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NCSU

NC State 14 at Notre Dame 35

ND
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:31 · Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense+12.8Pregame prior+7.0Score differential+5.2Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:48: Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 15 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:37: Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +7.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:30: Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 11 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +8.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:05: Ryan Finley pass intercepted for a TD Julian Love return for 69 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +12.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:11: Josh Adams run for 77 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +5.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:45ND 4th & 14 at ND 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:05ND 4th & 20 at ND 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:47NCSU 4th & 3 at ND 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:34ND 4th & 15 at ND 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:48NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:28NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:13ND 4th & 8 at ND 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00NCSU 4th & 16 at ND 41, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−0.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    25.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:31NCSU 4th & 1 at ND 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−2.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−9.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:53ND 4th & 1 at ND 16, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:27NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:56NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:29ND 4th & 10 at NCSU 36, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:33NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:55ND 4th & 9 at NCSU 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:40NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:36ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:48NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:37ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:30ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:05ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:11ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0069% → 68%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
68.6%
Josh Adams run for 21 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
68.6%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-6
68.6%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Kentavius Street for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-1
68.4%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Bradley Chubb for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 14
OWN 38
+11
68.2%
Tyler Newsome punt for 45 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for 11 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2832% → 32%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
68.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
68.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
68.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen GriffinSimilar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+47
68.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 47 yds , Chris Finke returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT TD
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4868% → 66%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
68.3%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 14Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+4
68.1%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 13
OWN 18
-5
67.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Robert Hainsey) to the NDame 13Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 18
OWN 13
-2
67.8%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Josh Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 20
OWN 11
0
66.0%
Tyler Newsome punt blocked by James Smith-Williams, recovered by Germaine Pratt in the endzone for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:1467% → 69%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+35
66.6%
Josh Adams run for 35 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
68.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Durham Smythe for 25 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:2832% → 33%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
67.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 3 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
67.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
67.8%
Ryan Finley run for 2 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
67.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-5
66.9%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Tyler Jones) to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
67.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
66.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+13
67.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 13 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
66.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
66.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+6
66.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 6 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
66.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 32 yds, downed at the NDame 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:5667% → 66%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
67.3%
Josh Adams run for 9 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+15
67.4%
Wimbush, Brandon pass incomplete to Mack, Alize, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Kidd-Glass, Tim) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
67.5%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
66.7%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+1
66.2%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 10
OWN 30
-5
65.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (John Shannon) to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+46
65.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 36 yds, downed at the NOTREDAME 39 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matt McKay) to the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:3234% → 41%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
65.8%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
65.8%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Jakobi Meyers) to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
66.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+18
66.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 18 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+42
64.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 42 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
63.5%
Jaylen Samuels run for no gain to the NDame 15Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
63.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Dylan AutenriethSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
58.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 15 yds for a TD, (Carson Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
17 plays · 72 yds · 4:4360% → 68%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
59.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+4
60.5%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
60.2%
Dexter Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+1
61.0%
Dexter Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
60.6%
Dexter Williams run for no gain to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
60.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. BrownSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+20
59.0%
Brandon Wimbush run for 20 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
61.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 9 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-1
61.2%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+14
60.2%
Josh Adams run for 14 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
60.9%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
60.8%
Wimbush, Brandon pass incomplete to St. Brown, Equanimeous, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Alston, Johnathan) 3 yards to the NCSTATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.6%
Josh Adams run for 1 yd to the NCSt 1Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.4%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (B.J. Hill) to the NCSt 1Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
59.9%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 3Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
67.6%
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3236% → 36%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-4
64.1%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 9Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+1
64.5%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the NCSt 10Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 13
OWN 10
0
64.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 13
OWN 10
0
64.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 50 yds, downed at the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:1067% → 76%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
66.7%
Brandon Wimbush run for 5 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+15
67.3%
Wimbush, Brandon pass incomplete to St. Brown, Equanimeous, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference 15 yards to the NCSTATE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
67.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 4 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+5
67.6%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
67.3%
Josh Adams run for 5 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
68.1%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
68.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+11
67.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Durham Smythe for 11 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
75.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 11 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:4726% → 26%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
73.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 24 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
71.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Cole CookSimilar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
72.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
72.4%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
73.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 40 yds, downed at the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0273% → 72%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
73.2%
Josh Adams run for 3 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+16
73.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Durham Smythe for 16 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
73.5%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
73.4%
Josh Adams run for no gain to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
72.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Alize MackSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
71.7%
Tyler Newsome punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gavin Locklear at the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 36 yds · 2:0627% → 23%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
73.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 14 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
73.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
50
+15
71.1%
Finley, Ryan pass incomplete to Samuels, Jaylen, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Crawford, Shaun) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
69.2%
Finley, Ryan pass complete to Meyers, Jakobi for 6 yards to the NOTREDAME29, PENALTY NCSTATE ineligible downfield on pass (Prescod, Terronne) 5 yards to the NOTREDAME40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
71.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+5
72.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jerod Fernandez for 5 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-6
73.0%
Ryan Finley sacked by Andrew Trumbetti and Drue Tranquill for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
76.8%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14INT TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:4226% → 17%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
73.8%
Jaylen Samuels run for 12 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
73.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 9 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-3
71.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+20
73.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 20 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
71.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
71.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NDame 42Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+69
83.5%
Ryan Finley pass intercepted for a TD Julian Love return for 69 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:1717% → 16%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
82.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
82.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+8
83.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 8 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
82.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 14 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
82.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 1 yd to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+9
82.4%
Ryan Finley run for a loss of 17 yards to the NDame 22 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Jaylen Samuels Jaylen Samuels run for 9 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+16
84.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 16 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 1
OPP 6
-1
84.5%
Jaylen Samuels run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2288% → 88%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
88.2%
Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+6
88.2%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+2
88.1%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
87.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Gavin Locklear at the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1314% → 13%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
85.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
86.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 3 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
86.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
87.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:1290% → 96%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
89.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+77
95.7%
Josh Adams run for 77 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:104% → 4%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.3%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+3
96.2%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
96.4%
A.J. Cole III punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 54 yds · 5:1198% → 99%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
97.7%
Deon McIntosh run for 3 yds to the NDame 13Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+8
97.7%
Josh Adams run for 8 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
98.2%
McIntosh, Deon rush for loss of 5 yards to the NOTREDAME16, PENALTY NCSTATE illegal use of hands (Hill, B.J.) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.4%
Deon McIntosh run for 4 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+9
98.5%
Deon McIntosh run for 9 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
98.6%
Josh Adams run for 6 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-4
98.7%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+13
98.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 13 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
98.9%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 6
OPP 32
-4
99.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Robert Hainsey) to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
99.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Durham SmytheSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
98.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 28 yds, downed at the NCSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:422% → 1%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
98.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
98.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Reggie Gallaspy IISimilar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
98.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 7
OWN 11
+15
98.6%
A.J. Cole III punt for 52 yds , Chris Finke returns for 15 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Kevin StephersonSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.1%
Josh Adams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-1
99.2%
Josh Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
99.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:081% → 1%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
98.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 2 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 8
OWN 22
-3
98.8%
A.J. Cole III punt for 56 yds , Chris Finke returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24END OF GAME
16 plays · 76 yds · 8:2099% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
99.2%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
99.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Miles BoykinSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+11
99.3%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chase Claypool for 11 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.3%
Dexter Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+9
99.4%
Dexter Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.5%
Deon McIntosh run for 7 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+10
99.5%
Deon McIntosh run for 10 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
99.5%
Deon McIntosh run for 10 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.6%
Deon McIntosh run for 9 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
99.7%
Deon McIntosh run for no gain to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
99.7%
Deon McIntosh run for 2 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.8%
Deon McIntosh run for 6 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+3
99.8%
Deon McIntosh run for 3 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+4
99.8%
Dexter Williams run for 4 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:05
Ryan Finley pass intercepted for a TD Julian Love return for 69 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
+12
TD · Q2 5:30
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Kevin Stepherson for 11 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 9:37
Brandon Wimbush run for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK)
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com