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NCSU

NC State 35 at Pittsburgh 17

PITT
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · A.J. Cole III punt for 43 yds, downed at the Pitt 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Pregame prior−24.6Home team on offense−3.6Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:38: Darrin Hall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +12.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:41: Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Maurice Ffrench — PITT win probability +5.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:32: Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 3 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK) — NCSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:55: Jaylen Samuels 1 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick) — NCSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:56: Alex Kessman 43 Yd Field Goal — PITT win probability +4.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NCSU 4th & 3 at PITT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:36PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:07NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:55PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:55PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NCSU 4th & 7 at PITT 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:40PITT 4th & 8 at NCSU 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:05NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:09NCSU 4th & 15 at PITT 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−2.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:00NCSU 4th & 9 at PITT 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:36PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:15NCSU 4th & 4 at PITT 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−1.9
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:41PITT 4th & 16 at PITT 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−3.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:32PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:56PITT 4th & 8 at NCSU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−3.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:56NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:28PITT 4th & 10 at NCSU 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−1.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:05PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:37NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:38PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:32NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:55NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:01NCSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
19.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
19.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 12 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
19.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
19.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 9 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
19.9%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
19.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+6
19.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for 6 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
19.9%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
19.9%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
22.2%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
22.1%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 8 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
22.3%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete, broken up by B.J. HillSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
22.1%
Ryan Winslow punt for 50 yds, downed at the NCSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
22.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
22.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for 2 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
23.1%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 5
OWN 13
+28
23.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 42 , Quadree Henderson returns for 28 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:3224% → 29%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
24.2%
Jordan Whitehead run for 5 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-2
24.2%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Quadree Henderson for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+7
24.1%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 7 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
24.3%
Jordan Whitehead run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+33
28.9%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 33 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:2872% → 75%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
27.9%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+83
25.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 83 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:4225% → 23%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
25.2%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+1
25.3%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+12
24.9%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 12 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
25.5%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jordan Whitehead for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
25.3%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
25.2%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Nick McCloudSimilar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+92
22.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 53 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for 92 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.9%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Chris Clark for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
23.5%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
22.9%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Aaron Mathews, broken up by Mike StevensSimilar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
22.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 40 yds, downed at the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
22.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
21.9%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+3
21.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
22.1%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
22.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 43 yds, downed at the Pitt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 55 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
23.3%
Darrin Hall run for 9 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+8
23.3%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 8 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
23.4%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jordan Whitehead for 8 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+17
24.0%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 17 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
24.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+9
24.4%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 9 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
24.8%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
24.8%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
24.5%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Aaron Mathews, broken up by Jarius MoreheadSimilar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
23.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Nyheim Hines at the NCSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
24.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+1
24.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 1 yd to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
24.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete, broken up by Dennis BriggsSimilar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
25.1%
A.J. Cole III punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 5:1924% → 39%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
23.9%
Jordan Whitehead run for 8 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+15
25.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 15 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
25.6%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
25.6%
Jordan Whitehead run for 3 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+3
25.5%
Ben Dinucci run for 3 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
25.6%
Quadree Henderson run for 15 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
26.3%
Jordan Whitehead run for 6 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+4
26.3%
Jordan Whitehead run for 4 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
26.3%
Brian O'Neill run for 10 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.2%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12MISSED FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 2:2968% → 67%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
32.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 34 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
30.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+5
29.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
29.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
29.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+14
30.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 14 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
28.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
28.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 5 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-15
29.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 4 yards to the UP0, clock 00:15, PENALTY ST pass interference (Kelvin Harmon) 15 yards to the UP19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 17
OPP 19
+2
31.2%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 15
OPP 17
+34
33.4%
Carson Wise 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
36.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
37.9%
Jordan Whitehead run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
37.3%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
35.8%
Ben Dinucci pass intercepted Mike Stevens return for no gain to the Pitt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0068% → 65%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
31.7%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+3
32.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
32.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
34.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 36%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
38.6%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 9 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+7
38.3%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 7 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
37.3%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes, broken up by Jarius MoreheadSimilar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
36.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nyheim Hines at the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
34.3%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
35.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 15 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
33.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+2
33.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-2
33.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
35.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 28 yds, downed at the Pitt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
40.9%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+7
40.7%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 7 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+9
39.6%
Ben Dinucci run for 9 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.4%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Matt FlanaganSimilar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
41.1%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 19 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
44.4%
Jordan Whitehead run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 14
OWN 40
-10
41.9%
Ben DiNucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 13 yards to the ST47 (Nick McCloud), PENALTY UP holding (Jaylen Twyman) 10 yards to the UP30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 24
OWN 30
+8
41.1%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 8 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 16
OWN 38
0
40.5%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
39.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 28 yds, downed at the NCSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 2:0061% → 80%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+43
39.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 43 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
34.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 11 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
34.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
34.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
20.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 3 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
26.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
27.9%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
26.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Darrin Hall, broken up by Bradley ChubbSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+2
24.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 35 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:5478% → 94%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
22.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+8
21.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 8 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
20.3%
Ryan Finley run for 5 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
20.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 9 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
19.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+36
19.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 36 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
18.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+4
18.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.4%
Jaylen Samuels 1 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:5911% → 12%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
10.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 23 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
12.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+11
12.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 11 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
12.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
12.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 14 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
13.3%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+1
13.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
12.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
12.3%
Alex Kessman 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
10.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+4
10.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+5
10.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 58 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 5 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
9.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
9.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for no gain to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+10
8.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester Weah, PENALTY ST holding (Nick McCloud) 10 yards to the UP33, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
10.0%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
9.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 12 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
11.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Aaron MathewsSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
10.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Chris Clark for 13 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
12.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
11.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
11.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 10
OPP 42
+2
9.7%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 41 Darrin Hall fumbled, recovered by Pitt Jester Weah , return for 2 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 1:2694% → 99%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
6.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-1
5.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+9
5.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
5.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
4.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+40
1.1%
Jaylen Samuels 40 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.8%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 6 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+9
0.7%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
50
-12
0.8%
Ben Dinucci sacked by Darian Roseboro for a loss of 12 yards to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 22
OWN 38
0
0.8%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 22
OWN 38
-3
0.8%
Ben Dinucci run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 38 Ben Dinucci fumbled, forced by Darian Roseboro, recovered by NCSt Germaine PrattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-2
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:32
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 3 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q2 2:38
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)
+12.8
TD · Q4 11:55
Jaylen Samuels 1 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick)
-12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com