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NCSU

NC State 27 at Florida State 21

FSU
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDSAFETYFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:45 · James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 4 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior+22.7Home team on offense−3.5Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:34: Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 71 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK) — NCSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:06: Carson Wise 30 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:08: Ricky Aguayo 37 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:16: Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 14 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK) — NCSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:01: Ricky Aguayo 34 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +17.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:43FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:09NCSU 4th & 6 at FSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:20NCSU 4th & 2 at FSU 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:45FSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:55NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, up 3
    Close callPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:35NCSU 4th & 21 at NCSU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:07FSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 13, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.8%−1.0
    85% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−6.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:31NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:06NCSU 4th & 12 at FSU 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−13.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:37FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:14NCSU 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:08FSU 4th & 19 at NCSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−5.4
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−12.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:11FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:14FSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 41, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%
    32% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:31NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 36, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:01FSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 17, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−6.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:20NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:24FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:34NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:16NCSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:0280% → 79%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
79.4%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
79.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Derrick Kelly II) to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-3
79.1%
James Blackman sacked by B.J. Hill for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
78.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds, downed at the NCSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:2521% → 23%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
79.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
78.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+12
78.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 12 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
78.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+8
78.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-6
78.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+3
78.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+27
78.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 27 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
77.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
77.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
77.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q1 8:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
77.2%
Carson Wise 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1577% → 77%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
77.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
76.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
76.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Nyheim Hines at the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:0523% → 28%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
77.0%
Jaylen Samuels pass complete to Dylan Parham for 25 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
76.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+15
76.3%
Finley, Ryan pass incomplete to Samuels, Jaylen, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul (Burns, Brian) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
76.0%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+16
75.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 16 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
75.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+12
75.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.8%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
74.8%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for 2 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4372% → 74%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
71.5%
Cam Akers run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
70.7%
Cam Akers run for 16 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
71.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 2 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-5
70.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Derrick Kelly II) to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+12
70.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 12 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-2
69.6%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+4
68.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 4 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
69.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
69.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Johnathan VickersSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+24
68.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 24 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
68.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
68.3%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the NCSt 4Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
73.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2428% → 29%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.6%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
70.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for no gain to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
71.1%
A.J. Cole III punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tarvarus McFadden at the FlaSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:3971% → 70%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
71.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 15 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
72.1%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
72.3%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
71.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
71.8%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
70.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 7 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+31
70.0%
James Blackman run for 31 yds to the NCSt 2 James Blackman fumbled, forced by Bradley Chubb, recovered by NCSt Shawn BooneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2532% → 32%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
67.9%
Gallaspy II, Reggie rush for no gain to the NCSTATE2, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul (Pugh, Jacob) 15 yards to the NCSTATE17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
67.4%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-6
67.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 16
OWN 11
-5
67.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 21
OWN 6
0
67.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 21
OWN 6
+15
68.5%
A.J. Cole III punt for 45 yds , Tarvarus McFadden returns for 15 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2170% → 67%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
69.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 15 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
70.0%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+6
69.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 6 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
68.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the NCSt 13Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
66.8%
Ricky Aguayo 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1136% → 46%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
64.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
63.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
62.5%
Dakwa Nichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+71
53.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 71 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 39 yds · 1:0752% → 57%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
52.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 1
50
-5
53.2%
Blackman, James pass incomplete to Gavin, Keith, PENALTY FLORIDAST illegal shift 5 yards to the FLORIDAST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+12
52.2%
James Blackman pass complete to George Campbell for 12 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
53.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+12
54.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 12 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
54.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-5
54.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+9
52.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 9 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+7
52.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 7 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
53.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-9
53.6%
James Blackman sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 19
OPP 20
+37
56.8%
Ricky Aguayo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
53.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1146% → 45%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
54.2%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+3
54.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
54.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+7
55.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 47 yds , Tarvarus McFadden returns for 7 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:5456% → 63%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+57
59.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 51 yds to the FLORIDAST 12 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the NCSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
59.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 2 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the NCSt 4Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
56.5%
James Blackman run for no gain to the NCSt 4 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 0
OPP 19
+36
63.3%
Ricky Aguayo 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 4:4941% → 56%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
58.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 2 yds to the NCSt 27 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Stephen Louis) to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+2
58.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+7
59.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+23
59.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 23 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
54.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+6
54.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
53.7%
Finley, Ryan pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 0 yards to the FLORIDAST39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
53.7%
Gallaspy II, Reggie rush for no gain to the FLORIDAST39, PENALTY FLORIDAST offside 5 yards to the FLORIDAST34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+30
49.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 30 yds to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
49.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
49.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 3
OPP 12
-9
50.5%
Jakobi Meyers sacked by Demarcus Christmas for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 12 NC STATE Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 6:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
43.6%
Carson Wise 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:1347% → 42%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
47.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
48.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
45.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
44.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
41.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nyheim Hines at the NCSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:5059% → 64%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
40.8%
Jaylen Samuels run for 8 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+4
37.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 4 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
37.7%
Locklear, Gavin pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul (Pugh, Jacob) 15 yards to the NCSTATE46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
35.7%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
35.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+5
36.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 6
50
+3
36.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 41 yds , Tarvarus McFadden returns for 3 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18FG
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:0041% → 45%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
40.9%
Cam Akers run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
41.1%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+60
40.7%
James Blackman pass complete to George Campbell for 60 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
44.3%
James Blackman sacked by B.J. Hill for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 15
OPP 16
-4
42.4%
James Blackman sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 19
OPP 20
0
38.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 19
OPP 20
+37
45.3%
Ricky Aguayo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4059% → 87%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
38.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 8 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
36.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 8 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+6
34.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
34.1%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
33.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+10
35.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 10 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
31.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
30.5%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
12.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 14 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:4616% → 14%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
16.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+13
16.0%
James Blackman pass complete to George Campbell for 13 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Amir RasulSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
16.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Amir Rasul for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
15.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
13.8%
Logan Tyler punt for 54 yds, downed at the NCSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21SF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:2988% → 84%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
11.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the NCSt 4Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
15.6%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:0619% → 12%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
19.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to George CampbellSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
18.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 4 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
18.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Derrick Kelly II) to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
15.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jacques PatrickSimilar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
12.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:5990% → 90%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
9.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-1
9.4%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-3
10.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 10
OWN 41
-5
11.2%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
10.1%
A.J. Cole III punt blocked by Brian Burns blocked by Brian BurnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2513% → 27%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
12.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
12.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 6 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
9.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
27.1%
Ricky Aguayo 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:3388% → 95%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
8.1%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
6.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 15 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-5
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 3:01
Ricky Aguayo 34 yd FG GOOD
+17.9
TD · Q4 9:16
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 14 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)
-17.7
TD · Q2 1:34
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 71 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com