAW 4th & 1 at MASS 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−1.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−6.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:29MASS 4th & 16 at MASS 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:12HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:33MASS 4th & 4 at HAW 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−5.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:09MASS 4th & 18 at MASS 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−5.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00HAW 4th & 4 at MASS 47, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:41MASS 4th & 1 at HAW 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−5.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−20.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:41HAW 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.9%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:41HAW 4th & 2 at MASS 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.5%−3.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:23HAW 4th & 8 at MASS 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−2.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−10.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:07MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−3.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:58MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−3.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:23MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%−5.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5HAW made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:51HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:00MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:57HAW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:02MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:12MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:35MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:09HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:34HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:41MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.7
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:48HAW Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HAWDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:5541% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
58.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the Hawa 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+20
58.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 20 yds to the Hawa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
58.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+11
58.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 11 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
58.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 6 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
58.9%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
58.9%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to John UrsuaSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 4
OPP 37
-7
58.9%
Dru Brown sacked by Colbert Calhoun and Jesse Monteiro for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
59.4%
Marquis Young run for 8 yds to the Hawa 48Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+1
59.5%
Andrew Ford pass intercepted Solomon Matautia return for 1 yd to the Hawa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:5341% → 44%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
58.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 1 yd to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+17
58.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 17 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
58.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 5 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
58.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
58.4%
BROWN, Dru pass complete to EWALIKO, Keelan for 25 yards to the UMASS0, clock 09:35, PENALTY UH illegal helmet contact 15 yards to the UMASS40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 25
OPP 40
0
58.7%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Keelan Ewaliko, broken up by Lee MosesSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 25
OPP 40
+11
58.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 11 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+29
56.1%
Dru Brown run for 29 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:5157% → 61%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
56.8%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 25Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+9
56.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 9 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
56.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
56.9%
Marquis Young run for 17 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
57.5%
Andrew Ford run for 3 yds to the Hawa 46Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
57.5%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+11
57.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 11 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+28
57.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 28 yds to the Hawa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
60.6%
Andy Isabella run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.8%
Dru Brown pass intercepted Isaiah Rodgers return for no gain to the UMass 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
59.9%
DINGLE, Brennon rush for loss of 5 yards to the UMASS35 (SCOTT, Paul), PENALTY UMASS holding (HERRING, Jacoby) 10 yards to the UMASS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 20
OWN 30
0
59.3%
Bilal Ally run for no gain to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+9
59.2%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 9 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-5
59.1%
Andrew Ford sacked by Jahlani Tavai for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 34Similar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
58.7%
Logan Laurent punt for 34 yds, downed at the Hawa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7PUNT
16 plays · 28 yds · 3:3841% → 41%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
58.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 30Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+11
59.0%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 11 yds to the Hawa 41Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+8
58.1%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 8 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
57.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 9
50
+5
57.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 5 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+7
57.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 7 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
57.8%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
57.8%
Dru Brown run for 13 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
56.5%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Metuisela 'Unga) to the UMass 30Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+10
56.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 10 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-5
56.5%
HAWAII Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
56.5%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 6 yds to the UMass 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-15
57.0%
SAINT JUSTE, Diocemy rush for 3 yards to the UMASS16, PENALTY UH illegal helmet contact (WA'A, John) 15 yards to the UMASS34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 34
-15
58.1%
HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (Fred Ulu-Perry) to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 34
OPP 49
+9
58.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 9 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 25
OPP 40
0
58.9%
Stan Gaudion punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
59.8%
Andrew Ford sacked by Jeremiah Pritchard for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 4Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 15
OWN 4
+4
59.7%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the UMass 8Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+2
59.0%
Andrew Ford run for 2 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
58.7%
Logan Laurent punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 14 yds · 4:0844% → 46%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
55.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 20 yds to the UMass 10 HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (Chris Posa) to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
55.7%
SAINT JUSTE, Diocemy rush for 8 yards to the UMASS17 (RODGERS, Isaiah), PENALTY UH holding 10 yards to the UMASS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
56.3%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for no gain to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+6
56.7%
Dru Brown run for 6 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+4
57.7%
Dru Brown sacked by Da'Sean Downey and Ali Ali-Musa for a loss of 11 yards to the UMass 40 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Jr. Leon Flanagan) to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
55.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
55.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
56.4%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
54.5%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for no gain to the UMass 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
59.0%
Ross Comis run for 5 yds to the UMass 21Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
59.2%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+10
57.9%
Ross Comis run for 10 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
59.4%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
59.2%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 32Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+23
58.1%
Ross Comis pass complete to Adam Breneman for 23 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
61.7%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 46Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-15
61.2%
COMIS, Ross pass complete to BURCH, Cycoby for 2 yards to the UH44 (KOLOAMATANGI, Meffy), PENALTY UMASS illegal block (DUMAIS, Derek) 15 yards to the UMASS39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 26
OWN 39
0
59.5%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 26
OWN 39
+10
58.6%
Marquis Young run for 10 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
58.0%
Logan Laurent punt for 34 yds , John Ursua returns for no gain to the Hawa 17 John Ursua fumbled, recovered by Hawa John UrsuaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 11TD
2 plays · 83 yds · 0:4245% → 56%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
55.3%
Dru Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Hawa 15Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+85
43.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 85 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 1:5545% → 63%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
45.0%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 38Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
45.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 7 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
47.2%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 8 yds to the Hawa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
48.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 5 yds to the Hawa 42Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
47.8%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the Hawa 40Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+33
47.5%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Sadiq Palmer for 33 yds to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
49.5%
Brennon Dingle run for 2 yds to the Hawa 5Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
50.8%
FORD, Andrew pass incomplete to HERRING, Jacoby, PENALTY UH holding (LEWIS, Daniel) 3 yards to the UH2, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.0%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
52.0%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:4859% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
58.9%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+10
59.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 10 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+41
59.4%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 41 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
62.9%
Andrew Ford sacked by Jahlani Tavai for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+1
61.5%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the Hawa 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+17
59.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 17 yds to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
62.9%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Marquis YoungSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+10
62.9%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 10 yds to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.9%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the Hawa 1Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.7%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for no gain to the Hawa 24Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
70.8%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Metuisela 'UngaSimilar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+4
71.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 4 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
72.3%
Stan Gaudion punt for 37 yds, downed at the UMass 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:5874% → 89%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
74.3%
Bilal Ally run for 3 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
75.7%
Bilal Ally run for 2 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+26
74.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 26 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
76.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 9 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-3
76.8%
Andrew Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Hawa 28Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
75.7%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy Isabella, broken up by Manu Hudson-RasmussenSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+11
74.2%
Andrew Ford run for 11 yds to the Hawa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
76.8%
Cycoby Burch run for 4 yds to the Hawa 13Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+8
76.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 8 yds to the Hawa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.8%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q3 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
76.8%
Bilal Ally run for 2 yds to the Hawa 3Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.7%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Malik Lee for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:2615% → 32%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+31
85.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 31 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
84.0%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 14 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
82.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 12 yds to the UMass 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
82.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the UMass 11Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
82.6%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Metuisela 'Unga, broken up by Mario PattonSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+9
83.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 9 yds to the UMass 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
82.6%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Ammon BarkerSimilar
Q3 2:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.9%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0079% → 76%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
78.8%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-10
78.9%
FORD, Andrew pass complete to PALMER, Sadiq for 3 yards to the UMASS27 (HENDERSON, Trayvon), PENALTY UMASS holding (THOMAS-ISHMAN SR., R) 10 yards to the UMASS14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 16
OWN 14
0
78.4%
Andrew Ford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 16
OWN 14
-2
77.3%
Andrew Ford sacked by Meffy Koloamatangi for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 12Similar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
76.3%
Logan Laurent punt for 41 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:1027% → 25%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
73.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+3
72.5%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 3 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
72.9%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to John Ursua, broken up by Jr. Leon FlanaganSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
74.7%
Stan Gaudion punt for 36 yds , Jessie Britt returns for no gain to the UMass 15 Jessie Britt fumbled, recovered by Hawa Ryan TuiasoaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:4730% → 53%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
70.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 7 yds to the UMass 8Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
46.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:5363% → 85%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
63.1%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Adam Breneman for 16 yds to the Hawa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
64.4%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-5
64.4%
Andrew Ford run for a loss of 5 yards to the Hawa 35 Andrew Ford fumbled, recovered by UMass Andrew FordSimilar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 15
OPP 35
+14
59.3%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 14 yds to the Hawa 21 HAWAII Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+21
84.5%
Marquis Young run for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 22FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 6:1821% → 32%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
78.6%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 4 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
77.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 1
50
0
76.8%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 1
50
+5
78.4%
Ryan Tuiasoa run for 5 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
76.5%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Metuisela 'UngaSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
76.7%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 9 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-3
76.2%
Dru Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 37 Dru Brown fumbled, recovered by Hawa Dru BrownSimilar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+23
78.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 23 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
74.1%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 2 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-8
74.1%
Dru Brown sacked by Bryton Barr for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 20Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+8
78.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dylan Collie for 8 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
68.0%
Ryan Meskell 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 2:2580% → 86%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
79.6%
Bilal Ally run for 6 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+4
80.5%
Bilal Ally run for 4 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
80.8%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-1
80.4%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 36Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-1
85.9%
Andrew Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 35Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
84.9%
Logan Laurent punt for 38 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 27Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
85.7%
Logan Laurent punt for 38 yds, fair catch by John Ursua at the Hawa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 24TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:0417% → 94%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
83.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 7 yds to the Hawa 34Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+7
81.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 7 yds to the Hawa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
81.7%
Dru Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
82.3%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Keelan Ewaliko, broken up by Jackson PorterSimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+52
83.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 52 yds to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 0
OPP 7
-5
75.6%
HAWAII Penalty, false start (Dejon Allen) to the UMass 12Similar
Q4 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
77.2%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 5 yds to the UMass 7Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.1%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for no gain to the UMass 7Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
5.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:4323% → 15%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
22.6%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
22.1%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Sadiq PalmerSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+6
20.2%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Andy Isabella for 6 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+6
17.4%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
20.1%
Andrew Ford pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
14.8%
Andrew Ford pass complete to Marquis Young for 3 yds to the UMass 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:48
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)
-66
TD · Q4 11:41
Marquis Young run for 21 yds for a TD, (Michael Schreiner KICK)
+25.2
TD · Q4 13:34
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)
-23.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com