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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:55 · Freddie Holly III run for 3 yds to the Hawa 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:16: Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 26 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:52: Dru Brown pass complete to Diocemy Saint Juste for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK) — HAW win probability +2.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:00: Demetric Felton run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:41: Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 9 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:34: Dru Brown pass intercepted for a TD Darnay Holmes return for 30 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
- Q1 15:00HAW 4th & 10 at UCLA 34, tiedClose callPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.7%−<0.130% to convertField goal6.7%47% to makePuntTheir call6.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:17HAW 4th & 12 at UCLA 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.123% to convertField goalTheir call8.4%51% to makePunt8.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:54HAW 4th & 22 at HAW 29, down 14Close callWent for it · 7.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.7%−0.87% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.5%average punt
- Q2 0:38HAW 4th & 10 at UCLA 24, down 28Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.628% to convertField goal1.2%68% to makePunt-0.8%−2.1average punt
- Q4 15:00HAW 4th & 22 at HAW 44, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 11:40HAW 4th & 7 at UCLA 7, down 42Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.128% to convertField goal0.1%91% to makePunt-0.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 5:37UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 43, up 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8HAW made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 6:43UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:16UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:52HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.0%97% to makeGo for two10.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:00UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:41UCLA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:34UCLA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:03UCLA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:01HAW Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:49UCLA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:40UCLA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:44HAW Touchdown, down 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 41 yds · 0:005% → 5%
UCLADrive 2TD8 plays · 99 yds · 3:2194% → 94%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+18
93.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 18 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
93.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 9 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
93.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 12 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
94.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 4 yds to the Hawa 25Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+25
93.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 25 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3MISSED FG10 plays · 56 yds · 3:226% → 7%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
93.7%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (13 Yards) to the Hawa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+37
93.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Kaiwi Chung for 37 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-1
93.3%
Dru Brown pass complete to Kalakaua Timoteo for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD7 plays · 68 yds · 2:0193% → 94%
Q1 3:17
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+9
93.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Starks for 9 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+15
93.3%
Rosen, Josh pass incomplete to Andrews, Darren (HENDERSON, T.), PENALTY UH pass interference (HENDERSON, T.) 15 yards to the UH37, 1ST DOWN UCLA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
94.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 26 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:246% → 9%
Q1 1:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
93.6%
Dru Brown pass complete to Metuisela 'Unga for 14 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
93.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to Marcus Armstrong-Brown for 9 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+10
93.4%
[S], BROWN, Dru pass incomplete to 'UNGA, M., PENALTY UCLA holding (Johnson, Mossi) 10 yards to the UCLA24, 1ST DOWN UH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
93.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 14 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to Diocemy Saint Juste for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD12 plays · 73 yds · 4:4692% → 94%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
91.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 19 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+24
92.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 24 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+16
92.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 16 yds to the Hawa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
92.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 7DOWNS9 plays · 21 yds · 0:006% → 6%
UCLADrive 8TD4 plays · 48 yds · 1:0594% → 98%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+39
93.8%
Caleb Wilson pass complete to Nate Starks for 39 yds to the Hawa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Theo Howard, broken up by Manu Hudson-RasmussenSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 9 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
99.3%
Dru Brown pass intercepted for a TD Darnay Holmes return for 30 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10DOWNS13 plays · 51 yds · 1:561% → 1%
Q2 2:34
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
99.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 6 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
99.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 14 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+15
99.2%
[S], PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Riley, Keyon) 15 yards to the UCLA24, 1ST DOWN UH, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-7
99.3%
Josh Rosen sacked by Meffy Koloamatangi for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12TD7 plays · 73 yds · 1:5099% → 100%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
99.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 15 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
99.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 12 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
99.4%
Josh Rosen sacked by David Manoa for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 44 Josh Rosen fumbled, recovered by UCLA Nate Starks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+5
99.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Christian Pabico for 5 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+17
99.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Christian Pabico for 17 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.6%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 34 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13TD14 plays · 79 yds · 5:561% → 1%
Q3 12:57
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+16
99.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to Ammon Barker for 16 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Dru Brown pass incomplete to Metuisela 'Unga, broken up by Keyon RileySimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+6
99.4%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 6 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+21
99.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to Keelan Ewaliko for 21 yds to the UCLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.5%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD8 plays · 41 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.8%
Nate Starks run for 11 yds to the Hawa 30 UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Eldridge Massington) to the Hawa 40Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+20
99.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Starks for 20 yds to the Hawa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
99.8%
HAWAII Penalty, roughing passer (Solomon Matautia) to the Hawa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15PUNT14 plays · 19 yds · 4:490% → 0%
Q3 4:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
99.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 14 yds to the Hawa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 5
50
+6
99.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 6 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-11
99.8%
Dru Brown pass complete to John Ursua for 4 yds to the Hawa 40 HAWAII Penalty, personal foul (Dejon Allen) to the Hawa 45Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 17
OWN 49
-10
99.8%
[S], BROWN, Dru rush for 2 yards to the UCLA49 (Wade, Rick), PENALTY UH holding (ELI, Asotui) 10 yards to the UH39, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16TD7 plays · 89 yds · 3:13100% → 100%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
99.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 16 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
99.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Christian Pabico for 25 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
99.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 13 yds to the Hawa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 2 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 68 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+66
99.9%
Diocemy Saint Juste run for 66 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
99.9%
Dru Brown sacked by Osa Odighizuwa for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 11:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+10
99.9%
[S], BROWN, Dru pass incomplete to TIMOTEO, K. (Woods, Josh), PENALTY UCLA personal foul (Woods, Josh) 10 yards to the UCLA9, 1ST DOWN UH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dakota Torres for 2 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18SF3 plays · -7 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
HAWDrive 19TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:540% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
HAWDrive 21END OF GAME5 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
100.0%
Cole Brownholtz pass complete to Kade Greeley for 7 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:41
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 9 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q2 11:52
Dru Brown pass complete to Diocemy Saint Juste for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Trifonovitch KICK)
-2.2
TD · Q2 2:34
Dru Brown pass intercepted for a TD Darnay Holmes return for 30 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+1.6