2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Beaver Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreGAST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:08 · Blake Gillikin punt for 36 yds, downed at the GeoSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:40: Brandon Wright punt for 35 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 17 yds to the PnSt 37 — GAST win probability +5.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:01: Saeed Blacknall 35 Yd pass from Tommy Stevens (Tyler Davis Kick) — GAST win probability +2.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:06: Oliver Holdenson punt for 41 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 27 yds to the GeoSt 46 — GAST win probability +21.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:08: Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Miles Sanders — PSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:41: Oliver Holdenson punt for 38 yds , Mark Allen returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Garrett Taylor) to the PnSt 36 — GAST win probability +19.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 7:44GAST 4th & 6 at PSU 40, down 7Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.4%40% to convertField goal2.3%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call2.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:05PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%average punt
- Q1 1:47GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 12:53GAST 4th & 3 at PSU 43, tiedClose callPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it5.0%52% to convertField goal4.8%−0.228% to makePuntTheir call4.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:53GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q2 9:10PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.8%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.1%average punt
- Q2 0:40GAST 4th & 17 at GAST 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it9.5%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q2 0:10PSU 4th & 1 at GAST 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snapGo for it84.4%−0.471% to convertField goalTheir call84.8%74% to makePunt82.0%−2.9average punt
- Q3 4:06GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it32.7%−3.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.6%average punt
- Q3 3:08PSU 4th & 10 at GAST 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snapGo for it64.0%−1.230% to convertField goal62.5%−2.723% to makePuntTheir call65.2%average punt
- Q4 6:41GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 26, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 70.5% before the snapGo for it71.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.6%−1.5average punt
- Q4 5:11PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 41, down 14Close callPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it7.8%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:06GAST 4th & 1 at PSU 13, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.4%−0.571% to convertField goalTheir call97.9%85% to makePunt96.7%−1.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:48PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPSUDrive 1TD9 plays · 63 yds · 2:4399% → 99%
Q1 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
98.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 14 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
98.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 12 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
98.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 7 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+9
98.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 9 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
98.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 4 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.7%
Tommy Stevens 10 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD11 plays · 63 yds · 3:521% → 2%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
98.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Taz Bateman for 5 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
98.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 4 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 35 yds · 2:3298% → 98%
Q1 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+20
98.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 20 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-2
97.9%
Andre Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 22 Andre Robinson fumbled, recovered by PnSt Trace McSorleySimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
97.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Taz Bateman at the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 35 yds · 3:062% → 3%
Q1 2:11
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-4
97.1%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 43 Taz Bateman fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Taz BatemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 21 yds · 0:4897% → 97%
Q1 0:49
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+85
97.0%
Saquon Barkley 85 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 2:353% → 4%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+11
96.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Taz Bateman for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
96.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 4 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 29 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for no gain to the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT TD3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4596% → 97%
GASTDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:364% → 4%
Q2 10:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.1%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD5 plays · 83 yds · 1:2496% → 97%
GASTDrive 10TD1 play · 83 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
95.3%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Grant Haley return for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT TD1 play · 32 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 3:205% → 7%
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
95.1%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Hart, Penny, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Allen, Marcus) 15 yards to the GEORGIAST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
94.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 18 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
94.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tamir Jones for 5 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+12
93.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kyler Neal for 12 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+50
93.1%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Marcus Allen return for 50 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD4 plays · 86 yds · 1:3295% → 95%
Q2 3:48
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+12
94.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 12 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD13 plays · 86 yds · 2:357% → 14%
Q2 2:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
92.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 12 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+12
91.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 12 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-7
90.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Taz Bateman for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 17
OWN 45
+17
86.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 35 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 17 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1987% → 88%
GASTDrive 16PUNT1 play · 3 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT10 plays · -1 yds · 4:0816% → 23%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+14
79.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 14 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
77.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 5 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-8
77.2%
Conner Manning sacked by Shaka Toney and Manny Bowen for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 45 Conner Manning fumbled, recovered by PnSt Kevin Givens , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 2:2581% → 80%
GASTDrive 19INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
73.6%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Tariq Castro-Fields return for no gain to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20INT TD4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2178% → 76%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
78.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for 9 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
78.4%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Dontae Wilson for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 35 Tommy Stevens fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+35
75.7%
Saeed Blacknall 35 Yd pass from Tommy Stevens (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3832% → 54%
Q3 4:06
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+27
45.9%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 41 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 27 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD3 plays · 29 yds · 0:2250% → 68%
PSUDrive 23INT1 play · 45 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24INT13 plays · 45 yds · 6:5938% → 62%
Q4 10:42
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-6
37.6%
Aaron Winchester sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 31 Aaron Winchester fumbled, forced by Daniel Joseph, recovered by PnSt Yetur Gross-Matos , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD4 plays · 25 yds · 1:3445% → 48%
GASTDrive 26TD5 plays · 25 yds · 1:4167% → 91%
Q4 6:41
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+10
9.3%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 38 yds , Mark Allen returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Garrett Taylor) to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 20 yds · 0:5910% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28PUNT13 plays · 20 yds · 4:5293% → 98%
Q4 3:28
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+15
4.6%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Ari Werts for 15 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+27
2.6%
Aaron Winchester run for 17 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-8
2.5%
Taz Bateman run for 2 yds to the PnSt 20 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 20
OPP 32
-3
2.2%
Aaron Winchester sacked by Antonio Shelton and Daniel Joseph for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 23
OPP 35
+22
2.2%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 22 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29MISSED FG1 play · 42 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+97.6
TD · Q3 4:06
Oliver Holdenson punt for 41 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 27 yds to the GeoSt 46
-21.8
TD · Q4 6:41
Oliver Holdenson punt for 38 yds , Mark Allen returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Garrett Taylor) to the PnSt 36
-19.9