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NCSU

NC State 24 at Wake Forest 30

WAKE
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:49 · Dom Maggio punt for 32 yds , Gavin Locklear returns for no gain to the NCSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 179Pregame prior+0.1Home team on offense+24.0Garbage-time factor+17.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Score differential+2.3Blowout margin−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:12: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:47: John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +9.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:32: Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 20 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +16.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:45: Kyle Bambard 25 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:03: John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 18 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver PAT BLOCKED) — WAKE win probability +21.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NCSU 4th & 2 at WAKE 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:13NCSU 4th & 2 at WAKE 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:12WAKE 4th & 1 at NCSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−1.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−6.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:46NCSU 4th & 6 at WAKE 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:55WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:24WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:04NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:29WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:32NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−4.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:14WAKE 4th & 10 at NCSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−10.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:53NCSU 4th & 1 at WAKE 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−5.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:45NCSU 4th & 8 at WAKE 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−14.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:38WAKE 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−5.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−8.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:58NCSU 4th & 1 at WAKE 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−8.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−7.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:49WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:59WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:13NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:35WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:12NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:47WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:32NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:03WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
61.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
61.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 5 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
61.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+12
61.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 12 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
61.0%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
61.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen Samuels, broken up by Grant DawsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+9
61.0%
Ryan Finley run for 9 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
61.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:3261% → 63%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
61.1%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+39
61.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 39 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
61.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 9 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+2
61.6%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
63.4%
Matt Colburn run for 11 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4637% → 40%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
62.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 7 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
62.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon, broken up by Ja'Sir TaylorSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
62.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+9
62.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
62.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 32 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
61.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+1
61.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the WFrst 15Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+4
62.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+11
60.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:3261% → 66%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
60.8%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
60.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Mike StevensSimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+11
60.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 11 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
61.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
61.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 9 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+13
61.6%
Matt Colburn run for 13 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
62.0%
John Wolford run for no gain to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
62.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 12 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
66.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 21 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 2:3535% → 34%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-15
63.9%
Gallaspy, R. rush up middle for 1 yard to the ST33 (Black, P;Williams, Jab), PENALTY ST illegal block (Prescod, T.) 15 yards to the ST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-8
64.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 1 yd to the NCSt 18 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-9 Yards) to the NCSt 9Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 26
OWN 9
+15
65.0%
Finley, R. deep pass incomplete to Hines, N., PENALTY WF pass interference (Dawson, G) 15 yards to the ST24, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
64.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
64.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+1
65.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+9
66.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 48 yds , Jessie Bates III returns for 9 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
66.0%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
66.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 6 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+9
66.4%
Matt Colburn run for 9 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
67.1%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
66.9%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 12
50
-5
65.9%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Justin Herron) to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
65.6%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam SerigneSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
64.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nyheim Hines at the NCSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 6:2934% → 46%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
66.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 18 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
65.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
65.4%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
65.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
64.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
64.5%
Ryan Finley run for 6 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
64.3%
Ryan Finley run for 1 yd to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
64.3%
Hines, N. rush right for 7 yards to the WF37 (Bateman, E;Glenn, C), PENALTY ST illegal block (Bradbury, G.) 15 yards to the ST41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+20
65.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 20 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
64.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+8
64.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 8 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+28
63.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 28 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2561% → 73%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
60.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 35 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
63.0%
Arkeem Byrd run for 13 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
63.6%
Arkeem Byrd run for 7 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+1
63.6%
Arkeem Byrd run for 1 yd to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
62.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 1 yd to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+3
61.5%
Arkeem Byrd run for 3 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
63.6%
John Wolford run for 11 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
63.6%
Arkeem Byrd run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 7Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
72.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 1:5731% → 29%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
68.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
69.2%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+11
70.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 11 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
68.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 5 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+9
67.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 9 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
68.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin Harmon, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
68.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 4 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
69.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
71.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
72.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
71.6%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
72.1%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Shawn BooneSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+4
71.0%
John Wolford run for 4 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+8
70.4%
Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for 8 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:1429% → 49%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
70.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 20 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
69.4%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
69.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi Meyers, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+19
70.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to JuMichael Ramos for 19 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
67.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 2 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
66.6%
Ryan Finley run for 6 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+9
67.7%
Ryan Finley run for 9 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
51.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 20 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 57%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
59.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Scotty Washington) to the WFrst 23Similar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+5
59.0%
John Wolford run for 5 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
59.2%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
57.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
57.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 55 yds for a touchback , Nyheim Hines returns for no gain Nyheim Hines fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2244% → 41%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
56.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
55.4%
Jaylen Samuels run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-1
56.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
58.9%
A.J. Cole III punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
64.1%
Arkeem Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 48Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+1
62.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 1 yd to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
61.2%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
60.6%
Dom Maggio punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
56.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-4
57.1%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 13 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ryan FinleySimilar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 14
OWN 13
0
58.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 14
OWN 13
0
59.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates III at the WFrst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17FG
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:1863% → 68%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+41
63.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 41 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
66.5%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+3
65.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 3 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
64.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
67.6%
Mike Weaver 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
64.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds to the NCSt 46 Jaylen Samuels fumbled, forced by Demetrius Kemp, recovered by WFrst Paris BlackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
70.6%
John Wolford pass intercepted Shawn Boone return for no gain to the NCSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20FG
19 plays · 76 yds · 8:0834% → 47%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
66.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+13
66.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 13 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
65.5%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
65.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 5 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+12
64.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 12 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
61.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
62.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 9 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
61.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+11
63.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for 11 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
60.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 2 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
60.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+7
62.3%
Ryan Finley run for 7 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
60.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
60.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+8
62.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
60.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the WFrst 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
60.5%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
62.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
52.7%
Kyle Bambard 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:3561% → 89%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+32
60.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 17 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Ryan Finley) to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
65.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 9 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-2
67.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+1
65.2%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+4
62.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 4 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
67.3%
John Wolford run for 5 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
67.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 6 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
89.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 18 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22FUMBLE
15 plays · 71 yds · 0:0019% → 25%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
80.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
80.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+13
81.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 13 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
79.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
77.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
79.1%
Ryan Finley run for 1 yd to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
77.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 6 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-3
76.8%
Ryan Finley sacked by Willie Yarbary for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+8
77.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
75.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
75.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 7 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+15
77.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 15 yds to the WFrst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
74.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 10 yds Emeka Emezie fumbled, forced by Demetrius Kemp, recovered by WFrst Demetrius KempSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0294% → 95%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.4%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
94.5%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-2
95.1%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
95.3%
Dom Maggio punt for 32 yds , Gavin Locklear returns for no gain to the NCSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0011% → 15%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
88.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the WAKEFOREST 46 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, roughing passer (Sulaiman Kamara) to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
82.2%
Finley, R. sideline pass incomplete to Harmon, K. (Bassey, E), PENALTY ST holding (Jones, T.) 10 yards to the WF41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+6
89.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 6 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 14
OPP 35
0
84.8%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted, touchback. Essang Bassey return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:03
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 18 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver PAT BLOCKED)
+21.8
TD · Q3 10:32
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 20 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
-16.6
FG · Q4 10:45
Kyle Bambard 25 yd FG GOOD
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com