2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:59 · Arthur Hart punt for 45 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore differential
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:06: Ray Lawry run for 10 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST down — ODU win probability +6.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:12: Steven Williams pass complete to Marques Little for 15 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST down — ODU win probability +6.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:45: Isaiah Harper run for 7 yds to the ODU 49 — ODU win probability +9.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 8:16: Hasaan Klugh run for no gain to the Charl 29 — CLT win probability +8.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:27: Ray Lawry run for 13 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST down — ODU win probability +9.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snapGo for it24.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.4%average punt
- Q1 4:56ODU 4th & 8 at CLT 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snapGo for it73.3%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call73.4%70% to makePunt72.3%−1.2average punt
- Q1 4:56CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 34, down 3Close callPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it25.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 15:00ODU 4th & 2 at CLT 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.4%57% to convertField goal73.0%−0.460% to makePunt71.2%−2.2average punt
- Q2 13:32CLT 4th & 2 at ODU 42, down 3Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snapGo for it27.8%57% to convertField goal26.8%−1.030% to makePuntTheir call27.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 11:28ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 12, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snapGo for it70.4%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.3%average punt
- Q2 9:12CLT 4th & 10 at ODU 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it27.2%−0.430% to convertField goal26.8%−0.825% to makePuntTheir call27.6%average punt
- Q2 8:22ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 30, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snapGo for it70.1%−0.631% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.7%average punt
- Q2 6:31CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snapGo for it27.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.8%average punt
- Q2 2:26ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 42, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snapGo for it68.9%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.5%average punt
- Q2 0:00CLT 4th & 1 at ODU 31, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snapGo for it33.7%71% to convertField goalTheir call30.8%−2.854% to makePunt30.1%−3.6average punt
- Q3 14:54ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 40, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt69.2%−2.1average punt
- Q3 14:54ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 47, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snapGo for it70.6%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.7%average punt
- Q3 5:03ODU 4th & 2 at CLT 14, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snapGo for it71.9%56% to convertField goalTheir call70.9%−1.084% to makePunt62.7%−9.2average punt
- Q3 4:59CLT 4th & 2 at ODU 45, down 6Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it28.3%57% to convertField goal23.6%−4.725% to makePuntTheir call25.9%−2.4average punt
- Q4 15:00ODU 4th & 11 at CLT 38, up 6Close callPunted · 79.3% before the snapGo for it79.8%−0.227% to convertField goal80.0%38% to makePuntTheir call79.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:26CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 14, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snapGo for it20.2%−3.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.4%average punt
- Q4 8:16ODU 4th & 4 at CLT 29, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snapGo for it86.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call85.1%−1.158% to makePunt78.2%−8.0average punt
- Q4 8:16CLT 4th & 11 at ODU 48, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it18.5%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.8%average punt
- Q4 0:53ODU 4th & 1 at CLT 34, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.9%71% to convertField goal94.4%−0.547% to makePuntTheir call93.6%−1.3average punt
- Q4 0:45CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 29, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.5%−9.1average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.6%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Justin Noye and Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
74.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Benny LeMay for 4 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+3
74.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 51 yds , Darrell Brown returns for 3 yds to the ODU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2FG15 plays · 55 yds · 8:0574% → 73%
Q1 13:01
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+5
74.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 5 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
74.2%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 6 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
74.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 4 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+5
74.4%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 5 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-6
74.4%
Blake LaRussa sacked by Ben DeLuca and Tyriq Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the Charl 28Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+5
74.3%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 5 yds to the Charl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 4:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
73.6%
Arthur Hart punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 24 , Darrell Brown returns for 1 yd to the ODU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4DOWNS12 plays · 49 yds · 3:3273% → 73%
Q1 3:32
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+14
73.4%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 14 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
73.9%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 4 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+7
73.7%
Steven Williams pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 7 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+1
72.5%
Steven Williams pass complete to Kevin Todd for 1 yd to the Charl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
ODUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-7
71.3%
Steven Williams run for no gain to the ODU 14 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive holding (Melvin Vaughn) to the ODU 7Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 14
OWN 8
+4
70.5%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 4 yds to the ODU 12Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+3
70.3%
Bailey Cate punt for 36 yds , Nate Mullen returns for 3 yds to the ODU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 9:12
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
71.4%
Arthur Hart punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Darrell Brown at the ODU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
71.0%
Steven Williams pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 19 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+5
69.7%
Bailey Cate punt for 35 yds , Nate Mullen returns for 5 yds to the Charl 40 Nate Mullen fumbled, recovered by Charl Nate MullenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
69.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 7 yds to the Charl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 2:4771% → 71%
Q2 5:13
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+17
70.7%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 17 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+5
71.7%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 5 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-1
71.2%
Steven Williams sacked by Anthony Butler for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11MISSED FG13 plays · 43 yds · 2:1329% → 29%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
68.7%
KLUGH, Hasaan pass complete to BOSTICK, Trent for no gain to the CHA49, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CHA face mask (TYLER, R.J.) 15 yards to the CHA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
67.0%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Chris Montgomery for 3 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
70.2%
Steven Williams pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 8 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
72.0%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Jeremy Cox, broken up by Anthony ButlerSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
69.9%
Bailey Cate punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nate Mullen at the Charl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13FUMBLE5 plays · 39 yds · 0:0031% → 33%
Q3 10:18
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+9
69.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Trent Bostick for 9 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
67.3%
Aaron McAllister run for 1 yd to the Charl 45 Aaron McAllister fumbled, forced by Oshane Ximines, recovered by ODU Marvin Branch , return for 6 yds to the Charl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14FG7 plays · 31 yds · 3:0374% → 77%
Q3 8:06
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+11
74.6%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 11 yds to the Charl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
73.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 7 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
72.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Joe Joe HeadenSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+9
73.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 9 yds to the ODU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 42 yds · 2:1279% → 79%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
78.5%
Steven Williams pass complete to Marques Little for 15 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
78.9%
Steven Williams sacked by Alex Highsmith for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+16
78.3%
Steven Williams pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 16 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+9
81.5%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 9 yds to the Charl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
80.8%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Melvin Vaughn, broken up by Tyler FainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
ODUDrive 18MISSED FG6 plays · 29 yds · 2:2986% → 86%
Q4 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+16
86.5%
Steven Williams pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 16 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
ODUDrive 20PUNT15 plays · 55 yds · 4:3488% → 96%
Q4 3:19
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+14
90.6%
CATE, Bailey punt 41 yards to the CHA27, fair catch by MULLEN, Nate, PENALTY CHA personal foul 14 yards to the ODU46, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 6
50
+7
92.4%
Steven Williams pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 7 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.5%
Brooks Barden pass incomplete to Workpeh Kofa, broken up by Sean CarterSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
90.7%
Brooks Barden pass incomplete to Trent Bostick, broken up by Jordan YoungSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
91.3%
Brooks Barden pass complete to Trent Bostick for 9 yds to the Charl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:45
Isaiah Harper run for 7 yds to the ODU 49
+9.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:27
Ray Lawry run for 13 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST down
+9.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:16
Hasaan Klugh run for no gain to the Charl 29
-8.9