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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:45 · Johnny Townsend punt for 31 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 1:10: Eddy Pineiro 26 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +1.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 7:32: Eddy Pineiro 50 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +1.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:49: Feleipe Franks pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 11 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +7.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Eddy Pineiro 50 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +4.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:36: Feleipe Franks pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 13 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 10:27FLA 4th & 7 at UAB 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snapGo for it75.7%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call75.8%72% to makePunt75.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:34UAB 4th & 9 at UAB 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snapGo for it24.1%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.3%average punt
- Q1 7:45FLA 4th & 5 at UAB 47, up 3Close callPunted · 75.5% before the snapGo for it75.5%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:10FLA 4th & 6 at UAB 9, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snapGo for it74.0%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call74.2%89% to makePunt72.0%−2.2average punt
- Q2 15:00UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 44, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it23.6%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.1%average punt
- Q2 7:32FLA 4th & 8 at UAB 32, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snapGo for it76.9%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call77.0%51% to makePunt76.3%−0.7average punt
- Q2 5:49UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 34, down 16Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it15.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:57FLA 4th & 1 at UAB 41, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.4%70% to convertField goal86.0%−1.432% to makePunt86.0%−1.4average punt
- Q2 0:00FLA 4th & 11 at UAB 32, up 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snapGo for it86.7%−0.527% to convertField goalTheir call87.2%51% to makePunt86.8%−0.4average punt
- Q3 15:00UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 25, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it9.5%−1.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q3 13:38FLA 4th & 12 at FLA 40, up 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snapGo for it91.6%−1.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q3 12:02UAB 4th & 28 at UAB 21, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it6.6%−3.16% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.6%average punt
- Q4 11:00FLA 4th & 4 at UAB 25, up 26Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%−0.166% to makePunt98.8%−0.8average punt
- Q4 10:54UAB 4th & 8 at UAB 23, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:57FLA 4th & 18 at midfield, up 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 1:14FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 35, up 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UAB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 5:49FLA Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.4%97% to makeGo for two84.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:36FLA Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:00FLA Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:44UAB Touchdown, down 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%97% to makeGo for two0.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFLADrive 1FG11 plays · 45 yds · 4:3380% → 80%
UABDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 1:4721% → 21%
Q1 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
79.1%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for 6 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-2
78.6%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Cece Jefferson for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 43Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+10
79.1%
Joel Dixon punt for 42 yds , Freddie Swain returns for 10 yds to the Fla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT11 plays · 28 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
UABDrive 4FUMBLE1 play · -3 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
78.1%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 13 Spencer Brown fumbled, forced by Vosean Joseph, recovered by Fla Jabari ZunigaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5FG5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0779% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 1:0220% → 20%
Q1 1:02
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
79.7%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 2 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+8
79.8%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 8 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-3
79.3%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Taven Bryan for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7FG11 plays · 48 yds · 4:4780% → 82%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Dre Massey, broken up by Darious WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+19
79.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Moral Stephens for 19 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+11
80.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 11 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
FLADrive 9TD2 plays · 13 yds · 0:4783% → 91%
UABDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11FG18 plays · 33 yds · 3:5791% → 95%
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
92.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 4 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
92.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 14 yds to the UAB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
91.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 8 yds to the UAB 23Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 2
OPP 23
-9
90.7%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Chris Woolbright for a loss of 9 yards to the UAB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
FLADrive 13PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
UABDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
92.2%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 15 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+6
91.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 6 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+1
92.1%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 1 yd to the UAB 38Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-17
92.1%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Antonneous Clayton for a loss of 17 yards to the UAB 21Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 28
OWN 21
+1
92.3%
Joel Dixon punt for 51 yds , Chauncey Gardner Jr. returns for 1 yd to the Fla 22 UAB Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:1495% → 99%
Q3 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+17
95.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Dre Massey for 17 yds to the UAB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
95.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Josh Hammond, broken up by Darious WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
99.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 13 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16FUMBLE5 plays · 53 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.3%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Logan Scott for 15 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
99.3%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Jonathan Haden for 20 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+18
99.2%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 18 yds Andre Wilson fumbled, forced by Rayshad Jackson, recovered by Fla Shawn DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17TD9 plays · 78 yds · 4:1499% → 100%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.2%
Thompson,M. rush over right end for 1 yard to the UF23, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UAB offside (MOFOR, F.) 5 yards to the UF27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 11 yds to the UAB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18TD2 plays · 74 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
99.7%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 74 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19FG9 plays · 50 yds · 3:44100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Logan Scott, broken up by Shawn DavisSimilar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 2 yds to the UAB 23Similar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Joel Dixon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Freddie Swain at the Fla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
UABDrive 22INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.9%
A.J. Erdely pass intercepted Brad Stewart return for no gain to the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
99.9%
Lemons,A. rush over left end for 62 yards to the UAB0, clock 04:12, PENALTY UF holding (Taylor,Ja.) 10 yards to the UF28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
Adarius Lemons run for 12 yds to the Fla 41 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyrie Cleveland) to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+36
100.0%
Johnny Townsend punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the FLORIDA 14 FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Johnny Townsend) to the UAB 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:49
Feleipe Franks pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 11 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)
+7.7
FG · Q2 0:00
Eddy Pineiro 50 yd FG GOOD
+4.8
TD · Q3 5:36
Feleipe Franks pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 13 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)
+3.5