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UNC

North Carolina 21 at NC State 33

NCSU
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:24 · Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior+35.8Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:46: Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 24 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +6.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:27: Ryan Finley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NCSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: One-score game).
  3. TD · Q3 0:40: Nyheim Hines run for 54 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +17.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:01: Nyheim Hines run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ryan Finley pass to Jakobi Meyers for Two-Point Conversion) — NCSU win probability +21.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:16: Jordan Cunningham 2 Yd pass from Nathan Elliott (Freeman Jones Kick) — UNC win probability +15.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:24NCSU 4th & 1 at UNC 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:38UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:06NCSU 4th & 3 at UNC 43, up 6
    Close callPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    82.3%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NCSU 4th & 5 at UNC 24, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    78.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:13UNC 4th & 2 at NCSU 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.9%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:46NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:07UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 42, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 31, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:01UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 41, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−2.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:04NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 42, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:05UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 21, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−3.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:07UNC 4th & 18 at UNC 32, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−8.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:45NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:09UNC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:46UNC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:27NCSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:40NCSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:01NCSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:16UNC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:33NCSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
86.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 5 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
86.6%
Nathan Elliott run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
86.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+30
86.6%
Hunter Lent punt for 44 yds , Gavin Locklear returns for 30 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:3986% → 86%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
86.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-1
86.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+14
86.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 14 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
86.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 8 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+7
86.2%
Ryan Finley run for 7 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-7
86.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCaro 12 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 17
OPP 22
+8
86.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 8 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+1
86.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 1 yd to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+7
86.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 7 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+3
86.2%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.9%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
85.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 12Similar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+8
85.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Austin Proehl for 8 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
85.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
85.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
85.6%
Hunter Lent punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
85.4%
Nyheim Hines run for 8 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
85.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 5 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
85.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
50
0
85.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
50
+7
85.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 7 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
85.6%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
85.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 36 yds, fair catch by M.J. Stewart at the NCaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 2:1515% → 19%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
84.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 2 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 8
OWN 9
-1
84.9%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 8Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+15
85.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Mike Stevens) to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
84.8%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
84.5%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
84.2%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
80.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 51 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:0482% → 81%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+35
81.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 35 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
50
+6
82.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-2
82.7%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+7
82.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (M.J. Stewart) to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
82.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive holding (K.J. Sails) to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
83.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+2
82.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
81.9%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 24
0
81.3%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2720% → 28%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
80.0%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+39
80.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 39 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
79.0%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
78.6%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
79.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Brandon Fritts, broken up by Mike StevensSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+7
79.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Austin Proehl for 7 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
78.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
72.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 24 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
73.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 14 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
74.2%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 13
OWN 36
-4
73.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 17
OWN 32
+11
73.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 11 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+10
73.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSTATE 37 NC STATE Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · -15 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
69.6%
Dazz Newsome run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
69.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 5 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
69.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 5 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
69.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Mike StevensSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-16
69.4%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Darian Roseboro for a loss of 16 yards to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 26
OWN 42
0
71.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 26
OWN 42
0
71.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 26
OWN 42
-5
71.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Hunter Crafford) to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 31
OWN 37
-5
71.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Allen Artis) to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 36
OWN 32
0
72.1%
Hunter Lent punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:2268% → 76%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
67.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 20 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
69.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 8 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
69.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
70.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+21
70.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 21 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
70.6%
Ryan Finley run for 4 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
70.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.2%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 1:1127% → 27%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
72.8%
Dazz Newsome run for 20 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
72.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 11 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
71.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
72.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 15
OWN 43
-3
72.4%
Nathan Elliott sacked by B.J. Hill for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 18
OWN 40
+2
71.7%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 16
OWN 42
+32
72.6%
Hunter Lent punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Gavin Locklear at the NCSTATE 11 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Hunter Crafford) to the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0070% → 73%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
70.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 4 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+4
70.4%
Ryan Finley run for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+19
70.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 19 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
73.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
72.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+17
72.7%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Myles Wolfolk return for 17 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
67.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-4
68.4%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
71.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
70.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 5 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
70.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 41 yds, fair catch by M.J. Stewart at the NCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
68.7%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
68.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+10
69.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Johnathan Alston) to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
67.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Brandon Fritts, broken up by Airius MooreSimilar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
67.7%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
68.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q3 14:01
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
70.3%
Hunter Lent punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gavin Locklear at the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
70.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 5 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+20
70.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 20 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
71.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 5 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-1
73.0%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
71.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
69.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds, downed at the NCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
66.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Dexter WrightSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
66.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Jordon BrownSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
68.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+11
69.1%
Hunter Lent punt for 55 yds , Gavin Locklear returns for 11 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18MISSED FG
16 plays · 41 yds · 6:3168% → 64%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
68.1%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Will Richardson) to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
67.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
67.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+13
66.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 13 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
70.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 8
50
-5
71.1%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Joshua Fedd-Jackson) to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 13
OWN 45
-10
68.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Will Richardson) to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 23
OWN 35
+15
67.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 8
OWN 0
+15
66.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
72.5%
Jaylen Samuels run for 13 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 0
OPP 7
-10
73.8%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Will Richardson) to the NCaro 17Similar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 0
OPP 17
+8
73.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 8 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
72.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by Patrice ReneSimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 0
OPP 9
-15
70.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive pass interference (C.J. Riley) to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 0
OPP 24
0
70.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 0
OPP 24
+41
64.0%
Kyle Bambard 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
59.3%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+13
58.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 13 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
56.5%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
56.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-15
56.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Khaliel Rodgers) to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 20
OWN 30
+2
61.2%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 18
OWN 32
0
62.2%
Hunter Lent punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
1 play · 54 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
79.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 54 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:3824% → 27%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
75.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 13 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
75.1%
Nathan Elliott run for 14 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Mike StevensSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.5%
Dazz Newsome run for 5 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
73.4%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted Airius Moore return for no gain to the NCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
94.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ryan Finley pass to Jakobi Meyers for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 0
OWN 0
0
94.2%
PENALTY ST personal foul off-setting, PENALTY NC personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:378% → 26%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
92.0%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+24
91.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
50
+17
90.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 17 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
89.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for no gain to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
89.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 8 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+7
90.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 7 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
89.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Brandon Fritts) to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 25
OPP 33
+14
89.9%
Michael Carter run for 14 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+13
89.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 13 yds to the NCSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 0
OPP 6
+3
88.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive holding (Mike Stevens) to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
89.4%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.4%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
74.3%
Jordan Cunningham 2 Yd pass from Nathan Elliott (Freeman Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:4386% → 98%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.4%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
86.9%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
85.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
87.8%
Ryan Finley run for 8 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
88.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
50
-6
88.3%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 43 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ryan FinleySimilar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+21
87.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 6 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Myles Dorn) to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
88.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
88.9%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+9
87.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 9 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
88.9%
Ryan Finley run for no gain to the NCaro 26 Ryan Finley fumbled, forced by Myles Wolfolk, recovered by NCStSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+16
96.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 16 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.1%
Jaylen Samuels run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25INT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:582% → 3%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
97.6%
Nathan Elliott run for 15 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
97.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+12
97.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 12 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
97.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
96.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+73
97.2%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted Germaine Pratt return for 73 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:01
Nyheim Hines run for 48 yds for a TD, (Ryan Finley pass to Jakobi Meyers for Two-Point Conversion)
+21.4
TD · Q3 0:40
Nyheim Hines run for 54 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q4 8:16
Jordan Cunningham 2 Yd pass from Nathan Elliott (Freeman Jones Kick)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com