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ODU

Old Dominion 38 at North Texas 45

UNT
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreODU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:26 · Blake Patterson punt for 35 yds, downed at the ODU 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 186Pregame prior+2.1Home team on offense+20.1Garbage-time factor+14.1Score differential+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:39: Nic Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +5.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:27: Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK) — ODU win probability +11.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:37: Steven Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Steven Williams pass to Melvin Vaughn for Two-Point Conversion) — ODU win probability +22.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:45: Trevor Moore 23 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +8.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:27: Nic Smith run for 20 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +22.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ODU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:05UNT 4th & 1 at ODU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:49ODU 4th & 8 at UNT 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:28ODU 4th & 10 at UNT 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:57ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 48, down 11
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:31ODU 4th & 5 at UNT 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:31UNT 4th & 18 at UNT 17, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−1.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:39ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 29, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:50UNT 4th & 10 at ODU 23, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:13ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 41, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:27ODU 4th & 1 at UNT 1, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−7.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:27UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 34, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:27UNT 4th & 1 at ODU 35, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−3.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UNT 4th & 2 at ODU 46, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−5.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:45UNT 4th & 5 at ODU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−2.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−17.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:26ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.8%−6.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:27ODU 4th & 1 at UNT 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−5.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−5.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:26UNT 4th & 11 at UNT 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:31ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:05UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:52ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:49UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:32UNT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:41ODU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:39UNT Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:27ODU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:37ODU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    44.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:27UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 4:5577% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
77.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+17
77.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 17 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
77.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 15 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
77.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 6 yds to the ODU 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+1
77.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd to the ODU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+18
77.2%
Evan Johnson run for 18 yds to the ODU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
77.2%
Mason Fine run for no gain to the ODU 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
77.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 7 yds to the ODU 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+6
77.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 6 yds to the ODU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
77.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
77.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 6 yds to the ODU 2Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd to the ODU 1Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:0376% → 78%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
76.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 15 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
76.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 8 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+11
76.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 11 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
77.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 34 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
77.3%
Isaiah Harper run for 22 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
76.9%
Ray Lawry run for no gain to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
77.0%
Steven Williams pass complete to Kevin Todd for 7 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-5
76.9%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
77.4%
Bailey Cate punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
77.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 5 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
77.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 9 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
77.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
77.9%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Joe Joe Headen return for no gain to the ODU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:2223% → 25%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
77.1%
Ray Lawry run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 39Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+33
77.3%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 33 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
76.3%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-3
76.3%
Ray Lawry run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
76.8%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Kevin ToddSimilar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
75.0%
Nick Rice 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5675% → 80%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.2%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
75.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 7 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
75.3%
Evan Johnson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
75.3%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+18
75.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 18 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
76.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 20 yds to the ODU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
76.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 10 yds to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
76.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 7 yds to the ODU 6Similar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
79.6%
Evan Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8PUNT TD
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3521% → 15%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
78.8%
Jeremy Cox run for 9 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+10
78.2%
Jeremy Cox run for 10 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
78.2%
Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd to the ODU 44Similar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
78.2%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Melvin VaughnSimilar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+4
78.5%
Ray Lawry run for 4 yds to the ODU 48Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+40
85.0%
Bailey Cate punt blocked by Taylor Robinson blocked by Taylor Robinson Evan Johnson return for 40 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
80.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 16 Jeffery Wilson fumbled, forced by Denzel Williams, recovered by ODU Sean Carter , return for 22 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5223% → 22%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
77.4%
Steven Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
77.4%
Steven Williams run for 5 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
78.0%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Lawrence HolleySimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
77.9%
Nick Rice 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
78.1%
Mason Fine sacked by Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 13 yards to the NoTex 12Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+5
77.9%
Mason Fine run for 5 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
77.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Joe Joe HeadenSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+53
76.8%
Blake Patterson punt for 68 yds, downed at the NORTHTEXAS 15 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (LaDarius Hamilton) to the ODU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
78.8%
Steven Williams pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 4 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+1
78.5%
Steven Williams pass intercepted Andy Flusche return for 1 yd to the ODU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:0580% → 86%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
80.2%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the ODU 29Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+10
80.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 10 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
80.2%
Evan Johnson run for 4 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
80.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+10
79.7%
Nic Smith run for 10 yds to the ODU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
80.2%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the ODU 1Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.8%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
83.8%
Steven Williams run for 5 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-4
83.6%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 29Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
84.3%
Steven Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
84.5%
Bailey Cate puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16MISSED FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2187% → 86%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
86.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 15 yds to the ODU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
86.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
86.9%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the ODU 23Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
86.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
86.4%
Trevor Moore 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17FG
20 plays · 60 yds · 2:5014% → 17%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
85.8%
Steven Williams pass complete to Ray Lawry for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 21Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+6
86.0%
Ray Lawry run for 6 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+7
85.9%
Steven Williams run for 7 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
85.4%
Jeremy Cox run for 4 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
85.2%
Steven Williams run for 3 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
84.6%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Isaiah HarperSimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+6
85.0%
Jeremy Cox run for 6 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
84.2%
Steven Williams pass complete to Kevin Todd for 10 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
83.4%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 4 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
84.3%
Steven Williams run for 4 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+7
84.4%
Ray Lawry run for 7 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
83.6%
Steven Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
83.8%
Steven Williams pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 8 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
84.4%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
83.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
83.6%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Kevin ToddSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+34
83.3%
Nick Rice 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:3317% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
83.4%
Jeremy Cox run for no gain to the ODU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
83.5%
Jeremy Cox run for 6 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+8
83.2%
Steven Williams pass complete to Kevin Todd for 8 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+35
82.7%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 35 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
81.4%
Jeremy Cox run for 11 yds to the NoTex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
81.4%
Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd to the NoTex 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.4%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Melvin VaughnSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
82.3%
Steven Williams run for 4 yds to the NoTex 1Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.3%
Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
75.5%
Nic Smith run for 5 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
76.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-15
75.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Rico Bussey Jr.) to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+14
74.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 14 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
74.3%
Blake Patterson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Harper at the ODU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0027% → 30%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
72.8%
Steven Williams pass complete to Gemonta Jackson for 10 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
71.5%
Jeremy Cox run for 2 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+10
71.3%
Steven Williams run for 10 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
69.9%
Steven Williams pass intercepted Eric Jenkins return for no gain to the NoTex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
75.0%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 9Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
74.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 13
OWN 9
+23
73.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 23 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
75.6%
Nic Smith run for 16 yds to the NoTex 48 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Murray) to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 9
OWN 33
+8
75.8%
Evan Johnson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+15
77.3%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, roughing passer (Marvin Branch) to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
77.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 3 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
77.8%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the ODU 40Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+5
77.3%
Mason Fine run for 5 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
76.2%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the ODU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:5328% → 55%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
71.9%
Steven Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 34Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
72.6%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Jeremy Cox, broken up by Brandon GarnerSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+27
73.9%
Steven Williams pass complete to Gemonta Jackson for 27 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
68.8%
Jeremy Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+7
69.0%
Steven Williams run for 7 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-7
68.6%
Jeremy Cox run for 3 yds to the NoTex 30 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive holding (Tony Barnett) to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+16
71.1%
Steven Williams pass complete to Kevin Todd for 16 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
67.2%
Jeremy Cox run for 5 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+8
67.2%
Jeremy Cox run for 8 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
67.2%
Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd to the NoTex 10Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
45.1%
Steven Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Steven Williams pass to Melvin Vaughn for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:3754% → 54%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
53.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
57.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 7 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
58.7%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the ODU 46Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
57.9%
Mason Fine run for no gain to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
54.4%
Blake Patterson punt for 43 yds, downed at the ODU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
50.3%
Jeremy Cox run for 4 yds to the ODU 7Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+6
50.7%
Steven Williams pass complete to Jeremy Cox for 6 yds to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
49.8%
Jeremy Cox run for 15 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
49.0%
Ray Lawry run for 1 yd to the ODU 29Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-6
49.2%
Steven Williams sacked by Tillman Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 23 Steven Williams fumbled, recovered by NoTex LaDarius Hamilton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4257% → 64%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
57.4%
Nic Smith run for 5 yds to the ODU 18Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+7
57.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 7 yds to the ODU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
57.4%
Mason Fine run for 5 yds to the ODU 6Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
57.4%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the ODU 6Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
54.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
63.5%
Trevor Moore 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:1943% → 45%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
56.8%
Steven Williams pass complete to Isaiah Harper for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 23Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+16
57.3%
Jeremy Cox run for 16 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
54.0%
Jeremy Cox run for 4 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
52.6%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Melvin Vaughn, broken up by Dee BaulkmanSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
54.1%
Steven Williams run for 5 yds to the ODU 48Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
54.8%
Jeremy Cox run for no gain to the ODU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:5467% → 92%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
67.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 18 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
69.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 10 yds to the ODU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
69.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Nic SmithSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
91.6%
Nic Smith run for 20 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.5%
Jeremy Cox run for 2 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
84.7%
Steven Williams pass complete to Kevin Todd for 4 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
84.5%
Steven Williams pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 6 yds to the ODU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
83.7%
Steven Williams pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 5 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+1
83.0%
Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
83.5%
Steven Williams pass complete to Gemonta Jackson for 3 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
84.7%
Steven Williams pass incomplete to Melvin Vaughn, broken up by Dee BaulkmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 92%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
93.7%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
93.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
93.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
92.3%
Blake Patterson punt for 35 yds, downed at the ODU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 30DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
89.7%
Steven Williams run for 2 yds to the ODU 25Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Steven Williams run for no gain to the ODU 25Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+7
90.3%
Steven Williams pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 7 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
89.3%
Jeremy Cox run for no gain to the ODU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:4696% → 97%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.7%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the ODU 32Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
95.6%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+9
96.4%
Mason Fine run for 9 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:37
Steven Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Steven Williams pass to Melvin Vaughn for Two-Point Conversion)
-22.1
TD · Q4 7:27
Nic Smith run for 20 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
+22.1
TD · Q3 11:27
Jeremy Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Rice KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com