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LOU

Louisville 25 at NC State 39

NCSU
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2017 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:36 · Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 189Home team on offense+27.3Pregame prior−0.1Score differential+9.6Garbage-time factor+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.2Time remaining+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:47: Nyheim Hines 11 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick) — NCSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:35: Nyheim Hines 7 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick) — NCSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:39: Lamar Jackson 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — LOU win probability +18.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:07: Reggie Gallaspy II 3 Yd Run (Ryan Finley Pass to Nyheim Hines for Two-Point Conversion) — NCSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:10: Lamar Jackson 3 Yd Run (Blanton Creque PAT blocked) — LOU win probability +13.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:26LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:21LOU 4th & 7 at NCSU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:13NCSU 4th & 2 at LOU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:29LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:19NCSU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.3%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:03NCSU 4th & 4 at LOU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:23LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:15NCSU 4th & 16 at LOU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−2.9
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−8.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:16LOU 4th & 8 at NCSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:12LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:14NCSU 4th & 7 at LOU 43, up 13
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:09NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:36LOU 4th & 16 at NCSU 19, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 11:47NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:27LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:47NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:35NCSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:39LOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:07NCSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:10LOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:52NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1460% → 59%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
40.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-4
40.2%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+7
40.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 7 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 2
OWN 26
-5
40.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+52
41.0%
Mason King punt for 52 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 26 Nyheim Hines fumbled, recovered by NCSt Maurice TrowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:4541% → 43%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
41.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
41.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+9
41.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
41.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 6 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+11
42.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 11 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+33
42.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 33 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
42.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for no gain to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
42.8%
Jakobi Meyers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 13Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 0
OPP 13
-6
42.7%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 19 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by Lvile James HearnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:4258% → 57%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
42.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 6 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+11
41.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
42.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
50
+4
41.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
41.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
41.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Eurndraus Bryant for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+10
42.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 10 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-5
42.0%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
43.0%
Mason King punt for 35 yds, downed at the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:4844% → 46%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
43.5%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+12
43.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 12 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
44.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+7
44.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
44.6%
Jaylen Samuels pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
44.5%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+23
44.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 23 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
46.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 8 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
46.7%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
46.5%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
45.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 42 yds, downed at the Lvile 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:3056% → 55%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+17
44.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 17 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
44.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
44.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
45.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
45.5%
Mason King punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nyheim Hines at the NCSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:3347% → 54%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
46.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
47.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 1
50
0
47.1%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 1
50
+2
46.3%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
54.2%
Kelvin Harmon 48 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Carson Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5348% → 59%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
52.3%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Shawn Boone for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 18Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+14
52.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Corey Reed for 14 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
52.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 11 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
52.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
52.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Mekhi Becton) to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+10
53.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+11
52.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
52.3%
Malik Williams run for 7 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+11
51.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
41.2%
Seth Dawkins 23 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 87 yds · 1:5847% → 52%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
47.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+79
47.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 79 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
51.0%
Ryan Finley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
51.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the Lvile 4Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
50.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
51.8%
Carson Wise 21 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5949% → 47%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
50.9%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Eurndraus Bryant for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+18
51.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 18 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
51.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
52.6%
Mason King punt for 39 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for 4 yds to the NCSt 33 NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:2452% → 67%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
51.9%
Ryan Finley run for 9 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+5
53.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
52.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
52.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
50
0
54.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
50
+39
54.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 39 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
66.6%
Nyheim Hines 11 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11END OF HALF
18 plays · 68 yds · 1:3736% → 45%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
63.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+2
62.6%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
63.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 8 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+6
62.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
62.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
61.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+27
62.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 27 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
60.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
61.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 15
OPP 32
0
61.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+16
63.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 16 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
59.8%
NC STATE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+28
54.7%
Blanton Creque 28 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12MISSED FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 5:2562% → 66%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
62.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
63.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
63.5%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
64.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+7
65.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
66.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
66.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 12 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
67.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+27
67.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 27 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
68.4%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 14Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
68.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 13
OPP 14
-3
68.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 17Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+35
66.4%
Carson Wise 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:4435% → 40%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
64.8%
Malik Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 19Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
65.6%
Malik Williams run for 12 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+26
64.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 26 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
61.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
60.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+5
60.8%
Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-5
62.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
63.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Corey ReedSimilar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+48
59.6%
Blanton Creque 48 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:3663% → 83%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
62.6%
NC STATE Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
62.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
61.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+17
60.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 17 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
64.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 38 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 16
OWN 28
+11
63.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 11 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+45
66.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 45 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
69.0%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the Lvile 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.6%
Jakobi Meyers run for no gain to the Lvile 7Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.1%
Nyheim Hines 7 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 62 yds · 3:4021% → 36%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
79.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
50
+2
77.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 2 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
78.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+7
79.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
78.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
77.3%
Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-5
77.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
81.5%
Reggie Bonnafon pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+5
83.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kentavius Street) to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+10
82.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 10 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.8%
Lamar Jackson 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:0376% → 95%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
76.3%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+15
77.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trumaine Washington) to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
79.7%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
79.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+21
78.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 21 yds to the Lvile 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II 3 Yd Run (Ryan Finley Pass to Nyheim Hines for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:497% → 6%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
93.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
93.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
94.0%
Mason King punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nyheim Hines at the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:4595% → 96%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
94.7%
Ryan Finley run for 6 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
95.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
95.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
95.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
95.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:594% → 18%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
95.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 8 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
95.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+65
95.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 65 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
94.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the NCSt 3Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.6%
Lamar Jackson 3 Yd Run (Blanton Creque PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:3593% → 94%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
93.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
93.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
93.8%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
93.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Russ Yeast at the Lvile 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:109% → 3%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
90.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+25
97.5%
Germaine Pratt 25 Yd Interception Return (Carson Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22DOWNS
15 plays · 48 yds · 2:093% → 2%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
97.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 5 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
97.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 1 yd to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
97.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+32
97.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Corey Reed for 17 yds to the NCSTATE 39 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Roughing Passer (B.J. Hill) to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
96.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 1 yd to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
96.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Corey ReedSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+10
97.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Corey Reed for 10 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
96.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Geron Christian) to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+9
97.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Malik Williams for 9 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 11
OPP 14
-5
96.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Mekhi Becton) to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 16
OPP 19
0
97.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 16
OPP 19
0
97.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Corey ReedSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 16
OPP 19
0
97.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:39
Lamar Jackson 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-18.6
TD · Q4 10:07
Reggie Gallaspy II 3 Yd Run (Ryan Finley Pass to Nyheim Hines for Two-Point Conversion)
+16
TD · Q3 1:35
Nyheim Hines 7 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick)
+13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com