Try the model
NCSU

NC State 17 at Boston College 14

BC
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:24 · Mike Knoll punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior−3.7Home team on offense−4.7Garbage-time factor−1.9Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:26: Jaylen Samuels run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:25: AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the NCSt 18 — BC win probability +12.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 0:11: Thadd Smith run for 12 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +25.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:22: Nyheim Hines run for 50 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK) — NCSU win probability +34.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:45: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the BC 28 — NCSU win probability +14.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:57NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:07NCSU 4th & 14 at BC 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    42% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:18BC 4th & 4 at NCSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:43NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:52BC 4th & 1 at NCSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−0.8
    85% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:06NCSU 4th & 6 at BC 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:08BC 4th & 9 at BC 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:55BC 4th & 25 at BC 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−4.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:34NCSU 4th & 10 at BC 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−11.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:24BC 4th & 3 at BC 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:02NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:13BC 4th & 24 at BC 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−8.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:15BC 4th & 12 at NCSU 22, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 10.7 ptsWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%−10.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−19.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:09NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−7.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:50BC 4th & 10 at BC 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:28NCSU 4th & 2 at BC 21, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%−1.6
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−19.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:10BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:26NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:11BC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:22NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5062% → 62%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
38.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
38.2%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
38.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
38.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2INT
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:3039% → 40%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
38.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 11 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
38.7%
Thadd Smith run for 3 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+18
38.9%
AJ Dillon run for 18 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
39.3%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+23
39.5%
Anthony Brown run for 23 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
39.8%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
40.1%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted, touchback. Shawn Boone return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 5:5061% → 58%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
39.4%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
39.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
39.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 15 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
39.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
39.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+12
39.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 12 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
39.6%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-5
39.7%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 44Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+12
40.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 12 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
39.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-1
39.8%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 31Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
40.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 9
OPP 31
-5
41.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BC 36Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 14
OPP 36
+53
41.6%
Kyle Bambard 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4542% → 43%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
41.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Ray MartenSimilar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
41.7%
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
42.3%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
43.0%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
43.3%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-2
43.5%
Anthony Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 41 Anthony Brown fumbled, recovered by BC Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
43.0%
Mike Knoll punt for 29 yds, downed at the NCSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2858% → 57%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
41.8%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCSt 12Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
42.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 5 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
42.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
43.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 39 yds, downed at the BC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:3945% → 45%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
44.5%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+18
44.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 18 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
45.3%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+11
45.9%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
46.0%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
46.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jon HillimanSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+7
45.7%
Anthony Brown run for 7 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
45.0%
Jon Hilliman pass incomplete to Chris GarrisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7MISSED FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:3857% → 58%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+18
43.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 18 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
42.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+16
43.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 16 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+20
42.4%
Nyheim Hines run for 20 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
41.2%
Jakobi Meyers run for 3 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
40.8%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the BC 32Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+9
42.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 9 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
40.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Cole CookSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
41.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 4 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
41.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
42.4%
Kyle Bambard 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4246% → 57%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
45.9%
Darius Wade run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 18Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+11
45.8%
Thadd Smith run for 11 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
45.8%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
46.8%
Darius Wade run for 3 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+66
56.8%
AJ Dillon run for 66 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 3:3144% → 60%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
55.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
56.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Noa Merritt) to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+36
55.8%
Ryan Finley run for 36 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
53.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
53.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+18
55.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 18 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
52.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+4
52.5%
Ryan Finley run for 4 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
52.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 6 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+4
52.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the BC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
53.1%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the BC 8Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
40.3%
Jaylen Samuels run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:3848% → 49%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
48.0%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 27Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+6
47.6%
Darius Wade pass complete to Jeff Smith for 6 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-10
48.6%
Darius Wade sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 23 Darius Wade fumbled, forced by Bradley Chubb, recovered by NCSt Kentavius Street , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2460% → 59%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
40.5%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the BC 23Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
40.7%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted Ty Schwab return for no gain to the BC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4349% → 47%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
49.4%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 25Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-2
49.4%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+2
48.1%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
47.1%
TEAM punt blocked by Tyrone Riley blocked by Tyrone Riley Mike Knoll run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13FG
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0561% → 63%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
39.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the BC 24Similar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+41
36.6%
Kyle Bambard 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
41.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
14 plays · 32 yds · 5:5942% → 40%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
42.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, False Start (Chris Lindstrom) to the BC 12Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+2
41.8%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+15
41.2%
Darius Wade pass complete to Jeff Smith for 15 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
41.9%
AJ Dillon run for 13 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
44.3%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 43Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
44.1%
Darius Wade pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 8 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
44.6%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
45.5%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+5
45.6%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-7
45.8%
Darius Wade sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 17
OPP 43
-4
43.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Kobay White for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 21
OPP 47
-4
41.8%
Darius Wade sacked by Bradley Chubb and Jerod Fernandez for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 49Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 25
OWN 49
0
40.1%
Mike Knoll punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16MISSED FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 4:1460% → 61%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
39.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
40.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+10
41.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 10 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
39.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
38.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+16
39.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 16 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
37.3%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+24
37.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 24 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
35.9%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the BC 20Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
35.2%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
35.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
38.6%
Kyle Bambard 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5640% → 38%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
40.1%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
40.1%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Ray MartenSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
38.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 4 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
37.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4462% → 65%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
38.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
37.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+15
39.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 15 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
35.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+14
35.5%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 12 yards to the NCSt 23 Jaylen Samuels fumbled, recovered by BC Kevin Bletzer , return for 14 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:1448% → 71%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
48.2%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
48.2%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+4
45.5%
Darius Wade run for 4 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
70.9%
Thadd Smith run for 12 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5937% → 34%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
63.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 2 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
62.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
62.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
65.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 32 yds , Michael Walker returns for no gain to the BC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:4368% → 67%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
67.5%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 26Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+16
67.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 16 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
70.7%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
71.6%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
72.0%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 49Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 14
OWN 49
-9
69.9%
Darius Wade sacked by Shawn Boone for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 40Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 23
OWN 40
+4
68.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 19
OWN 44
-5
66.6%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the BC 39Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 24
OWN 39
0
66.6%
Mike Knoll punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:3832% → 72%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
67.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 4 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
67.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 4 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+25
68.3%
Jaylen Samuels run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
50
0
62.3%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
50
+50
27.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 50 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:5139% → 33%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
38.8%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
41.3%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
40.2%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
50
+20
40.6%
Darius Wade pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 20 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
43.6%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+5
43.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
42.6%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
42.7%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Ray MartenSimilar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 8
OPP 18
-4
40.0%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 12
OPP 22
0
33.2%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete to Colton CardinalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0075% → 75%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
24.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-2
23.6%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-1
23.5%
Ryan Finley sacked by Wyatt Ray and Ty Schwab for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
25.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 49 yds, downed at the BC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1536% → 29%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
36.4%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
35.0%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
33.3%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
29.4%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1785% → 95%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
15.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the BC 28Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
10.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+4
9.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 2
OPP 21
-2
5.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:1014% → 12%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
13.7%
Darius Wade sacked by Justin Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 22Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
12.7%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+3
12.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Kobay White for 13 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST down lat. to Michael Walker for 1 yd to the BC 39 for a 1ST down lat. to Jeff Smith for 3 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:22
Nyheim Hines run for 50 yds for a TD, (Kyle Bambard KICK)
-34.5
TD · Q3 0:11
Thadd Smith run for 12 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
+25.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:45
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the BC 28
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com