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LSU

LSU 17 at Florida 16

FLA
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:08 · Josh Growden punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−6.0Score differential−3.6Pregame prior−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:56: Danny Etling pass complete to Tory Carter for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — LSU win probability +10.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:39: Lamical Perine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +16.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:45: Lamical Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro PAT MISSED) — FLA win probability +13.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:34: Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 27 — LSU win probability +19.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Fla 18 — LSU win probability +11.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:27FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:24LSU 4th & 9 at FLA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:40FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:48FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:08LSU 4th & 17 at LSU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−2.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:01FLA 4th & 7 at LSU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−7.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:25LSU 4th & 7 at FLA 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−5.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:44LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:08LSU 4th & 5 at FLA 48, up 1
    Close callPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:33FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 24, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:56LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−3.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:22FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−6.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:01LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 48, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−3.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:39FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.2%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:22LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:56LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:39FLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:45FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0545% → 46%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
45.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 15 yds Lamical Perine fumbled, recovered by Fla Martez Ivey for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
45.4%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
45.6%
Malik Davis run for 8 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
45.9%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
45.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:4054% → 54%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
45.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 6 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+30
45.9%
Derrick Dillon run for 30 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
45.6%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
45.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 4 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-4
45.9%
Danny Etling sacked by David Reese for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
46.4%
Josh Growden punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:2247% → 47%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
46.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 11 yds to the Fla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
46.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 11 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
47.1%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+10
47.2%
Kadarius Toney run for 10 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
47.5%
Kadarius Toney run for 1 yd to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
47.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Josh HammondSimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+2
46.8%
Johnny Townsend punt for 39 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 2 yds to the LSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 5:0953% → 59%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
46.9%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
47.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-2
47.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 13 yds to the LSU 29 LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Derrick Dillon) to the LSU 14. Derrick Dillon ejected for targeting.Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+12
47.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 12 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
47.2%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+15
47.1%
Russell Gage run for 15 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
46.4%
D.J. Chark run for 8 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+7
46.0%
Darrel Williams run for 7 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
45.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Darrel WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
46.0%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+10
46.2%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete to Davis, Drake, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Dawson, Duke) 10 yards to the FLORIDA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
41.0%
Russell Gage run for 30 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0542% → 42%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.2%
Kadarius Toney run for 5 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-8
42.4%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Devin White for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 22Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+12
41.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 12 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
41.7%
Johnny Townsend punt for 61 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 2 yds to the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 5:0858% → 58%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
42.4%
Darrel Williams run for 6 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+3
42.1%
Russell Gage run for 3 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+6
42.4%
Darrel Williams run for 6 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
41.8%
D.J. Chark run for 5 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-1
41.0%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+15
41.9%
Danny Etling run for 15 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
40.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Austin Deculus) to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+3
41.4%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 12
OWN 39
-7
40.3%
Danny Etling sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+2
41.8%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
42.1%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:5941% → 48%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-9
41.4%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Donnie Alexander for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 14 FLORIDA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Feleipe Franks) to the Fla 14Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 19
OWN 14
+5
41.2%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+18
39.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for 18 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
41.0%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+18
42.0%
Lamical Perine run for 18 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
42.9%
Lamical Perine run for 9 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+25
44.3%
Malik Davis run for 25 yds to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
44.2%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
44.2%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the LSU 4Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
42.7%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Christian LaCouture for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 7Similar
Q2 4:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
47.7%
Eddy Pineiro 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 3:3655% → 67%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.1%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Saahdiq Charles) to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
45.8%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
44.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 15 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
42.5%
Russell Gage run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+6
43.8%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+21
41.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 21 yds to the Fla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
39.0%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete to Chark, D.J., PENALTY FLORIDA pass interference (Henderson, CJ) 15 yards to the FLORIDA24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
38.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrius GuiceSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
38.7%
Danny Etling run for 3 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
38.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
33.3%
Connor Culp 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
37.9%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Greg Gilmore and Glen Logan for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5565% → 80%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.1%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
33.9%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+47
33.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 47 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
31.9%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the Fla 11Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+1
31.8%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Fla 10Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+3
32.2%
Danny Etling run for 3 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
31.0%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Fla 3Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
30.9%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Fla 2Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Tory Carter for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5023% → 41%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.9%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
22.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 12 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
22.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Josh Hammond for 6 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+38
24.8%
Lamical Perine run for 23 yds to the FLORIDA 31 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Arden Key) to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
24.7%
Feleipe Franks run for 12 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
23.7%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.5%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2968% → 69%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.9%
Russell Gage run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
30.8%
Danny Etling run for 1 yd to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
31.0%
Danny Etling run for 3 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+41
31.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 41 yds , Brandon Powell returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:4034% → 52%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
34.1%
Malik Davis run for 11 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
34.4%
Kadarius Toney run for 22 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
37.8%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
37.7%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+6
37.2%
Franks, Feleipe pass incomplete to Hammond, Josh, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Jackson, Donte) 6 yards to the LSU34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
39.3%
Malik Davis run for 8 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+21
39.3%
Malik Davis run for 21 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
39.3%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.2%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the LSU 1Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.2%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:2953% → 55%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
46.9%
D.J. Chark run for 10 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
45.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 5 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
43.6%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
42.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Taven Bryan) to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
41.9%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
42.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+5
43.8%
Danny Etling run for 5 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
44.7%
Josh Growden punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1747% → 44%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-6
46.9%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Fla 17 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Martez Ivey) to the Fla 9Similar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 16
OWN 9
+10
46.1%
Kadarius Toney run for 10 yds to the Fla 19Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
46.8%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+2
45.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 2 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+2
43.6%
Johnny Townsend punt for 59 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 2 yds to the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1156% → 52%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
44.0%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 15Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+3
44.9%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
46.7%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 11
OWN 18
+5
48.3%
FLORIDA Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Kalif Jackson) to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
47.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2750% → 44%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
50.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
49.6%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-7
47.8%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Christian LaCouture and Greg Gilmore for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
43.7%
Johnny Townsend punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:5859% → 62%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
40.7%
Danny Etling run for 7 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+8
37.5%
Derrius Guice run for 8 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
36.2%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
34.1%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
34.4%
Russell Gage run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 9
50
-2
31.4%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
34.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
38.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 48 yds, downed at the Fla 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1044% → 39%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
44.0%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 5Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+13
42.2%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Malik Davis for 13 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
44.5%
Kadarius Toney run for 4 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-5
45.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jawaan Taylor) to the Fla 17Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+8
42.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 8 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
42.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
39.1%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20END OF GAME
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3480% → 95%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
19.9%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+7
16.4%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+2
5.1%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Fla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:34
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 27
-19.2
TD · Q3 7:39
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)
+16.8
TD · Q3 1:45
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro PAT MISSED)
+13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com