Try the model
FSU

Florida State 38 at Florida 22

FLA
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:47 · Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Lamical Perine
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Pregame prior−11.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:03: Mark Thompson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +4.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 14:24: James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 21 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:46: Feleipe Franks pass intercepted for a TD Levonta Taylor return for 18 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:29: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 4 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro PAT BLOCKED) — FLA win probability +6.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:21: Cam Akers run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 7
  1. Q1 12:47FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:48FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:29FSU 4th & 19 at FLA 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:12FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:47FSU 4th & 7 at FLA 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.0%−5.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:51FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:38FSU 4th & 3 at FLA 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:06FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 40, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:27FSU 4th & 12 at FLA 23, up 11
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.6 ptsPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    71.0%
    70% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:34FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−2.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:12FSU 4th & 7 at FLA 15, up 11
    Numbers favored field goal by 7.1 ptsPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    74.6%
    83% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−7.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:40FSU 4th & 4 at FLA 39, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−1.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:21FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:52FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 33, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:15FSU 4th & 6 at FLA 18, up 22
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%
    79% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:03FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:24FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:46FSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:29FLA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:21FSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:33FSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:37FLA Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4039% → 39%
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
38.8%
Lamical Perine run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
50
0
39.1%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
50
0
39.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Lamical PerineSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 10
50
+8
39.2%
Feleipe Franks run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
39.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Lamical PerineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:5361% → 61%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
39.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
39.3%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 2
50
+1
39.5%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the Fla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3FUMBLE TD
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
38.6%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Brian Burns for a loss of 4 yards Feleipe Franks fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Jacob Pugh , return for 16 yds, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:3339% → 38%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
38.5%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 18Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
38.6%
Brandon Powell run for 5 yds to the Fla 23Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+15
38.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 15 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
38.6%
Lamical Perine run for 8 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
39.1%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+6
38.9%
Lamical Perine run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
39.0%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+4
38.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 4 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
38.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
38.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3463% → 63%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
37.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
37.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+4
37.2%
James Blackman pass intercepted Duke Dawson return for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:4238% → 42%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
38.2%
Mark Thompson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+11
38.2%
Mark Thompson run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
42.0%
Mark Thompson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:5960% → 57%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
40.2%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+16
40.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 16 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
40.5%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
40.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 11
OPP 41
-5
41.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 16
OPP 36
-3
41.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 19
OPP 33
0
42.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 60 yds, downed at the Fla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:0643% → 43%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
42.8%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 6Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+6
42.9%
Feleipe Franks run for 6 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
42.7%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Levonta Taylor return for no gain to the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:3160% → 65%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
40.2%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 21Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
40.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+21
35.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 21 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5237% → 35%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
36.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 11 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
37.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
36.9%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-7
36.4%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Stanford Samuels III for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 15
OWN 27
+3
35.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 40 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 3 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:4265% → 68%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
34.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 3 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+29
34.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 29 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
34.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 13 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
33.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-5
33.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 20Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+16
34.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 16 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
33.5%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
33.4%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
32.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q2 7:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
31.9%
Ricky Aguayo 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3432% → 30%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
32.2%
Mark Thompson run for no gain to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-3
31.6%
Dre Massey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
30.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
30.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 29 yds, downed at the FlaSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0570% → 69%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
30.2%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
30.2%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
30.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
31.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 34 yds, downed at the Fla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14INT TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4331% → 23%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
30.9%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 16Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+18
23.0%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted for a TD Levonta Taylor return for 18 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 2:5123% → 27%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
23.1%
Mark Thompson run for 14 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
24.2%
Mark Thompson run for 6 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
24.0%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+10
23.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 10 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
23.6%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+11
22.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Dre Massey for 11 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
22.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+15
21.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 15 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 9 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 1
OWN 16
0
20.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Dre MasseySimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+12
20.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Dre Massey for 12 yds to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 4
OWN 4
+4
26.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 4 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
24.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1873% → 72%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
26.7%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
26.7%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
26.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 12
OPP 23
0
27.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 53 yds, downed at the Fla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:4328% → 24%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
27.6%
Mark Thompson run for 4 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+9
27.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mark Thompson for 9 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
27.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to DeAndre GoolsbySimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
27.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-5
24.4%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Derrick Nnadi for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 16
OWN 31
+3
23.6%
Johnny Townsend punt for 60 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 3 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1676% → 76%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
23.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-4
22.4%
James Blackman sacked by Jabari Zuniga and Cece Jefferson for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
23.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+11
22.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+17
24.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 56 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 17 yds to the Fla 46 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the FlaSt 39 (D. Jackson EJECTED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20FG
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5325% → 25%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
25.3%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
24.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 11 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
24.1%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
23.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Lamical PerineSimilar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
21.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+45
25.1%
Eddy Pineiro 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:0078% → 78%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
22.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
22.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+15
22.8%
FLORIDA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
22.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 12 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
22.3%
James Blackman run for 1 yd to the Fla 44Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
21.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+5
21.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Fla 39Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
21.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
22.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Chauncey Gardner Jr. at the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:0924% → 22%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
23.9%
Mark Thompson run for 4 yds to the Fla 15Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-3
23.1%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Josh Sweat for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 12Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+23
21.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 23 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
23.4%
Brandon Powell run for no gain to the Fla 35Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
21.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+5
20.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
22.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 34 yds, downed at the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:4682% → 94%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
17.8%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-3
17.7%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+13
17.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 13 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
16.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-9
15.1%
James Blackman sacked by Jeremiah Moon and Kyree Campbell for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 19
OPP 46
+39
15.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Ermon Lane for 39 yds to the Fla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
14.1%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
5.7%
Cam Akers run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+44
10.1%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Matthew Thomas return for 29 yds to the FLORIDA 1 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Matthew Thomas) to the Fla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:1594% → 99%
Q4 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
-3
5.6%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 19Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 13
OPP 19
-1
5.4%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 20Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+15
5.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 15 yds to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
4.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the Fla 2Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
4.8%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 3Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 3 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:362% → 1%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.6%
Mark Thompson run for 11 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Mark ThompsonSimilar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
1.3%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-3
1.2%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Derrick Nnadi and Brian Burns for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
1.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1599% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
0.6%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
0.6%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
0.5%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-5
0.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 6
OPP 18
0
0.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 54 yds, downed at the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 28TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:201% → 2%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
0.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 5 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
0.9%
Adarius Lemons run for 8 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
0.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
0.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 15 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
0.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 8 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 2
OWN 19
0
0.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+13
0.7%
Adarius Lemons run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 6
OWN 6
0
0.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+6
2.3%
Brandon Powell 6 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
1.2%
Amir Rasul run for 1 yd to the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:21
Cam Akers run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q2 3:46
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted for a TD Levonta Taylor return for 18 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 0:29
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 4 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro PAT BLOCKED)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com