2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:08 · Oscar Bradburn punt for 34 yds, downed at the ODU 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 7:33: OLDDOMINION Penalty, false start (A.J. Davison) to the ODU 9 — ODU win probability +1.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:07: Josh Jackson pass complete to Steven Peoples for 17 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +2.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:40: Steven Peoples run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +3.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:48: Josh Jackson pass complete to Steven Peoples for 43 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:06: Josh Jackson pass complete to C.J. Carroll for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ODU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 14:27ODU 4th & 1 at VT 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:30VT 4th & 10 at ODU 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.6%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call94.6%88% to makePunt94.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:35ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q1 5:29VT 4th & 12 at ODU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snapGo for it93.4%−0.120% to convertField goalTheir call93.5%84% to makePunt93.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:45ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q1 0:53VT 4th & 5 at VT 37, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snapGo for it92.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.4%average punt
- Q2 12:31ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 45, down 3Close callPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:19VT 4th & 11 at VT 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snapGo for it90.8%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.2%average punt
- Q2 9:35ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 45, down 3Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:56ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 37, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q3 12:53ODU 4th & 6 at ODU 29, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q3 7:00ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 35, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 4:08VT 4th & 3 at ODU 42, up 31Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.8%52% to convertField goal99.7%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:58ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 15, down 31Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 13:31ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 34, down 38Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:04VT 4th & 1 at VT 49, up 38Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 7:45ODU 4th & 9 at midfield, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q2 6:07VT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:40VT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:48VT Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:06VT Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:31VT Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1DOWNS6 plays · 25 yds · 0:334% → 4%
VTDrive 2MISSED FG10 plays · 40 yds · 3:4396% → 95%
Q1 12:35
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+17
95.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 17 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+5
95.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the ODU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
95.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Deshawn McClease for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:555% → 5%
Q1 8:35
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+16
94.7%
Bailey Cate punt for 44 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 16 yds to the ODU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4FG7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2995% → 94%
Q1 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+29
94.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 29 yds to the ODU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 1:396% → 6%
Q1 5:24
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+12
94.2%
Steven Williams Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 12 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
94.1%
Steven Williams Jr. pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 13 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
93.8%
Bailey Cate punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4494% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 3:067% → 8%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.8%
Steven Williams Jr. pass complete to Brandon Simmons for 9 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
92.5%
Steven Williams Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 6 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
91.9%
Bailey Cate punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 12:19
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-3
91.7%
Josh Jackson sacked by Tim Ward for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:219% → 9%
VTDrive 10INT5 plays · 57 yds · 0:0091% → 92%
Q2 9:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+23
91.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 23 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
91.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Henri Murphy for 17 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
92.0%
Josh Jackson pass intercepted Sean Carter return for no gain to the ODU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q2 7:33
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+5
90.8%
Steven Williams Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Harper for 5 yds to the ODU 14Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
90.9%
Steven Williams Jr. pass intercepted Divine Deablo return for no gain to the ODU 14 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD3 plays · 41 yds · 0:3691% → 94%
Q2 6:14
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+15
91.4%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam Phillips, clock 06:14, PENALTY ODU pass interference (Rob Thompson) 15 yards to the ODU17, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
93.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Steven Peoples for 17 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:077% → 7%
VTDrive 14TD14 plays · 79 yds · 3:0493% → 97%
Q2 3:44
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+5
92.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to C.J. Carroll for 5 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
93.0%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric Kumah, broken up by Rob ThompsonSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+23
92.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 23 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
93.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 19 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16TD4 plays · 70 yds · 1:0695% → 98%
ODUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:453% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18TD11 plays · 59 yds · 4:3698% → 100%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
98.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Steven Peoples for 13 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
98.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 11 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+10
98.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dalton Keene for 10 yds to the ODU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.2%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Cunningham, broken up by Jamez BrickhouseSimilar
Q3 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Josh Jackson pass complete to C.J. Carroll for 5 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q3 8:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.7%
Jeremy Cox run for 2 yds to the ODU 35 Jeremy Cox fumbled, forced by Reggie Floyd, recovered by ODU Jeremy Cox for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.7%
Steven Williams Jr. sacked by Andrew Motuapuaka for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 34Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+16
99.7%
Bailey Cate punt for 42 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 16 yds to the VTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
VTDrive 22TD9 plays · 64 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
ODUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:04
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, offside defense (Juwan Ross) to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-6
99.9%
Coleman Fox run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
AJ Bush pass incomplete VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.9%
Steven Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, clock 08:53, PENALTY VT pass interference (Bryce Watts) 15 yards to the ODU35, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
99.9%
Steven Williams Jr. pass complete to Marques Little for 14 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 9
50
0
99.9%
Steven Williams Jr. pass incomplete to Travis Fulgham, broken up by Bryce WattsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26END OF GAME13 plays · 66 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:38
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+13
99.9%
AJ Bush pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 13 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:40
Steven Peoples run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q3 13:48
Josh Jackson pass complete to Steven Peoples for 43 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q2 6:07
Josh Jackson pass complete to Steven Peoples for 17 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+2.3