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ARST

Arkansas State 36 at Nebraska 43

NEB
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDFGFGTDTDTDFGSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick Edwards
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:45: Blake Mack 3 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +6.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Sawyer Williams 39 Yd Field Goal — ARST win probability +4.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:14: Tre Bryant 1 Yd Run (Drew Brown Kick) — NEB win probability +8.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:25: De'Mornay Pierson-El 8 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Drew Brown Kick) — NEB win probability +6.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:47: Kendrick Edwards 3 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick) — ARST win probability +14.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 19 at ARST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52NEB 4th & 2 at ARST 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:52ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:07NEB 4th & 24 at NEB 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 7 at NEB 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:02NEB 4th & 11 at ARST 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:14ARST 4th & 8 at NEB 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:44NEB 4th & 22 at NEB 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−3.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:15ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 11, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:21NEB 4th & 8 at ARST 38, up 8
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:27ARST 4th & 10 at NEB 14, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:26NEB 4th & 5 at ARST 40, up 12
    Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−1.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:46NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:07ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:53NEB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:12ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:32NEB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:57NEB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:45ARST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:14NEB Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:25NEB Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:47ARST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.2%
Chris Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
82.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-11
82.2%
Justice Hansen run for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 11 Justice Hansen fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Justice HansenSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+5
82.2%
Hansen, Justice pass complete to Mack, Blake for 9 yards to the A-ST20, PENALTY NEB offside defense (F. Akinmoladun) 5 yards to the A-ST16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
82.2%
Justice Hansen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
82.2%
Cody Grace punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:1982% → 81%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.9%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete, broken up by Trent Ellis-BrewerSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
81.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 8 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
81.9%
Tre Bryant run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
81.9%
Tre Bryant run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
81.9%
Tre Bryant run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
81.9%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+5
81.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 5 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+21
81.3%
Drew Brown 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.1%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-12
81.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, clipping (-15 Yards) to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+10
81.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 10 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
81.3%
Cody Grace punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT TD
5 plays · -14 yds · 2:3581% → 77%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
80.5%
Tre Bryant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 22Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-10
80.5%
Tre Bryant rush up middle for 5 yards to the NEB27, PENALTY NEB holding (Nick Gates) 10 yards to the NEB12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 21
OWN 12
-7
80.5%
Tanner Lee sacked by Caleb Caston for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 5Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 28
OWN 5
+4
80.2%
Tre Bryant run for 4 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 24
OWN 9
+63
77.4%
Blaise Taylor 63 Yd Punt Return (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 2:4120% → 25%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
80.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 9 yds to the ArkSt 22 NEBRASKA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+9
80.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 9 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
80.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 7 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
79.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 4 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
79.6%
Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+11
79.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 11 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
79.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 7 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+7
79.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 7 yds to the Neb 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
75.4%
Chris Murray 29 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4077% → 80%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Luke McNitt for 11 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
76.9%
Tre Bryant run for 8 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+12
77.5%
De'Mornay Pierson-El run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
79.6%
Stanley Morgan Jr. 44 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:3221% → 21%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.8%
Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
78.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 10 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
78.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-5
77.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+8
78.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 8 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
77.5%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
77.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
78.6%
Cody Grace punt for 38 yds, downed at the Neb 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 3:4678% → 83%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
77.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 12 yds to the Neb 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
78.0%
Tre Bryant run for 12 yds to the Neb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
78.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
50
+4
79.1%
Tre Bryant run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
79.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
79.2%
Tre Bryant run for 24 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
79.5%
Mikale Wilbon run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
82.9%
Mikale Wilbon 7 Yd Run (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10INT
10 plays · 64 yds · 0:0018% → 20%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
82.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 11 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
81.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+14
81.3%
Warren Wand run for 14 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
81.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
81.1%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+16
81.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 16 yds to the Neb 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
80.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 17 yds to the Neb 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
80.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jamal Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
80.3%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Tyrin Ferguson return for no gain to the Neb 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
81.7%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:0918% → 27%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
81.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 18 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
80.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 12 yds to the Neb 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
80.2%
Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the Neb 23Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+1
80.0%
Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the Neb 22Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
80.8%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 3 yds to the Neb 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
80.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
80.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for no gain to the Neb 19Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+10
81.2%
Hansen, Justice pass incomplete to McInnis, Justin, PENALTY NEB roughing passer (Carlos Davis) 10 yards to the NEB9, 1ST DOWN A-ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
80.1%
Warren Wand run for 6 yds to the Neb 3Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.3%
Blake Mack 3 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:4377% → 77%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
77.1%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+8
78.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 8 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
78.4%
Tanner Lee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
78.1%
Tre Bryant run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+26
78.1%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 26 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
79.4%
Tre Bryant run for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
79.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
78.3%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD Spielman, broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+41
77.0%
Drew Brown 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 1:0223% → 30%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
77.0%
Warren Wand run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
75.7%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
75.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
76.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 8 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+9
76.6%
Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
76.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 5 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+11
74.6%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 11 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+39
69.8%
Sawyer Williams 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:5075% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
75.0%
Tre Bryant run for 4 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
75.7%
Tre Bryant run for 4 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
75.7%
Tre Bryant run for 7 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
76.7%
Tre Bryant run for 35 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
77.7%
Tre Bryant run for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+19
76.7%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 19 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.7%
Luke McNitt run for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q3 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.9%
Tre Bryant 1 Yd Run (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct ( Yards) to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 11 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
81.5%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+10
80.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 10 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
80.0%
Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
79.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
80.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Joshua KaluSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 3
OPP 42
-5
81.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Caleb Caston) to the Neb 47Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
82.4%
Cody Grace punt for 37 yds, downed at the Neb 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
83.3%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Tyler Hoppes for 13 yds to the Neb 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
83.5%
Tre Bryant run for 11 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
83.7%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by B.J. EdmondsSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
83.5%
NEBRASKA Penalty, false start (Nick Gates) to the Neb 29Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+11
83.2%
De'Mornay Pierson-El run for 11 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+9
84.2%
Tanner Lee pass complete to JD Spielman for 9 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
85.1%
Tre Bryant run for 7 yds to the NEBRASKA 44 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive holding (Stanley Morgan Jr.) to the Neb 46Similar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 13
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-10
84.3%
Tre Bryant rush up middle for 10 yards to the A-ST44, PENALTY NEB holding (Cole Conrad) 10 yards to the NEB36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 23
OWN 36
-3
83.6%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Mikale Wilbon for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 33Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 26
OWN 33
+4
82.5%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Mikale Wilbon for 4 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 22
OWN 37
0
82.3%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 53 yds, downed at the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
83.4%
Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+1
83.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 1 yd to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 16
-5
84.3%
Justice Hansen sacked by Dedrick Young II for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 9
OWN 11
+1
85.0%
Cody Grace punt for 55 yds , Stanley Morgan Jr. returns for 1 yd to the Neb 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.7%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
87.8%
Tre Bryant run for 9 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
88.0%
Tre Bryant run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 9
50
+10
88.0%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 10 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
88.2%
Tre Bryant run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
88.1%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete, broken up by Justin CliftonSimilar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
87.4%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
86.5%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 34 yds, downed at the ArkSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20INT
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0514% → 14%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
86.3%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 9 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+11
86.2%
Warren Wand run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
86.0%
Justice Hansen pass intercepted Joshua Kalu return for no gain to the Neb 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:0789% → 96%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
89.0%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
89.1%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+35
88.4%
Tanner Lee pass complete to JD Spielman for 35 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
89.5%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Tyler HoppesSimilar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
89.5%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
96.1%
De'Mornay Pierson-El 8 Yd pass from Tanner Lee (Drew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 2:536% → 6%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
94.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 4 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
94.1%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 8 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
94.0%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Lanard Bonner) to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+38
94.5%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 38 yds to the Neb 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
92.7%
Jamal Jones run for no gain to the Neb 25Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
93.2%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Christian Booker for 11 yds to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
92.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris Murray, broken up by Aaron WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
92.7%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
93.8%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Chris MurraySimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
93.7%
Sawyer Williams 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
95.1%
Tre Bryant run for 7 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
95.2%
Stanley Morgan Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 49Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+6
94.9%
Tanner Lee pass complete to Mikale Wilbon for 6 yds Mikale Wilbon fumbled, forced by Darreon Jackson, recovered by Neb Mikale Wilbon for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
95.2%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
95.2%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr., broken up by Blaise TaylorSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
95.0%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
94.4%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArkSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24SF
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:515% → 3%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
95.3%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+2
95.4%
Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
96.6%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
97.0%
Tre Bryant run for 2 yds to the Neb 24Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
96.9%
Tre Bryant run for 4 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
97.1%
Tanner Lee pass incomplete to JD SpielmanSimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
96.7%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:313% → 18%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
97.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
97.0%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar BaylessSimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+9
97.0%
Justice Hansen run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
50
+7
96.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Chris Murray for 7 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
96.6%
Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
96.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Christian BookerSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
96.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 11 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
96.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Jamal Jones for 2 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+11
96.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 11 yds to the Neb 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
96.4%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 12 yds to the Neb 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.4%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnisSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.9%
Kendrick Edwards 3 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 45 yds · 0:4413% → 15%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
86.9%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Blake Mack for 12 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
83.6%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Christian BookerSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
84.2%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren WandSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+21
87.0%
Justice Hansen pass complete to Kendrick Edwards for 11 yds to the Neb 21 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul (Antonio Reed) to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
84.1%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
84.9%
Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Kendrick EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.1
TD · Q4 0:47
Kendrick Edwards 3 Yd pass from Justice Hansen (Sawyer Williams Kick)
-14.5
TD · Q3 11:14
Tre Bryant 1 Yd Run (Drew Brown Kick)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com