Try the model
MRSH

Marshall 20 at NC State 37

NCSU
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:58 · Kaare Vedvik punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nyheim Hines at the NCSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+27.8Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:07: Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 75 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:05: Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 39 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK) — NCSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 0:16: Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 34 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise PAT MISSED) — NCSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:58: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:58: Reggie Gallaspy II run for 23 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:15NCSU 4th & 13 at MRSH 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:09MRSH 4th & 3 at NCSU 16, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.7%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:54MRSH 4th & 14 at MRSH 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:56NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:20MRSH 4th & 8 at NCSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:58MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:58NCSU 4th & 1 at MRSH 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−8.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:52MRSH 4th & 7 at NCSU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:01NCSU 4th & 1 at MRSH 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−1.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:56MRSH 4th & 19 at MRSH 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−2.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:05NCSU 4th & 5 at MRSH 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%−0.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:52MRSH 4th & 10 at NCSU 38, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%
    38% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:23MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:26NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:07MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:05NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:16NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:58NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:58NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
93.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 11 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
93.1%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
93.1%
Trey Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-5
93.1%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+2
93.1%
Trey Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
93.1%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:4893% → 92%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+46
92.6%
Ryan Finley run for 46 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
92.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+9
92.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 9 yds to the Marsh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
92.7%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the Marsh 9Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-5
92.7%
Ryan Finley sacked by Artis Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 14Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
92.7%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+31
92.0%
Carson Wise 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:458% → 10%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+33
92.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 33 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
91.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-2
91.9%
Trey Rodriguez run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+15
92.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 15 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
91.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 4 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+7
91.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
91.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 23 yds to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
91.8%
Trey Rodriguez run for 4 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 1 yd for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
90.2%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
90.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
90.0%
A.J. Cole punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trey Rodriguez at the Marsh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5FG
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:2710% → 13%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
89.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 6 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+53
89.8%
Keion Davis run for 53 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
89.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Trey Rodriguez for 6 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
89.4%
Trey Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the NCSt 16Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
89.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
87.4%
Kaare Vedvik 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:0288% → 86%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.7%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCSt 20Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
87.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
87.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
87.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+4
88.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Gavin Locklear for 4 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
88.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
88.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
88.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
85.9%
A.J. Cole punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trey Rodriguez at the Marsh 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
85.6%
Trey Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the Marsh 10Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
85.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 10
-5
85.8%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 5Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 14
OWN 5
0
85.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 14
OWN 5
0
86.1%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 57 yds, downed at the NCSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.3%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
85.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+6
84.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 6 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
84.8%
A.J. Cole punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trey Rodriguez at the Marsh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:4717% → 21%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
83.5%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 13Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+2
83.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 2 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+38
83.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 38 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
82.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 3 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+14
82.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 14 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
82.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
82.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+2
80.2%
Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
79.3%
Kaare Vedvik 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:4878% → 84%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
78.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 16 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
79.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+23
79.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 23 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
80.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 5 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-1
80.2%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
83.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 24 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
74.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 75 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5674% → 82%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen Samuels, broken up by Chase HancockSimilar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
74.4%
Jaylen Samuels run for 12 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
74.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+15
74.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 15 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
75.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 8 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+6
76.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
76.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the Marsh 39Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+39
81.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 39 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
76.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
77.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre Brady, broken up by Nick McCloudSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
77.8%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
78.9%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nyheim Hines at the NCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 1:2179% → 86%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
79.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
78.9%
Ryan Finley run for 3 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+10
78.2%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Rodney Allen) to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
79.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 16 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
80.9%
Ryan Finley sacked by Ryan Bee for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+14
77.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 14 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
79.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 9 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+34
85.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 34 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
83.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:5684% → 89%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
83.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-2
83.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+7
82.6%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive pass interference (7 Yards) to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
83.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
83.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
50
+23
85.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 23 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
85.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+14
84.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 14 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
85.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 9 yds to the Marsh 8Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+3
85.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
85.6%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 8Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
85.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the Marsh 2Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the Marsh 1Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17MISSED FG
20 plays · 56 yds · 7:5511% → 10%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
89.2%
Trey Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+11
89.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 11 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
88.9%
Trey Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
88.9%
Trey Rodriguez run for 5 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
89.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 6 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
88.4%
MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+5
89.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 5 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+23
89.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 23 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
87.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 6 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
86.9%
Trey Rodriguez run for 3 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
87.6%
Anthony Anderson run for 3 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
86.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 5 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
86.9%
Keion Davis run for 6 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-14
86.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Levi Brown) to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
87.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
87.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 3 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
88.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
90.5%
Kaare Vedvik 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:5191% → 91%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
91.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
91.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Gavin Locklear, broken up by Brandon DraytonSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+45
90.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 45 yds to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
92.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
92.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+3
91.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 3 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
91.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the Marsh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
90.9%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
91.1%
Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+7
90.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 7 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
90.1%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
90.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre Brady, broken up by Nick McCloudSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-11
91.1%
Chase Litton sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 11 yards to the Marsh 21Similar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
92.0%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Gavin Locklear at the NCSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
91.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Witt) to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+19
90.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 19 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
91.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 3 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
91.7%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-5
91.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 47Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+8
90.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 8 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
90.6%
A.J. Cole punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
93.8%
MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Marsh 10Similar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+18
93.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 18 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
92.6%
Trey Rodriguez run for no gain to the Marsh 28Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+9
93.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 9 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
92.8%
MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Marsh 22Similar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+1
93.9%
Chase Litton pass complete to Trey Rodriguez for 1 yd Trey Rodriguez fumbled, forced by Jerod Fernandez, recovered by NCSt Justin JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
98.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 23 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23INT
11 plays · 50 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
98.0%
Keion Davis run for 15 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.9%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
97.9%
Chase Litton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
97.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Hyleck FosterSimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+23
98.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 23 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
97.5%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Jarius Morehead) to the NCSt 7Similar
Q4 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by Airius MooreSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
97.5%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 9Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
97.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 6 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
99.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-1
99.0%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:07
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 75 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q2 0:16
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 34 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise PAT MISSED)
+6.7
TD · Q2 2:05
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 39 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com