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VAN

Vanderbilt 24 at Florida 38

FLA
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:32 · Sam Loy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+23.7Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:51: Caleb Scott 12 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick) — VAN win probability +10.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Eddy Pineiro 21 Yd Field Goal — FLA win probability +5.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:56: Malik Davis 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick) — FLA win probability +13.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:18: Lamical Perine 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick) — FLA win probability +6.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:14: Nathan Marcus 7 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick) — VAN win probability +12.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9VAN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 14:32VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:05FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:32VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:54FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08FLA 4th & 9 at VAN 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:59VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:40FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:43VAN 4th & 4 at FLA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00FLA 4th & 4 at VAN 4, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−9.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:32FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:52VAN 4th & 14 at VAN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:22VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:52FLA 4th & 1 at VAN 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−3.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−3.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:03VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:10FLA 4th & 19 at VAN 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:48VAN 4th & 1 at FLA 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−1.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:38VAN 4th & 5 at FLA 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:42FLA 4th & 1 at VAN 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−1.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:21VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:12FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:17VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:03FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:51VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:56FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:18FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:14VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:42FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2326% → 26%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q1 14:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q1 14:32
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
Sam Loy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2574% → 74%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.8%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
73.7%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+4
73.6%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Mark Thompson for 4 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
73.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2827% → 27%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
73.5%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+1
73.3%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 18Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
73.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
73.4%
Sam Loy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 5:1173% → 75%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
73.3%
Kadarius Toney run for 5 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
73.4%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
73.2%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to C'yontai Lewis for 1 yd to the Fla 47Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
73.0%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
50
+25
73.3%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 25 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
73.4%
Luke Del Rio run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
73.2%
Lamical Perine run for 2 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+17
72.8%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Lamical Perine for 17 yds to the Vandy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
73.0%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the Vandy 1Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.4%
Lamical Perine 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4725% → 31%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.6%
Trent Sherfield run for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
74.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 24 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
73.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Taven Bryan) to the Fla 35Similar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+6
73.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 6 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
73.3%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
73.3%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Fla 24Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+11
73.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 11 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
68.9%
Kalija Lipscomb 13 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:5971% → 70%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.2%
Malik Davis run for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
71.8%
Kadarius Toney run for 11 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
71.9%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Malik Davis for 1 yd to the Fla 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+11
71.7%
Malik Davis run for 11 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
72.1%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Vandy 43Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
71.9%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
71.4%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Kadarius Toney FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jawaan Taylor) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
70.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0230% → 30%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
69.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-1
69.8%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 8Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 11
OWN 8
0
70.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Donaven TennysonSimilar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 11
OWN 8
0
70.5%
Sam Loy punt for 37 yds, downed at the Vandy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:5172% → 77%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
71.8%
Kadarius Toney run for 6 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
71.8%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+10
71.5%
Mark Thompson run for 10 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
72.0%
Mark Thompson run for 3 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
71.9%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 5 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+8
71.2%
Lamical Perine run for 8 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
76.8%
Lamical Perine 13 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0425% → 37%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
75.1%
Ralph Webb run for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
74.8%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+21
74.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for 21 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
73.8%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+28
73.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 28 yds to the Fla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
63.1%
Caleb Scott 12 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0569% → 67%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-9
68.8%
Luke Del Rio sacked by Jonathan Wynn for a loss of 9 yards to the Fla 14Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 19
OWN 14
+6
68.3%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Fla 20Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+11
67.1%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Brandon Powell for 11 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+52
67.2%
Johnny Townsend punt for 52 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:4735% → 41%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
65.2%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
65.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the Vandy 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Vandy Ralph WebbSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+15
65.7%
FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Participation (Jabari Zuniga) to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
64.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+35
65.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Donaven Tennyson for 35 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
59.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
59.8%
Blasingame, Khari rush for 20 yards to the FLORIDA10, PENALTY VANDERBILT holding (Reagan, Bruno) 10 yards to the FLORIDA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 20
OPP 40
0
62.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Donaven TennysonSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+11
62.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 11 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+5
63.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Participation (5 Yards) to the Fla 24Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
58.9%
Tommy Openshaw 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12END OF HALF
11 plays · 71 yds · 0:3462% → 68%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mark Thompson for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
59.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mark Thompson for 16 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+49
62.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 49 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
64.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Freddie SwainSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
64.5%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
62.8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mark Thompson for 5 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
67.8%
Eddy Pineiro 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2367% → 65%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.9%
Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
66.7%
Kadarius Toney pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
65.3%
Feleipe Franks run for 5 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+4
65.1%
Johnny Townsend punt for 60 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 4 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:3237% → 35%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+19
63.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 19 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
62.2%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Jachai Polite for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 27 Kyle Shurmur fumbled, forced by Jachai Polite, recovered by Vandy Caleb Scott , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+1
63.2%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 14
OWN 28
0
64.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
64.9%
Sam Loy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brandon Powell at the Fla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:4566% → 83%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
65.5%
Feleipe Franks run for 1 yd to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+11
65.3%
Franks, Feleipe pass incomplete to Powell, Brandon, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (Tarpley III, Arnold) 11 yards to the FLORIDA39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
66.6%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+16
68.0%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Moral Stephens for 16 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
68.6%
Lamical Perine run for no gain to the Vandy 41Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
68.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Malik Davis for 5 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+6
68.0%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+29
69.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Moral Stephens for 29 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.8%
Malik Davis 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2423% → 22%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.7%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
74.7%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
76.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
77.9%
Sam Loy punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:5781% → 94%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.9%
Mark Thompson run for no gain to the Fla 35Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
80.5%
Mark Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+18
79.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
50
0
82.8%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 10
50
+2
82.5%
Franks, Feleipe pass incomplete to Massey, Dre, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (Williams, Joejuan) 2 yards to the VANDERBILT48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
82.9%
Mark Thompson run for 6 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
84.0%
Mark Thompson run for 3 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-4
83.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-5
83.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Brett Heggie) to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
82.6%
Mark Thompson run for 9 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+4
84.0%
Lamical Perine run for 4 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+33
86.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 33 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
87.2%
Feleipe Franks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 4Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
87.2%
Lamical Perine run for 3 yds to the Vandy 1Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.0%
Lamical Perine 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:579% → 9%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.4%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
90.9%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 37Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
90.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Sam DobbsSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
91.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cece Jefferson) to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
90.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-3
91.2%
Sam Loy punt for 47 yds , Brandon Powell returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 8 Brandon Powell fumbled, recovered by Fla Brandon PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
14 plays · 49 yds · 5:4194% → 95%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
93.7%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 12Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+18
93.9%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Fla 15 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
94.5%
FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (DeAndre Goolsby) to the Fla 20Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+15
94.2%
Malik Davis run for 15 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
94.8%
Malik Davis run for 7 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
95.1%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
95.5%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 2
50
+3
95.5%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
95.7%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Mark Thompson for 13 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
95.8%
Mark Thompson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 14
OPP 38
0
95.7%
Mark Thompson run for no gain to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 14
OPP 38
0
95.9%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 14
OPP 38
-5
95.4%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
95.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 20 yds, downed at the Vandy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 3:486% → 16%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
93.8%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 20Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+15
94.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 15 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
93.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 6 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
93.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 4 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
93.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+9
93.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 9 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+6
94.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 6 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.8%
Kyle Shurmur run for no gain to the Fla 40Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
94.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 9 yds to the Fla 31Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-4
94.5%
Khari Blasingame run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+28
97.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 28 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Donaven TennysonSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
84.1%
Nathan Marcus 7 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:2895% → 98%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
94.9%
Lamical Perine run for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+7
94.7%
Lamical Perine run for 7 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-1
94.9%
Lamical Perine run for 9 yds to the Vandy 37 FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+8
95.7%
Malik Davis run for 8 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+39
98.4%
Malik Davis 39 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:161% → 1%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 1:0999% → 99%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 28
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:56
Malik Davis 1 Yd Run (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
+13.5
TD · Q4 3:14
Nathan Marcus 7 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)
-12.5
TD · Q2 6:51
Caleb Scott 12 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)
-10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com