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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreTA&M score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:52 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:41: Lamical Perine run for 15 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +11.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:12: Kellen Mond run for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +15.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:54: Dre Massey 6 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Eddy Pineiro Kick) — FLA win probability +20.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:35: Daniel LaCamera 43 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +11.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:58: Daniel LaCamera 32 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +37.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11TA&M made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 15:00TA&M 4th & 15 at TA&M 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snapGo for it39.1%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.3%average punt
- Q1 7:47FLA 4th & 5 at TA&M 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snapGo for it60.8%−<0.138% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%86% to makePunt59.8%−1.1average punt
- Q1 7:47TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it38.3%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.4%average punt
- Q1 6:05FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 16, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snapGo for it60.4%−0.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.9%average punt
- Q1 2:08TA&M 4th & 4 at FLA 29, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snapGo for it38.6%48% to convertField goalTheir call38.4%−0.258% to makePunt36.4%−2.2average punt
- Q1 2:08FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 35, tiedClose callPunted · 60.2% before the snapGo for it60.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 15:00TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snapGo for it39.5%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.8%average punt
- Q2 11:13FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snapGo for it59.8%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.9%average punt
- Q2 10:25TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snapGo for it38.1%−0.824% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.9%average punt
- Q2 8:29FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snapGo for it59.9%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.3%average punt
- Q2 6:52TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snapGo for it37.9%−2.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.1%average punt
- Q2 2:04FLA 4th & 1 at TA&M 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.5%71% to convertField goal59.6%−1.980% to makePunt54.8%−6.7average punt
- Q2 1:41TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 34, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it30.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%−1.1average punt
- Q3 15:00FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snapGo for it69.7%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.3%average punt
- Q3 8:20FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snapGo for it58.1%−1.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.1%average punt
- Q3 6:53TA&M 4th & 26 at TA&M 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snapGo for it35.0%−6.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%average punt
- Q3 4:22FLA 4th & 7 at TA&M 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snapGo for it59.4%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.9%average punt
- Q3 3:05TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 27, tiedClose callPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it44.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.9%−0.6average punt
- Q4 12:24FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 26, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snapGo for it66.5%−3.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.3%average punt
- Q4 7:37TA&M 4th & 6 at FLA 7, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snapGo for it30.8%−2.732% to convertField goalTheir call33.5%91% to makePunt18.7%−14.8average punt
- Q4 6:35FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 36, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 6.2 ptsPunted · 63.6% before the snapGo for it65.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.2%−6.2average punt
- Q4 0:58TA&M 4th & 11 at FLA 15, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snapGo for it27.4%−29.124% to convertField goalTheir call56.5%83% to makePunt18.6%−37.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 1:41FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.7%97% to makeGo for two68.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:12TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.0%97% to makeGo for two38.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:54FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.2%97% to makeGo for two73.0%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2FG15 plays · 63 yds · 5:4964% → 64%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
63.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 8 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+12
63.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 12 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+20
63.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Malik Davis for 20 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
63.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 4 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
63.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Malik Davis for 2 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-5
63.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 20Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 13
OPP 20
+8
63.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 8 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
64.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 16 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
63.8%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Otaro Alaka for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5FG7 plays · 38 yds · 2:3336% → 38%
Q1 4:41
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+30
64.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Damion Ratley for 30 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4438% → 37%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
62.6%
Shane Tripucka punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8INT6 plays · 36 yds · 1:1863% → 64%
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+12
62.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 12 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
63.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 11 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.3%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted, touchback. Armani Watts return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.3%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted Jeawon Taylor return for no gain to the Fla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5663% → 61%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
61.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for no gain to the Fla 32Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
61.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 67 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 10 , Christian Kirk returns for 9 yds to the TexAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
62.9%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Micheal Clemons and Tyrel Dodson for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 35Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+7
61.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to T.J. McCoy for 7 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
61.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
FLADrive 14TD9 plays · 55 yds · 2:5864% → 74%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 9 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-10
69.4%
Kellen Mond rush up middle for 9 yards to the TAMU43 (Reese,D.), PENALTY TAMU holding (Koda Martin) 10 yards to the TAMU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
72.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 6 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
71.5%
Shane Tripucka punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16END OF HALF4 plays · 43 yds · 0:2271% → 74%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+32
71.1%
Malik Davis run for 32 yds to the FLORIDA 46 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
71.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 5 yds to the Fla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD7 plays · 55 yds · 1:3931% → 45%
FLADrive 19PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 2:4662% → 62%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
61.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 9 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
62.2%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Josh Hammond, broken up by Debione RenfroSimilar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+8
61.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 8 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-6
64.5%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Daylon Mack for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 38Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+5
61.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 5 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+36
61.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the FLORIDA 21 TEXAS A&M Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
57.7%
Kellen Mond rush over left tackle for 38 yards to the UF41 (Wilson,M.), PENALTY TAMU holding (Ryan McCollum) 10 yards to the TAMU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 16
OWN 15
-10
59.3%
Kellen Mond sacked by Taven Bryan for a loss of 10 yards to the TexAM 5Similar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 26
OWN 5
+9
61.4%
Shane Tripucka punt for 55 yds , Brandon Powell returns for 9 yds to the Fla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 61%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
64.8%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Armani Watts and Keeath Magee II for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 3:05
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+53
58.9%
Shane Tripucka punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the FLORIDA 29 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (9 Yards) to the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23TD5 plays · 90 yds · 1:5061% → 87%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
67.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, sideline interference (7 Yards) to the TexAM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24FG10 plays · 40 yds · 2:1922% → 29%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
78.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 40 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
76.2%
Kellen Mond post pass complete to Tanner Schorp for 10 yards to the UF0, clock 13:40, PENALTY TAMU ineligible downfield on pass (Christian Kirk) 5 yards to the UF15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
80.0%
Kellen Mond sacked by Taven Bryan and Jordan Sherit for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 20Similar
Q4 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
76.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Christian Kirk, broken up by Duke DawsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 71%
Q4 12:24
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+7
73.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 7 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-4
72.9%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Anthony Hines III for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 26Similar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+6
71.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 36 , Christian Kirk returns for 6 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26FG9 plays · 57 yds · 2:3729% → 39%
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+42
71.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Damion Ratley for 42 yds to the Fla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:5866% → 67%
TA&MDrive 28FG12 plays · 24 yds · 3:2243% → 85%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
56.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 4 yds to the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 29INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.9%
Feleipe Franks pass intercepted Tyrel Dodson return for no gain to the Fla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:58
Daniel LaCamera 32 yd FG GOOD
-37.6
TD · Q4 14:54
Dre Massey 6 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
+20.2
TD · Q3 11:12
Kellen Mond run for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
-15