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NCSU

NC State 28 at South Carolina 35

SC
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:54 · Joseph Charlton punt for 42 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for no gain to the SCaro 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+5.9Home team on offense+19.9Garbage-time factor+10.7Score differential+9.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Time remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:02: Deebo Samuel 6 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Alexander Woznick Kick) — SC win probability +4.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: Jakobi Meyers 4 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Carson Wise Kick) — NCSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:54: Deebo Samuel 39 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Alexander Woznick Kick) — SC win probability +10.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:08: Rico Dowdle 7 Yd Run (Alexander Woznick Kick) — SC win probability +7.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:21: Jaylen Samuels 1 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Carson Wise Kick) — NCSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:42NCSU 4th & 2 at SC 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:45SC 4th & 6 at SC 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:33NCSU 4th & 7 at SC 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−5.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:47SC 4th & 19 at SC 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:19NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:23NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:38SC 4th & 7 at SC 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:35NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 28, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:54SC 4th & 9 at SC 4, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:21NCSU 4th & 1 at SC 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−9.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:58NCSU 4th & 20 at NCSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−2.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:49SC 4th & 18 at SC 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−5.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:34NCSU 4th & 5 at SC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−3.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:06SC 4th & 8 at SC 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:06NCSU 4th & 10 at SC 10, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.4 ptsWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%−6.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−15.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 14:47SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:56NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:53SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:46NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:02SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:09NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:54SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:08SC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:21NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 2TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3228% → 30%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
72.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 13 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
72.0%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
72.0%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+10
72.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 10 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
72.0%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
72.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 11
50
+9
72.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 9 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+5
72.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 5 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
72.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 15 yds to the SCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
71.8%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 26Similar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+9
71.9%
Jaylen Samuels run for 9 yds to the SCaro 17Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+7
71.8%
Nyheim Hines run for 7 yds to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
71.9%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the SCaro 6Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
70.0%
Ryan Finley 6 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:3971% → 74%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
70.6%
Rico Dowdle run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 19Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+8
70.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 8 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+10
70.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 10 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
70.6%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
70.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 5 yds to the SCaro 42Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+8
70.6%
Jake Bentley run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
50
0
70.9%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
50
+7
70.8%
Rico Dowdle run for 7 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+8
70.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 8 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
71.1%
Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+34
74.3%
Rico Dowdle 34 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Alexander Woznick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4427% → 33%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
72.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
72.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 8 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
71.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Reggie Gallaspy IISimilar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
72.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+29
71.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Cole Cook for 29 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
71.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 4 yds to the SCaro 13Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+11
71.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 11 yds to the SCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.6%
Nyheim Hines 2 Yd Run (Carson Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4469% → 68%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
69.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 4 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
69.4%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
68.8%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
68.2%
Joseph Charlton punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1932% → 32%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
68.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 8 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+6
67.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 6 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
67.1%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
67.9%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 15
OWN 33
-5
68.5%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Tyler Jones) to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 20
OWN 28
+12
68.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 12 yds Stephen Louis fumbled, forced by Chris Lammons, recovered by SCaro Rashad Fenton at the NCst 40.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:5070% → 75%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
70.3%
Rico Dowdle run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
69.7%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+13
69.0%
Jake Bentley run for 13 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
70.6%
Deebo Samuel run for 5 yds to the NCSt 24 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+26
70.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 26 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
70.5%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the NCSt 6Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.5%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q2 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.1%
Deebo Samuel 6 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Alexander Woznick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:1226% → 26%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
73.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
73.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 1 yd to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
73.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 6 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+7
73.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 7 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
72.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Nyheim HinesSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
73.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 11 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
72.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 47Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+32
73.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 32 yds to the SCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
71.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 5 yds to the SCaro 10Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-2
71.3%
Nyheim Hines run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 12Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
72.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
74.0%
Carson Wise 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3676% → 74%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
75.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 12 yds to the SCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
75.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 17 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
77.3%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
77.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Ty'Son Williams for 5 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-9
76.8%
Jake Bentley sacked by Shawn Boone for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 45Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 14
OWN 45
-5
74.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 40Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 19
OWN 40
0
74.0%
Joseph Charlton punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 1:3425% → 43%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
74.9%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
75.2%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+7
75.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 7 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
74.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for 11 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
73.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 13 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
72.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 16 yds to the SCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
70.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 7 yds to the SCaro 19Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-15
72.0%
Finley, Ryan pass incomplete to Louis, Stephen, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Louis, Stephen) 15 yards to the SOCAROLINA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 18
OPP 34
+6
73.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 6 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+24
74.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 24 yds to the SCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.7%
Jakobi Meyers 4 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Carson Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
65.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3238% → 37%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
60.4%
Nyheim Hines run for 8 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
59.9%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
60.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-1
61.5%
Ryan Finley sacked by Keir Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 11
OWN 40
+26
63.3%
A.J. Cole III punt for 37 yds , Chris Lammons returns for 26 yds to the SCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:2568% → 79%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
68.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 46Similar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 5
OPP 46
+4
68.6%
Rico Dowdle run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
68.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 3 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
78.8%
Deebo Samuel 39 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Alexander Woznick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:4525% → 23%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
75.3%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 5
OWN 33
-6
74.0%
Stephen Louis run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+6
75.8%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 6 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-20
76.6%
Ryan Finley sacked by Dante Sawyer for a loss of 20 yards to the NCSt 13 Ryan Finley fumbled, recovered by SCaro Bryson Allen-Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:5780% → 88%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
79.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 18Similar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+11
80.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 11 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
88.4%
Rico Dowdle 7 Yd Run (Alexander Woznick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:1913% → 12%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
86.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
86.8%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+5
87.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 5 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
87.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
87.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 2 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.7%
Ryan Finley sacked by D.J. Wonnum for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
88.2%
A.J. Cole III punt for 44 yds , Chris Lammons returns for no gain to the SCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4290% → 90%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.8%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
90.1%
Rico Dowdle run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 33Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+6
90.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 6 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
90.0%
Joseph Charlton punt for 40 yds, downed at the NCSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3611% → 10%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
89.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
89.5%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-5
89.7%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 17
OWN 14
+14
89.7%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 14 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
89.7%
A.J. Cole III punt for 69 yds , Chris Lammons returns for no gain to the SCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1492% → 92%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
92.1%
Rico Dowdle run for no gain to the SCaro 3Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+6
92.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 6 yds to the SCaro 9Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 4
OWN 9
0
92.5%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Shi SmithSimilar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 4
OWN 9
-5
92.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 4Similar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
92.1%
Joseph Charlton punt for 42 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for no gain to the SCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:2111% → 21%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
88.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+19
89.3%
Nyheim Hines run for 19 yds to the SCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
88.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 7 yds to the SCaro 14Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
88.7%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the SCaro 12Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+5
89.5%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 5 yds to the SCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
88.9%
Nyheim Hines run for 6 yds to the SCaro 1Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.0%
Nyheim Hines run for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.0%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.0%
Jaylen Samuels 1 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Carson Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5586% → 85%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 5 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
85.2%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted Johnathan Alston return for no gain to the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1219% → 16%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
81.3%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 7 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+21
79.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to C.J. Riley for 21 yds to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
78.6%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+6
78.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 6 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 2
OPP 33
-15
78.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the SCaro 48Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 17
OPP 48
-3
82.1%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Nyheim Hines for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 20
OWN 49
0
84.0%
A.J. Cole III punt for 46 yds, downed at the SCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:5387% → 88%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+19
87.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 19 yds to the SCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.2%
Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd to the SCaro 26Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
88.0%
Jake Bentley sacked by Johnathan Alston for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 17Similar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+29
88.3%
Joseph Charlton punt for 64 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for 29 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:0418% → 13%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
82.5%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jakobi Meyers for 12 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
81.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
81.9%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 5 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
82.7%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+4
87.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0893% → 93%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
93.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 29Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+6
93.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 6 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-2
93.9%
Jake Bentley run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 33Similar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+11
93.3%
Joseph Charlton punt for 50 yds , Nyheim Hines returns for 11 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26DOWNS
18 plays · 62 yds · 2:489% → 9%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
90.6%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Stephen Louis for 9 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
89.1%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Jakobi MeyersSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+14
89.6%
Nyheim Hines run for 14 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
88.3%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
90.0%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 4 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+15
89.3%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (JaMarcus King) to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
86.2%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
86.4%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Kelvin Harmon for 9 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
86.4%
Reggie Gallaspy II run for 2 yds to the SCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
85.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
86.2%
Ryan Finley pass complete to Reggie Gallaspy II for 11 yds to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
85.6%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
84.0%
Ryan Finley sacked by Bryson Allen-Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 10Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.5%
Ryan Finley pass incomplete to Kelvin HarmonSimilar
Q4 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
91.0%
Ryan Finley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:09
Jakobi Meyers 4 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Carson Wise Kick)
-13.3
TD · Q4 12:21
Jaylen Samuels 1 Yd pass from Ryan Finley (Carson Wise Kick)
-11
TD · Q3 11:54
Deebo Samuel 39 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Alexander Woznick Kick)
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com