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GAST

Georgia State 0 at Penn State 56

PSU
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1PSU 96.7%Blake Gillikin punt for 48 yds , TazBateman returns for 1 yd to the GeoSt18AWAY 7 - HOME 14 · Q2 9:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:10 · Blake Gillikin punt for 48 yds , Taz Bateman returns for 1 yd to the GeoSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+41.4Home team on offense+4.5Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:40: Brandon Wright punt for 35 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 17 yds to the PnSt 37 — GAST win probability +5.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:01: Saeed Blacknall 35 Yd pass from Tommy Stevens (Tyler Davis Kick) — GAST win probability +2.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:06: Oliver Holdenson punt for 41 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 27 yds to the GeoSt 46 — GAST win probability +21.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:08: Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Miles Sanders — PSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:41: Oliver Holdenson punt for 38 yds , Mark Allen returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Garrett Taylor) to the PnSt 36 — GAST win probability +19.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 7:44GAST 4th & 6 at PSU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:05PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:47GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:53GAST 4th & 3 at PSU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:53GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:10PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:40GAST 4th & 17 at GAST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:10PSU 4th & 1 at GAST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.4
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:06GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−3.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:08PSU 4th & 10 at GAST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−2.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:41GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 26, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:11PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:06GAST 4th & 1 at PSU 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.5
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:48PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:4399% → 99%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
98.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 14 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
98.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 12 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
98.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 7 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+9
98.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 9 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
98.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 4 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+6
98.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.7%
Tommy Stevens 10 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:521% → 2%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.6%
Kyler Neal run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
98.5%
Taz Bateman run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+15
98.5%
Taz Bateman run for 15 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
98.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Taz Bateman for 5 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-5
98.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
98.3%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 4 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
98.3%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Tamir JonesSimilar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
98.1%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 39 yds, downed at the PnSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:3298% → 98%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
98.1%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
98.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 2Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+20
98.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 20 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
98.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-2
97.9%
Andre Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 22 Andre Robinson fumbled, recovered by PnSt Trace McSorleySimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
97.8%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
97.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Taz Bateman at the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 3:062% → 3%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
97.7%
Taz Bateman run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+10
97.6%
Taz Bateman run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
97.5%
Penny Hart run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
97.3%
Taz Bateman run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-4
97.1%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 43 Taz Bateman fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Taz BatemanSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
97.2%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 40 yds, downed at the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:4897% → 97%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
97.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
97.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-5
97.1%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 15Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+85
97.0%
Saquon Barkley 85 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:353% → 4%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.9%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
96.8%
Taz Bateman run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
96.6%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+11
96.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Taz Bateman for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
50
+3
96.4%
Taz Bateman run for 3 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
96.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 4 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
96.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Kyler NealSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 29 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for no gain to the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4596% → 97%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+44
96.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 44 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
96.6%
Miles Sanders run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
96.5%
DaeSean Hamilton 27 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:364% → 4%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.9%
Taz Bateman run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
95.7%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Devin GentrySimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.1%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by DeAndre Thompkins at the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:2496% → 97%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
96.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 5 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-5
96.2%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
96.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
95.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+1
96.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 48 yds , Taz Bateman returns for 1 yd to the GeoSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
95.3%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Grant Haley return for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
96.2%
Miles Sanders 29 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:205% → 7%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Taz Bateman run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
95.1%
Manning, Conner pass incomplete to Hart, Penny, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Allen, Marcus) 15 yards to the GEORGIAST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST.Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
94.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 18 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.0%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Chandon SullivanSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
94.0%
Conner Manning pass complete to Tamir Jones for 5 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+12
93.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Kyler Neal for 12 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
93.1%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+50
93.1%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Marcus Allen return for 50 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 1:3295% → 95%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
95.1%
Trace McSorley run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 3
OPP 18
-2
95.0%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+12
94.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 12 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.7%
Trace McSorley 8 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 2:357% → 14%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.9%
Taz Bateman run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
92.6%
Taz Bateman run for no gain to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
92.6%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 12 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
91.6%
Conner Manning run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
91.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Taz BatemanSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+12
91.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 12 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
90.3%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Jonathan IfediSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
90.5%
Taz Bateman run for no gain to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-7
90.7%
Conner Manning pass complete to Taz Bateman for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
91.4%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 17
OWN 45
+17
86.2%
Brandon Wright punt for 35 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 17 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1987% → 88%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
87.2%
Saquon Barkley run for 33 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
89.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
89.0%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+5
88.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 5 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+39
87.6%
Tyler Davis 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
84.9%
Taz Bateman run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · -1 yds · 4:0816% → 23%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.2%
Conner Manning pass complete to Penny Hart for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
82.8%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
81.4%
Taz Bateman run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-3
80.1%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+14
79.4%
Conner Manning pass complete to Todd Boyd for 14 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
78.2%
Conner Manning pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
77.5%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 5 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-8
77.2%
Conner Manning sacked by Shaka Toney and Manny Bowen for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 45 Conner Manning fumbled, recovered by PnSt Kevin Givens , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:2581% → 80%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
81.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 6 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
81.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+9
80.9%
Trace McSorley run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
80.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 21 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
80.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
80.1%
Brandon Polk 15 Yd pass from Trace McSorley (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
73.6%
Conner Manning pass intercepted Tariq Castro-Fields return for no gain to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20INT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2178% → 76%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
78.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Tommy Stevens for 9 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+8
78.6%
Mark Allen run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
78.4%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Dontae Wilson for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 35 Tommy Stevens fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+35
75.7%
Saeed Blacknall 35 Yd pass from Tommy Stevens (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3832% → 54%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.5%
Aaron Winchester run for no gain to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
67.6%
Aaron Winchester run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
67.6%
Aaron Winchester pass incomplete to Penny HartSimilar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+27
45.9%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 41 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 27 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:2250% → 68%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
50.2%
Miles Sanders run for no gain to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
49.3%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Brandon PolkSimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
68.3%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Miles SandersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23INT
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 3:08
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
66.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 36 yds, downed at the GeoSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24INT
13 plays · 45 yds · 6:5938% → 62%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
62.5%
Taz Bateman run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-1
61.4%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+11
61.0%
Aaron Winchester run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
58.1%
Taz Bateman run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+6
55.1%
Aaron Winchester run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
53.7%
Taz Bateman run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
47.5%
Taz Bateman run for 11 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
45.6%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+4
43.9%
Taz Bateman run for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+11
42.4%
Taz Bateman run for 11 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
39.7%
Taz Bateman run for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-2
38.4%
Aaron Winchester run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-6
37.6%
Aaron Winchester sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 31 Aaron Winchester fumbled, forced by Daniel Joseph, recovered by PnSt Yetur Gross-Matos , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:3445% → 48%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
44.9%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 8 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+12
47.3%
Tommy Stevens run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
47.6%
Billy Fessler pass complete to Jonathan Holland for 8 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+41
47.6%
Andre Robinson 41 Yd Run (Tyler Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:4167% → 91%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
33.1%
Demarcus Kirk run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
32.0%
Penny Hart run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
29.2%
Taz Bateman run for no gain to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+10
9.3%
Oliver Holdenson punt for 38 yds , Mark Allen returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Garrett Taylor) to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:5910% → 9%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
9.6%
Nick Eury run for 4 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
9.5%
Mark Allen run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
9.3%
Billy Fessler pass incomplete to Cody HodgensSimilar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
8.6%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 45 yds, downed at the GeoSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28PUNT
13 plays · 20 yds · 4:5293% → 98%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
7.3%
Taz Bateman run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 2
OWN 22
-7
6.2%
Taz Bateman run for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+15
4.6%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Ari Werts for 15 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
4.3%
Aaron Winchester run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
3.6%
Aaron Winchester run for 3 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
3.3%
Aaron Winchester run for no gain to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+27
2.6%
Aaron Winchester run for 17 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-8
2.5%
Taz Bateman run for 2 yds to the PnSt 20 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 30Similar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 18
OPP 30
-2
2.4%
Aaron Winchester run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 20
OPP 32
-3
2.2%
Aaron Winchester sacked by Antonio Shelton and Daniel Joseph for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 23
OPP 35
+22
2.2%
Aaron Winchester pass complete to Jonathan Ifedi for 22 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+31
1.9%
Brandon Wright 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29MISSED FG
1 play · 42 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
2.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+97.6
TD · Q3 4:06
Oliver Holdenson punt for 41 yds , DeAndre Thompkins returns for 27 yds to the GeoSt 46
-21.8
TD · Q4 6:41
Oliver Holdenson punt for 38 yds , Mark Allen returns for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Garrett Taylor) to the PnSt 36
-19.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com