Try the model
FLA

Florida 28 at Kentucky 27

UK
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Kroger Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:19 · Johnny Townsend punt for 59 yds , Charles Walker returns for 52 yds to the Fla 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense−0.4Pregame prior−7.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:16: Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 45 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +14.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:11: Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 23 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +14.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:33: Austin MacGinnis 50 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +8.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:58: Brandon Powell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +18.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:43: Luke Del Rio pass complete to Freddie Swain for 5 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK) — FLA win probability +60.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UK 4th & 11 at FLA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:29FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:02FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:40UK 4th & 6 at UK 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:16UK 4th & 10 at FLA 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    47.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:19FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:16FLA 4th & 3 at UK 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−2.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:16UK 4th & 18 at FLA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:11FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−3.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:18UK 4th & 9 at UK 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:33UK 4th & 5 at FLA 32, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:58UK 4th & 15 at UK 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−4.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:47FLA 4th & 3 at UK 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%−4.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−6.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:47FLA 4th & 1 at UK 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−5.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−16.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:21UK 4th & 10 at FLA 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.2%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.7%−7.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:06UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:16FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:24UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:16FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:11UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:58FLA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:43FLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−5.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
39.4%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+22
39.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 22 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
39.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
39.4%
[SHOT], Benny Snell rush for 4 yards to the UF36 (Henderson,C.), PENALTY UK holding (Kyle Meadows) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
50
0
39.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
50
+9
39.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 9 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
39.4%
Matt Panton punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
40.3%
Lamical Perine run for 11 yds to the Fla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
40.3%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Brandon Powell for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 21Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+9
40.3%
Lamical Perine run for 9 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
40.2%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 31Similar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+17
40.3%
Johnny Townsend punt for 61 yds , Charles Walker returns for 17 yds to the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3941% → 47%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
41.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
41.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 11 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
41.8%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 9 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+3
41.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 3 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
41.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 21 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
42.0%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Jabari Zuniga for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 21Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 12
OWN 0
0
41.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Fla 21Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-5
42.0%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 18 yards to the UF3 (Wilson,M.), PENALTY UK ineligible downfield on pass (C.J. Conrad) 5 yards to the UF26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 17
OPP 26
+12
41.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Fla 14Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
47.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
46.5%
[SHOT], Franks,F. rush for 1 yard to the UF15, out-of-bounds (T.J. Carter), PENALTY UF holding (Perine,L.) 7 yards to the UF7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+15
46.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Fla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
46.4%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 19 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
45.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 8 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-2
45.3%
Malik Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 47Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
45.6%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Brandon Powell, broken up by Jamar WatsonSimilar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
46.4%
Johnny Townsend punt for 48 yds, downed at the Kent 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
48.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+6
48.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 6 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
47.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 1
OWN 15
-5
47.3%
KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 10Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 6
OWN 10
+5
47.2%
Matt Panton punt for 43 yds , Brandon Powell returns for 5 yds to the Fla 15 FLORIDA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Fla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:0252% → 58%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
48.5%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 11 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
47.9%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
48.2%
Mark Thompson run for 11 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
42.0%
Kadarius Toney run for 36 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
45.1%
Sihiem King run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
50
+5
46.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
46.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 5 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
46.5%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 4 yds to the Fla 36Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-4
46.5%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
45.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Benny Snell Jr.Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
44.4%
Matt Panton punt for 39 yds, downed at the Fla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
45.0%
Lamical Perine run for 1 yd to the Fla 2Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+5
45.2%
Lamical Perine run for 5 yds to the Fla 7Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 7
-4
45.9%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Feleipe Franks for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 3Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+52
46.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 59 yds , Charles Walker returns for 52 yds to the Fla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:3950% → 58%
Q2 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
49.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Fla 9Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
58.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0845% → 56%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.9%
Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
54.1%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 7 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
53.9%
Malik Davis run for 7 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
52.8%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
52.7%
Tyrie Cleveland run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 8
50
+3
52.4%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+2
52.6%
Mark Thompson run for 2 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+45
43.6%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 45 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:0048% → 47%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
48.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 1 yd to the Kent 28 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
50.6%
1st and 10, PENALTY UF personal foul (Joseph,V.) 15 yards to the UF42, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
51.4%
Sihiem King run for 21 yds to the Fla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
52.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Kayaune Ross, broken up by Marco WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-5
52.1%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Khairi Clark and Cece Jefferson for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 15
OPP 26
-3
49.4%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Cece Jefferson for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 18
OPP 29
+48
47.4%
Austin MacGinnis 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
44.6%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Fla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.6%
Kadarius Toney run for 3 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
46.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to Brandon Powell, broken up by Courtney LoveSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+18
47.5%
Johnny Townsend punt for 52 yds , Charles Walker returns for 18 yds to the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:4851% → 67%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
51.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
50.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
50
+27
52.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 27 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
66.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 23 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.4%
Feleipe Franks pass incomplete to DeAndre Goolsby, broken up by Eli BrownSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.6%
Mark Thompson run for 1 yd to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
63.5%
Feleipe Franks sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
64.6%
Johnny Townsend punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:5165% → 75%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
64.9%
Sihiem King run for 30 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
68.0%
Sihiem King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 36Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+12
67.4%
Stephen Johnson run for 12 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
68.0%
KENTUCKY Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Fla 29Similar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+24
67.6%
Lynn Bowden Jr. pass complete to Sihiem King for 24 yds to the Fla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
68.0%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK delay of game 5 yards to the UF10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
68.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Fla 9Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
68.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 3 yds to the Fla 6Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-18
66.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 0
OPP 24
+42
74.8%
Austin MacGinnis 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17INT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0026% → 29%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.8%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 8 yds to the Fla 33Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
72.2%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
72.9%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Brandon Powell for 18 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
70.7%
Luke Del Rio pass intercepted Darius West return for 21 yds to the Kent 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0078% → 75%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
78.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-6
78.2%
Sihiem King run for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 41Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+6
76.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
75.3%
Matt Panton punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:1223% → 20%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
77.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Fred Johnson) to the Fla 15Similar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+7
77.4%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 7 yds to the Fla 22Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
77.4%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
77.2%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
76.4%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Brandon PowellSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
77.1%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Malik Davis for 11 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
78.7%
Luke Del Rio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
79.4%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+5
79.7%
Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
79.6%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Brandon Powell, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20FG
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5284% → 92%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
83.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 11 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
83.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Fla 35Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+3
83.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
83.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin Richardson, broken up by CJ HendersonSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
91.6%
Austin MacGinnis 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2911% → 32%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+50
89.3%
Kadarius Toney pass complete to Tyrie Cleveland for 50 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
86.5%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Kadarius Toney for 1 yd to the Kent 29Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+6
86.7%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+9
87.1%
Malik Davis run for 9 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
86.2%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
86.2%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
68.0%
Brandon Powell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.0%
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
83.0%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Taven Bryan and David Reese for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
81.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
80.8%
Matt Panton punt for 38 yds, downed at the Fla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23TD
17 plays · 58 yds · 5:4828% → 83%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
72.4%
Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
70.7%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
70.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 46Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+7
72.4%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Brandon Powell for 7 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
69.6%
Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
70.6%
Luke Del Rio pass incomplete to Tyrie ClevelandSimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+4
71.9%
Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+10
73.5%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Mark Thompson for 10 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
67.9%
[SHOT], Del Rio,L. pass complete to Powell,B. for 23 yards to the UK7 (Jordan Griffin), PENALTY UF illegal touching (Powell,B.) 0 yards to the UK30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
68.3%
Malik Davis run for 2 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+7
71.0%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to DeAndre Goolsby for 7 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+7
71.0%
Malik Davis run for 7 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
66.5%
Brandon Powell run for 4 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
66.5%
Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the Kent 5Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
17.2%
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Freddie Swain for 5 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24MISSED FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:4340% → 18%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
40.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 11 yds to the Fla 36 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
47.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles WalkerSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
46.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Duke DawsonSimilar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+14
37.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 14 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
51.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-10
51.6%
[SHOT], Benny Snell rush for 10 yards to the UF25 (Jefferson,C.), PENALTY UK holding (Nick Haynes) 10 yards to the UF45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+6
24.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 6 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+57
17.5%
Austin MacGinnis 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:43
Luke Del Rio pass complete to Freddie Swain for 5 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)
-60.4
TD · Q4 7:58
Brandon Powell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Eddy Pineiro KICK)
-18.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com